Calibration of Watershed Models

Calibration of Watershed Models
Author: Qingyun Duan
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Total Pages: 356
Release: 2003-01-10
Genre: Science
ISBN: 087590355X

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Published by the American Geophysical Union as part of the Water Science and Application Series, Volume 6. During the past four decades, computer-based mathematical models of watershed hydrology have been widely used for a variety of applications including hydrologic forecasting, hydrologic design, and water resources management. These models are based on general mathematical descriptions of the watershed processes that transform natural forcing (e.g., rainfall over the landscape) into response (e.g., runoff in the rivers). The user of a watershed hydrology model must specify the model parameters before the model is able to properly simulate the watershed behavior.

Advances In Data-based Approaches For Hydrologic Modeling And Forecasting

Advances In Data-based Approaches For Hydrologic Modeling And Forecasting
Author: Bellie Sivakumar
Publisher: World Scientific
Total Pages: 542
Release: 2010-08-10
Genre: Science
ISBN: 9814464759

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This book comprehensively accounts the advances in data-based approaches for hydrologic modeling and forecasting. Eight major and most popular approaches are selected, with a chapter for each — stochastic methods, parameter estimation techniques, scaling and fractal methods, remote sensing, artificial neural networks, evolutionary computing, wavelets, and nonlinear dynamics and chaos methods. These approaches are chosen to address a wide range of hydrologic system characteristics, processes, and the associated problems. Each of these eight approaches includes a comprehensive review of the fundamental concepts, their applications in hydrology, and a discussion on potential future directions.

Improved Data Uncertainty Handling in Hydrologic Modeling and Forecasting Applications

Improved Data Uncertainty Handling in Hydrologic Modeling and Forecasting Applications
Author: Hongli Liu
Publisher:
Total Pages: 205
Release: 2019
Genre: Flood forecasting
ISBN:

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In hydrologic modeling and forecasting applications, many steps are needed. The steps that are relevant to this thesis include watershed discretization, model calibration, and data assimilation. Watershed discretization separates a watershed into homogeneous computational units for depiction in a distributed hydrologic model. Objective identification of an appropriate discretization scheme remains challenging in part because of the lack of quantitative measures for assessing discretization quality, particularly prior to simulation. To solve this problem, this thesis contributes to develop an a priori discretization error metrics that can quantify the information loss induced by watershed discretization without running a hydrologic model. Informed by the error metrics, a two-step discretization decision-making approach is proposed with the advantages of reducing extreme errors and meeting user-specified discretization error targets. In hydrologic model calibration, several uncertainty-based calibration frameworks have been developed to explicitly consider different hydrologic modeling errors, such as parameter errors, forcing and response data errors, and model structure errors. This thesis focuses on climate and flow data errors. The common way of handling climate and flow data uncertainty in the existing calibration studies is perturbing observations with assumed statistical error models (e.g., addictive or multiplicative Gaussian error model) and incorporating them into parameter estimation by integration or repetition with multiple climate and (or) flow realizations. Given the existence of advanced climate and flow data uncertainty estimation methods, this thesis proposes replacing assumed statistical error models with physically-based (and more realistic and convenient) climate and flow ensembles. Accordingly, this thesis contributes developing a climate-flow ensemble based hydrologic model calibration framework. The framework is developed through two stages. The first stage only considers climate data uncertainty, leading to the climate ensemble based hydrologic calibration framework. The framework is parsimonious and can utilize any sources of historical climate ensembles. This thesis demonstrates the method of using the Gridded Ensemble Precipitation and Temperature Estimates dataset (Newman et al., 2015), referred to as N15 here, to derive precipitation and temperature ensembles. Assessment of this framework is conducted using 30 synthetic experiments and 20 real case studies. Results show that the framework generates more robust parameter estimates, reduces the inaccuracy of flow predictions caused by poor quality climate data, and improves the reliability of flow predictions. The second stage adds flow ensemble to the previously developed framework to explicitly consider flow data uncertainty and thus completes the climate-flow ensemble based calibration framework. The complete framework can work with likelihood-free calibration methods. This thesis demonstrates the method of using the hydraulics-based Bayesian rating curve uncertainty estimation method (BaRatin) (Le Coz et al., 2014) to generate flow ensemble. The continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) is taken as an objective function of the framework to compare the scalar model prediction with the measured flow ensemble. The framework performance is assessed based on 10 case studies. Results show that explicit consideration of flow data uncertainty maintains the accuracy and slightly improves the reliability of flow predictions, but compared with climate data uncertainty, flow data uncertainty plays a minor role of improving flow predictions. Regarding streamflow forecasting applications, this thesis contributes by improving the treatment of measured climate data uncertainty in the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) data assimilation. Similar as in model calibration, past studies usually use assumed statistical error models to perturb climate data in the EnKF. In data assimilation, the hyper-parameters of the statistical error models are often estimated by a trial-and-error tuning process, requiring significant analyst and computational time. To improve the efficiency of climate data uncertainty estimation in the EnKF, this thesis proposes the direct use of existing climate ensemble products to derive climate ensembles. The N15 dataset is used here to generate 100-member precipitation and temperature ensembles. The N15 generated climate ensembles are compared with the carefully tuned hyper-parameter generated climate ensembles in ensemble flow forecasting over 20 catchments. Results show that the N15 generated climate ensemble yields improved or similar flow forecasts than hyper-parameter generated climate ensembles. Therefore, it is possible to eliminate the time-consuming climate relevant hyper-parameter tuning from the EnKF by using existing ensemble climate products without losing flow forecast performance. After finishing the above research, a robust hydrologic modeling approach is built by using the thesis developed model calibration and data assimilation methods. The last contribution of this thesis is validating such a robust hydrologic model in ensemble flow forecasting via comparison with the use of traditional multiple hydrologic models. The robust single-model forecasting system considers parameter and climate data uncertainty and uses the N15 dataset to perturb historical climate in the EnKF. In contrast, the traditional multi-model forecasting system does not consider parameter and climate data uncertainty and uses assumed statistical error models to perturb historical climate in the EnKF. The comparison study is conducted on 20 catchments and reveal that the robust single hydrologic model generates improved ensemble high flow forecasts. Therefore, robust single model is definitely an advantage for ensemble high flow forecasts. The robust single hydrologic model relieves modelers from developing multiple (and often distributed) hydrologic models for each watershed in their operational ensemble prediction system.

A Calibration and Application of the Watershed Environmental Hydrology (WEHY) Model to the Calaveras Watershed

A Calibration and Application of the Watershed Environmental Hydrology (WEHY) Model to the Calaveras Watershed
Author: Emily Dean Snider
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2019
Genre:
ISBN: 9781392414989

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Physically-based watershed modeling is an important tool when making management decisions or trying to understand the underlying physics in a watershed. This will be especially true in the future as climate change begins to alter the atmospheric patterns and the land use and land cover conditions of the globe. Physically-based models are useful, as they are not calibrated based on historical data but rather based on a watershed's actual conditions and can therefore be used for flow discharge predictions based on climate projections or altered land use conditions. In this study, one atmospheric model, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model, and one atmospheric data set, the Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM), were used as input data to the Watershed Environmental Hydrology (WEHY) Model, a physically-based, fully-coupled atmospheric-land model, to predict discharge flows in the Calaveras watershed. After calibration and validation procedures it was concluded that snow accumulation based on the atmospheric data was an important determinant in flow discharge accuracy. WEHY results using WRF inputs underpredicted high-peak flows, while simulating low-peak flows well, suggesting an under representation of snow accumulation. WEHY results using PRISM inputs, on the other hand, estimated high-peak flows well and significantly overestimated low-peak flow discharges, suggesting an overestimation of snow accumulation. With both WRF and PRISM inputs, however, monthly validation was successfully achieved in WEHY, with a Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency Index (NSE) of greater than 0.8. The WEHY validation results at a daily interval, however, were not able to achieve a sufficient NSE and cannot be fully trusted when making predictions about future conditions. Monthly predictions may be sufficient when making management decisions, though. An estimated flow over the month during a drought year or a flood year can be helpful when planning reservoir operations or municipal water uses. These results are only applicable to the Calaveras watershed and further study will be required before determining if the results can be generalized. In addition to being useful in the near future, WEHY also has applications to long term flow simulations based on altered conditions.

Calibration and Validation of the SWAT Model for a Forested Watershed in Coastal South Carolina

Calibration and Validation of the SWAT Model for a Forested Watershed in Coastal South Carolina
Author:
Publisher:
Total Pages: 16
Release: 2008
Genre: Francis Marion National Forest (S.C.)
ISBN:

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Modeling the hydrology of low-gradient coastal watersheds on shallow, poorly drained soils is a challenging task due to the complexities in watershed delineation, runoff generation processes and pathways, flooding, and submergence caused by tropical storms. The objective of the study is to calibrate and validate a GIS-based spatially-distributed hydrologic model, SWAT, for a low-gradient, third-order Turkey Creek watershed (7,260 ha) within the Francis Marion National Forest in South Carolina Coastal Plain. The model calibration used GIS spatial data and two years (2005 wet and 2006 - dry) of stream flow and climate data, and was validated with one very dry year (2007) of data. Based on limited field measurements, results showed that the SWAT model with an improved one-parameter S2depletion coefficientS3 can predict the stream flow processes of this watershed reasonably well and better than the classical CN method. The model performed S2Good (E = 0.74; RSR = 0.51)S3 to S2Very Good (E = 0.98; RSR = 0.15)S3 for the monthly and only S2Satisfactory (E = 0.65; RSR = 0.60)S3 to S2Good (E = 0.67; RSR = 0.57)S3 for the daily calibration and validation periods, respectively. It was concluded that the refined SWAT model was still unable to accurately capture the flow dynamics of this forest ecosystem with high water table shallow soils for very wet saturated and very dry antecedent conditions which warrants further investigations on these forest systems. Finally, the three-year average annual runoff coefficient of 17% and ET of 900 mm predicted by the model were found reasonable compared to other published data for the region.

Use of the Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN and Bacterial Source Tracking for Development of the Fecal Coliform Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) for Accotink Creek, Fairfax County, Virginia

Use of the Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN and Bacterial Source Tracking for Development of the Fecal Coliform Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) for Accotink Creek, Fairfax County, Virginia
Author: Douglas L. Moyer
Publisher:
Total Pages: 84
Release: 2003
Genre: Bacterial pollution of water
ISBN:

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