Causes of Output Decline in Economic Transition

Causes of Output Decline in Economic Transition
Author: Karen Macours
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2000
Genre:
ISBN:

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This paper analyzes how policy reforms and other factors have effected agricultural output in Central and Eastern Europe since 1989. Price liberalization and subsidy cuts caused a decline in relative prices for agriculture, contributing to almost half of the output decline. Transition uncertainty and severe drought each caused an average output fall of around 10%. Privatization, farm restructuring, and the associated disruptions affected output through input adjustments and production efficiency changes. Their impact differs between countries, as it is conditional on initial conditions and reform and liberalization in the rest of the economy.

Output Decline in Eastern Europe

Output Decline in Eastern Europe
Author: R. Holzmann
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 386
Release: 2012-12-06
Genre: Political Science
ISBN: 940110283X

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The first phase of transition to a market economy in Central and Eastern Europe was characterized by a sharp output decline. The fall in real GDP exceeded 20% while real industrial production decreased even by 40%. Output Decline in Eastern Europe aims at providing comprehensive, multi-factor explanations for this unique, painful experience. Various hypotheses are analyzed: credit and fiscal policies may have been too tight; the collapse of the CMEA and the USSR came as a shock; domestic producers were neither experienced, nor flexible enough to adjust the output to new patterns of demand. Output Decline in Eastern Europe contains a unique combination of authors from East and West who extensively analyze new data based on country studies. Understanding the causes of recent output decline, the subject matter of this volume may help to assess the prospects for Eastern Europe. The book is addressed to researchers and students as well as interested officials who deal with the transition of formerly centrally planned economies in Central and Eastern Europe.

The Economics of Post-Communist Transition

The Economics of Post-Communist Transition
Author: Olivier Blanchard
Publisher: OUP Oxford
Total Pages: 164
Release: 1997-08-28
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0191521779

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Transition in Central and Eastern Europe has led to a U-shaped response of output: a sharp decline in output followed by recovery. Most of the countries of Central Europe seem now firmly on the upside; most of the countries of Eastern Europe are still close to the bottom of the U: an optimistic view is that they are now negotiating the turn. Olivier Blanchard, a distinguished economist who has worked on transition since its beginning, is one of the first to present a unified analysis of the process of transition. The U-shaped response of output, its causes and its implications, are the subject of this book. The text is split into four chapters. The first reviews the facts; the second focuses on the two basic mechanisms underlying transition: reallocation and restructuring; the third looks more closely at a number of issues, from the interactions between restructuring and privatization to the nature of the labour market in transition; the fourth chapter pulls the material together in an analytical model of transition. This model is then used to discuss policy issues, from the design of privatization to the role of fiscal policy in transition.

The Overburdened Economy

The Overburdened Economy
Author: Lloyd J. Dumas
Publisher: Univ of California Press
Total Pages: 316
Release: 1986
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9780520061699

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Argues that the American economy has continued to decine since the late 1960s and includes ideas for America's revitalization.

China's Economic Rise

China's Economic Rise
Author: Congressional Research Service
Publisher: Createspace Independent Publishing Platform
Total Pages: 52
Release: 2017-09-17
Genre:
ISBN: 9781976466953

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Prior to the initiation of economic reforms and trade liberalization 36 years ago, China maintained policies that kept the economy very poor, stagnant, centrally-controlled, vastly inefficient, and relatively isolated from the global economy. Since opening up to foreign trade and investment and implementing free market reforms in 1979, China has been among the world's fastest-growing economies, with real annual gross domestic product (GDP) growth averaging nearly 10% through 2016. In recent years, China has emerged as a major global economic power. It is now the world's largest economy (on a purchasing power parity basis), manufacturer, merchandise trader, and holder of foreign exchange reserves.The global economic crisis that began in 2008 greatly affected China's economy. China's exports, imports, and foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows declined, GDP growth slowed, and millions of Chinese workers reportedly lost their jobs. The Chinese government responded by implementing a $586 billion economic stimulus package and loosening monetary policies to increase bank lending. Such policies enabled China to effectively weather the effects of the sharp global fall in demand for Chinese products, but may have contributed to overcapacity in several industries and increased debt by Chinese firms and local government. China's economy has slowed in recent years. Real GDP growth has slowed in each of the past six years, dropping from 10.6% in 2010 to 6.7% in 2016, and is projected to slow to 5.7% by 2022.The Chinese government has attempted to steer the economy to a "new normal" of slower, but more stable and sustainable, economic growth. Yet, concerns have deepened in recent years over the health of the Chinese economy. On August 11, 2015, the Chinese government announced that the daily reference rate of the renminbi (RMB) would become more "market-oriented." Over the next three days, the RMB depreciated against the dollar and led to charges that China's goal was to boost exports to help stimulate the economy (which some suspect is in worse shape than indicated by official Chinese economic statistics). Concerns over the state of the Chinese economy appear to have often contributed to volatility in global stock indexes in recent years.The ability of China to maintain a rapidly growing economy in the long run will likely depend largely on the ability of the Chinese government to implement comprehensive economic reforms that more quickly hasten China's transition to a free market economy; rebalance the Chinese economy by making consumer demand, rather than exporting and fixed investment, the main engine of economic growth; boost productivity and innovation; address growing income disparities; and enhance environmental protection. The Chinese government has acknowledged that its current economic growth model needs to be altered and has announced several initiatives to address various economic challenges. In November 2013, the Communist Party of China held the Third Plenum of its 18th Party Congress, which outlined a number of broad policy reforms to boost competition and economic efficiency. For example, the communique stated that the market would now play a "decisive" role in allocating resources in the economy. At the same time, however, the communique emphasized the continued important role of the state sector in China's economy. In addition, many foreign firms have complained that the business climate in China has worsened in recent years. Thus, it remains unclear how committed the Chinese government is to implementing new comprehensive economic reforms.China's economic rise has significant implications for the United States and hence is of major interest to Congress. This report provides background on China's economic rise; describes its current economic structure; identifies the challenges China faces to maintain economic growth; and discusses the challenges, opportunities, and implications of China's economic rise.

Globalization, Capital Market Imperfections and Decline InShort-run Output Volatility of World Economies

Globalization, Capital Market Imperfections and Decline InShort-run Output Volatility of World Economies
Author: Bruno Coric
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2008
Genre:
ISBN:

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This dissertation investigates the causes of recent declines in GDP growth volatility known as the 'Great Moderation'. Contrary to the existing literature, which concentrates mainly on the case of output volatility decline in the US, we took a broader perspective. In particular, we examined a large sample of economies to identify possible changes in GDP growth volatility over the period 1961-2005. The results of our empirical analysis suggest that: (a) a considerable number of countries experienced change(s) in short-run volatility over that period; (b) in most cases the change(s) directed countries toward less volatile output; (c) the decline in GDP growth volatility is not only characteristic of developed economies; rather, it can be found in economies belonging to all income groups; (d) there is no distinctive pattern of change in volatility that prevails among these countries; (e) the timing of the detected break points is spread through all decades; hence, it seems that the year 1984, in which the onset of lower volatility was detected for the US by the previous literature, is not a global turning point in volatility. As far as the cause(s) of the changes in GDP growth volatility is . considered, these empirical findings cannot distinguish among the various existing explanations. However, our results open the possibility that the recent tendency towards attenuation of short-run output volatility in the world's national economies is caused by some common factor. In that respect, we put special emphasis on the potential role of economic globalization in that process. Based on existing theory, we present the mechanism by which some aspects of economic globalization may cause reduction in GDP growth volatility by reducing the strength of the Financial Accelerator. Finally, our empirical findings about the changes in GDP growth volatility are utilized to construct a country-level panel data sample to test the empirical relevance of the proposed mechanism, which is then assessed by means of panel regression analysis. The results of our empirical analysis support the tested hypothesis. In particular, the results suggest that the larger international diversification of economic agents' net worth consequent upon globalization is associated with lower GDP growth volatility.

Output Decline and Government Expenditures in European Transition Economies

Output Decline and Government Expenditures in European Transition Economies
Author: Mr.Ke-young Chu
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 34
Release: 1994-06-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1451961065

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This paper discusses the role of government expenditure policies in the decline in aggregate output in European transition economies. It is argued that there is little evidence for the hypothesis that more expansionary expenditure policies would have helped to mitigate the output decline. While measurement problems allow for very preliminary conclusions, it appears that government expenditures were, generally, not a binding constraint for output. In those cases where it could be argued that government expenditures were a binding constraint, they were usually not the only one. Government expenditure levels still remain on the high side, at least when compared with European market-based economies, and there exists few reasons for pursuing expansionary expenditure policies to lift European transition economies out of the “transitional recession.” While raising expenditure levels per se is an unappealing policy choice, a further reordering of expenditure priorities is desirable. In particular, increases in the share of government expenditures on capital--human and physical--are needed to improve long-run output potential.

Output Decline in Transition

Output Decline in Transition
Author: International Monetary Fund
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 79
Release: 1998-04-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1451974396

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This paper presents a detailed analysis of the output decline in Kazakhstan in the early years of the transition. The decline is documented at the aggregate and sectoral levels, and the quality of the available data is reviewed. A growth accounting framework quantifies the productivity slowdown in Kazakhstan and illustrates how excessive capital accumulation under central planning has contributed to the output decline. In addition, strong evidence is found that disorganization and inherited sectoral misallocation have played a significant role. Credit contractions and reductions in aggregate demand may have had an effect, but clear patterns of causality cannot be established.