Can Negative Interest Rates Really Affect Option Pricing? Empirical Evidence from an Explicitly Solvable Stochastic Volatility Model

Can Negative Interest Rates Really Affect Option Pricing? Empirical Evidence from an Explicitly Solvable Stochastic Volatility Model
Author: Maria Cristina Recchioni
Publisher:
Total Pages: 38
Release: 2016
Genre:
ISBN:

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The profound financial crisis generated by the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the European sovereign debt crisis in 2011 have caused negative values of government bond yields both in the U.S.A. and in the EURO area. This paper investigates whether the use of models which allow for negative interest rate can improve option pricing and implied volatility forecasting. This is done with special attention to Foreign eXchange and index options. To this end, we carried out an empirical analysis of the prices of call and put options on the U.S. S&P 500 index as well as on the Eurodollar futures using a generalization of the Heston model in the stochastic interest rate framework. Specifically, the dynamics of the option's underlying asset is described by two factors: a stochastic variance and a stochastic interest rate. The volatility is not allowed to be negative while the interest rate is. Explicit formulas for the transition probability density function and moments are derived. These formulas are used to efficiently estimate the model parameters. Three empirical analyses are illustrated. The first two show that the use of models which allow for negative interest rates can efficiently reproduce implied volatility and forecast option prices (i.e. S&P index and foreign exchange options). The last one studies how the U.S. three month government bond yield affects the U.S. S&P 500 index.

Negative Interest Rates and Financial Stability

Negative Interest Rates and Financial Stability
Author: Karol Rogowicz
Publisher: Taylor & Francis
Total Pages: 259
Release: 2022-12-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1000787826

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This book sheds new light on a recently introduced monetary tool – negative interest rates policy (NIRP). It provides in-depth insight into this phenomenon, conducted by the central banks in several economies, for example, the Eurozone, Switzerland and Japan, and its possible impact on systemic risk. Although it has been introduced as a temporary policy instrument, it may remain widely used for a longer period and by a greater range of central banks than initially expected, thus the book explores its effects and implications on the banking sector and financial markets, with a particular focus on potentially adverse consequences. There is a strong accent on the uniqueness of negative policy rates in the context of financial stability concerns. The authors assess whether NIRP has any – or in principle a stronger – impact on systemic risk than conventional monetary policy. The book is targeted at presenting and evaluating the initial experiences of NIRP policy during normal, i.e. pre-COVID, times, rather than in periods in which pre-established macroeconomic relations are rapidly disrupted or, specifically, when the source of the disruption is not purely economic in nature, unlike in systemic crisis. The authors adopt both theoretical and practical approaches to explore the key issues and outline the policy implications for both monetary and macroprudential authorities, with respect to negative interest rate policy, thus the book will provide a useful guide for policymakers, academics, advanced students and researchers of financial economics and international finance.

The First Outstanding 50 Years of “Università Politecnica delle Marche”

The First Outstanding 50 Years of “Università Politecnica delle Marche”
Author: Sauro Longhi
Publisher: Springer Nature
Total Pages: 212
Release: 2020-01-03
Genre: Science
ISBN: 3030338797

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The book describes significant multidisciplinary research findings at the Università Politecnica delle Marche and the expected future advances. It addresses some of the most dramatic challenges posed by today’s fast-growing, global society and the changes it has caused, while also discussing solutions to improve the wellbeing of human beings. The book covers the main research achievements made in the social sciences and humanities, and includes chapters that focus on understanding mechanisms that are relevant to all aspects of economic and social interactions among individuals. In line with Giorgio Fuà’s contribution, the interdisciplinary research being pursued at the Faculty of Economics of Università Politecnica delle Marche is aimed at interpreting the process of economic development in all of its facets, both at the national and local level, with a particular focus on profit and non-profit organizations. Various disciplines are covered, from economics to sociology, history, statistics, mathematics, law, accounting, finance and management.

Regulation of Finance and Accounting

Regulation of Finance and Accounting
Author: David Procházka
Publisher: Springer Nature
Total Pages: 462
Release: 2022-10-27
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 3030998738

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This edition provides a mix of research perspectives to examine the economic and non-economic outcomes of global developments in financial regulation, monetary and fiscal measures, or sustainable development, with a tailored focus on specifics in emerging and transitioning countries. The volume combines a mix of approaches to investigate relevant newly emerged topics (e.g., economics of emissions, corporate social responsibility reporting) as well as traditional issues requiring new approaches (e.g., exchange rate mechanisms, investment strategies, the impact of corporate reporting on economic fundamentals). Such a comprehensive view of contemporary economic phenomena makes the volume attractive not only to academia, but also to regulators and policymakers, when deliberating on the potential outcomes of competing regulatory mechanisms.

Empirical Performance of Alternative Option Pricing Models

Empirical Performance of Alternative Option Pricing Models
Author: Zhiwu Chen
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2000
Genre:
ISBN:

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Substantial progress has been made in extending the Black-Scholes model to incorporate such features as stochastic volatility, stochastic interest rates and jumps.On the empirical front, however, it is not yet known whether and by how much each generalized feature will improve option pricing and hedging performance. This paper fills this gap by first developing an implementable option model in closed form that allows volatility, interest rates and jumps to bestochastic and that is parsimonious in the number of parameters. The model includes many known ones as special cases. Delta-neutral and single-instrument minimum-variance hedging strategies are derived analytically. Using Samp;P 500 options, we examine a set of alternative models from three perspectives: (1) internal consistency of implied parameters/volatility with relevant time-series data, (2)out-of-sample pricing and (3) hedging performance. The models of focus include the benchmark Black-Scholes formula and the ones that respectively allow for (i) stochastic volatility, (ii) both stochastic volatility and stochastic interest rates, and (iii) stochastic volatility and jumps.Overall, incorporating both stochastic volatility and random jumps produces the best pricing performance and the most internally-consistent implied-volatility process. Its implied volatility does not quot;smilequot; across moneyness. But, for hedging, adding either jumps or stochastic interest rates does not seem to improve performance any further once stochastic volatility is taken into account.

Empirical Performance of Option Pricing Models with Stochastic Local Volatility

Empirical Performance of Option Pricing Models with Stochastic Local Volatility
Author: Greg Orosi
Publisher:
Total Pages: 16
Release: 2014
Genre:
ISBN:

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We examine the empirical performance of several stochastic local volatility models that are the extensions of the Heston stochastic volatility model. Our results indicate that the stochastic volatility model with quadratic local volatility significantly outperforms the stochastic volatility model with CEV type local volatility. Moreover, we compare the performance of these models to several other benchmarks and find that the quadratic local volatility model compares well to the best performing option pricing models reported in the current literature for European-style S&P500 index options. Our results also indicate that the model with quadratic local volatility reproduces the characteristics of the implied volatility surface more accurately than the Heston model. Finally, we demonstrate that capturing the shape of the implied volatility surface is necessary to price binary options accurately.