Assessing the economywide impacts of COVID-19 on Rwanda’s economy, agri-food system, and poverty: A social accounting matrix (SAM) multiplier approach

Assessing the economywide impacts of COVID-19 on Rwanda’s economy, agri-food system, and poverty: A social accounting matrix (SAM) multiplier approach
Author: Aragie, Emerta
Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Total Pages: 35
Release: 2021-05-17
Genre: Political Science
ISBN:

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Rwanda’s policy response to COVID-19 has been widely praised for its rapid, systematic, and comprehensive approach to containing the pandemic. Although the economic consequences are unavoidable, the country expects to return its economy to its high-growth trajectory as the pandemic subsides. We use economic modeling tools designed to estimate the short-term economywide impacts of the unanticipated, rapid-onset economic shocks of COVID-19 on Rwanda. - Results show that during the six-week lockdown that began in March, Rwanda’s GDP fell 39.1 percent (RWF 435 billion; USD 484 million) when compared to a no-COVID situation in the same period. - Results further show that Rwanda’s GDP in 2020 will be between 12 and 16 percent lower than a predicted no-COVID GDP, depending on the pace of the recovery. The losses in annual GDP are between RWF 1.0 and 1.5 trillion (USD 1.1–1.6 billion). - While GDP for the industrial and services sectors were estimated to have fallen during the lockdown period by 57 and 48 percent, respectively, exemptions of COVID-19 restrictions for the agricultural sector limited the decline in agricultural GDP to 7 percent compared to a noCOVID situation. - During the lockdown period, the national poverty rate is estimated to have increased by 10.9 percentage points as 1.3 million people, mostly in rural areas, fell into temporary poverty. Poverty rates are expected to stabilize by the end of 2020, increasing only by between 0.4 and 1.1 percentage points. While these figures may be encouraging, they mask the impacts on poor households of the sharp poverty spike during the lockdown and the inherent complexity of poverty dynamics post-lockdown. Looking forward, the speed and success of Rwanda’s recovery will depend critically on the expansion of Rwanda’s social protection programs, boosting enterprises of all sizes, support to the agri-food system, and restoration of international trade.

Synopsis: Assessing the economywide impacts of COVID-19 on Rwanda’s economy, agri food system, and poverty: A social accounting matrix (SAM) multiplier approach

Synopsis: Assessing the economywide impacts of COVID-19 on Rwanda’s economy, agri food system, and poverty: A social accounting matrix (SAM) multiplier approach
Author: Aragie, Emerta
Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Total Pages: 8
Release: 2021-06-01
Genre: Political Science
ISBN:

Download Synopsis: Assessing the economywide impacts of COVID-19 on Rwanda’s economy, agri food system, and poverty: A social accounting matrix (SAM) multiplier approach Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle

Rwanda’s policy response to COVID-19 has been widely praised for its rapid, systematic, and comprehensive approach to containing the pandemic. Although the economic consequences of the actions taken are unavoidable, the country expects to return its economy to its high-growth trajectory as the pandemic subsides. We used economic modeling tools designed to estimate the short-term economywide impacts of the unanticipated, rapid-onset economic shocks of COVID-19 on Rwanda. In this brief, we present a synopsis of the results of this analysis. • During the six-week lockdown that began in March 2020, we estimate Rwanda’s GDP fell 39.1 percent (RWF 435 billion; USD 484 million) when compared to a no-COVID situation. • Rwanda’s GDP in 2020 will be between 12 and 16 percent lower than a predicted no-COVID GDP, depending on the pace of economic recovery. The losses in annual GDP are between RWF 1.0 and 1.5 trillion (USD 1.1 to 1.6 billion). • While GDP for the industrial and services sectors were estimated to have fallen during the lockdown period by 57 and 48 percent, respectively, exemptions of COVID-19 restrictions for the agricultural sector limited the decline in agricultural GDP to 7 percent compared to a no-COVID situation. • During the lockdown period, the national poverty rate is estimated to have increased by 10.9 percentage points as 1.3 million people, mostly in rural areas, fell into temporary poverty. Poverty rates are expected to stabilize by the end of 2020, increasing only by between 0.4 and 1.1 percentage points over the pre-COVID situation. While these figures are encouraging, they mask the impacts on poor households of the sharp poverty spike during the lockdown and the inherent complexity of poverty dynamics post-lockdown. Looking forward, the speed and success of Rwanda’s economic recovery will depend critically on expanding Rwanda’s social protection programs, supporting enterprises of all sizes, providing broad assistance to the agri-food system, and restoring international trade.

Assessing the short-term impacts of COVID-19 on Ethiopia’s economy: External and domestic shocks and pace of recovery

Assessing the short-term impacts of COVID-19 on Ethiopia’s economy: External and domestic shocks and pace of recovery
Author: Aragie, Emerta
Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Total Pages: 24
Release: 2020-12-09
Genre: Political Science
ISBN:

Download Assessing the short-term impacts of COVID-19 on Ethiopia’s economy: External and domestic shocks and pace of recovery Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle

In this paper, we analyze the economic impacts of response measures adopted in Ethiopia to curtail the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. We carry out simulations using an economywide multiplier model based on a 2017 Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for the country that properly depicts interactions between economic agents. The pandemic’s impact on the global economy combined with disruptions it causes in Ethiopia represents a large, unprecedented shock to the country’s economy. In such situations, a SAM-based multiplier model provides an ideal tool for measuring the short-term direct and indirect impacts of a shock on an economic system since there is limited room for proper adjustment of economic decisions. We model the seven-week partial lockdown policy implemented in Ethiopia from mid-March to early May 2020. We also consider two possible economic recovery scenarios that may emerge as the COVID-19 control policies are relaxed during the latter part of 2020 in order to generate insights on the potential continuing impact of the virus at the end of 2020. Although the country took early swift measures, our assessment of the partial lockdown measures suggests that they were not as strict as those observed in other Africa countries. Accordingly, our estimates of the economic costs of COVID-19 on Ethiopia are significantly lower than those reported for other countries on the continent. We estimate that during the lockdown period Ethiopia’s GDP suffered a 14 percent loss (43.5 billion Birr or 1.9 billion USD) compared to a no-COVID case over the same period. Nearly two-thirds of the losses were in the services sector. Although no direct restrictions were imposed on the agriculture sector, which serves as the primary means of livelihood for most Ethiopians, the sector faced a 4.7 percent loss in output due to its linkages with the rest of the economy. Poor export performance due to a slowdown in global trade and restrictions on the transport sector also partly explain the decline in agricultural output. The broader agri-food system also was affected considerably because of its linkages with the rest of the economy. In terms of the welfare of Ethiopians, we estimate that the economic impacts during the lockdown caused 10.1 million additional people to fall below the poverty line. These findings have implications for better understanding the direct and indirect impacts of COVID-19 and for policy design during the recovery period to return Ethiopia’s economy to a normal growth trajectory and to protect the livelihoods of the most vulnerable in the process.

Assessing the impacts of COVID-19 on household incomes and poverty in Rwanda: A microsimulation approach

Assessing the impacts of COVID-19 on household incomes and poverty in Rwanda: A microsimulation approach
Author: Diao, Xinshen
Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Total Pages: 20
Release: 2021-06-29
Genre: Political Science
ISBN:

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In Rwanda, as in other countries, different types of households will experience the economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic differently. We use a microsimulation approach to highlight the importance of these differences and to draw attention to the diversified livelihood strategies of Rwandan households in order to fully understand COVID-19’s impacts on their income and poverty status. Our approach complements macro-level assessments of COVID-19’s economic impacts, focusing on the contribution of the income sources, asset holdings, and location (urban/rural) of households to understanding these differential effects.

The short-run economic costs of COVID-19 in developing countries in 2020: A synthesis of results from a multi-country modeling exercise

The short-run economic costs of COVID-19 in developing countries in 2020: A synthesis of results from a multi-country modeling exercise
Author: Pauw, Karl
Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Total Pages: 29
Release: 2021-06-04
Genre: Political Science
ISBN:

Download The short-run economic costs of COVID-19 in developing countries in 2020: A synthesis of results from a multi-country modeling exercise Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle

As COVID-19 spread across the globe in early 2020, governments had to make difficult policy choices to balance the socioeconomic costs of social distancing and lockdown measures, on the one hand, and the human costs of increased morbidity and mortality of an unchecked pandemic, on the other. The challenge was particularly daunting for developing countries with their often illequipped and underfunded health systems coupled with general skepticism about the effectiveness of economic restrictions to curb viral spread, especially in densely populated informal urban communities (The Economist 2020). Poorer developing country populations also tend to be less resilient to income shocks, while the social protection measures needed to mitigate against income losses are costly. With developing country governments already heavily indebted before the pandemic (Onyekwena and Ekeruche 2019), and with further anticipated losses in tax revenues due to COVID-related economic restrictions, their ability to finance palliative measures without sacrificing much-needed, longer-term public investments has remained a major concern.

Synopsis: Assessing the impacts of COVID-19 on household incomes and poverty in Rwanda: A microsimulation approach

Synopsis: Assessing the impacts of COVID-19 on household incomes and poverty in Rwanda: A microsimulation approach
Author: Diao, Xinshen
Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Total Pages: 8
Release: 2021-07-27
Genre: Political Science
ISBN:

Download Synopsis: Assessing the impacts of COVID-19 on household incomes and poverty in Rwanda: A microsimulation approach Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle

In Rwanda, as elsewhere, different types of households experienced the economic effects of COVID-19 differently. We use a microsimulation approach to show the importance of these differences to better understand COVID-19’s impacts on their income and poverty status. Main results: Nationally, during the lockdown period between March and May 2020, the simulation results estimate declines in household income by 33 percent on average. The urban population experienced the largest declines, averaging 40 percent during this period. Unlike patterns seen with other shocks, middle-income households experienced the sharpest declines in income during the lockdown of an estimated 33 to 35 percent. The share of individuals falling into poverty was highest among those in urban, middle income (Ubudehe 2) households (27 percent). However, the greatest absolute number of individuals in poverty remained concentrated in rural areas during the lockdown. Poor individuals in the lowest expenditure quintile remain in the most severe poverty, with average expenditures during the lockdown estimated at 54 percent below the poverty line. Under both the fast and slow post-COVID economic recovery scenarios used in the simulations, household incomes nearly return to pre-COVID levels for all household categories by the end of 2020. However, these results do not capture the potential longterm impacts of the substantial shocks of the pandemic to incomes, assets, and individual wellbeing. These modeling results suggest that targeting should be a central component of the design and implementation of social protection programs and economic recovery policies to support a diverse set of beneficiaries. These beneficiaries include rural farming households and poor households, as well as nonagricultural household, and households in the middle expenditure quintiles.

The gendered impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic in Kenya, Niger, Rwanda, and Uganda: Evidence from phone surveys

The gendered impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic in Kenya, Niger, Rwanda, and Uganda: Evidence from phone surveys
Author: Bryan, Elizabeth
Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Total Pages: 96
Release: 2023-09-22
Genre: Political Science
ISBN:

Download The gendered impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic in Kenya, Niger, Rwanda, and Uganda: Evidence from phone surveys Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle

The COVID-19 pandemic has had far-reaching impacts in every part of the world, including on vulnerable populations in rural areas of low- and middle-income countries. This report explores the ways in which men and women in rural areas of four countries in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA)—Kenya, Niger, Rwanda, and Uganda—experienced the COVID-19 pandemic and associated income losses, as well as their responses to the crisis. To identify and monitor the differential effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on women and men in rural households, IFPRI conducted phone surveys in selected regions of the four focal countries, with financial and technical support from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). The surveys traced gender differences in responses to the pandemic and associated restrictions, such as choice of coping strategies, access to public assistance, and changes in the care burden for men and women.

Rwanda’s agrifood system: Structure and drivers of transformation

Rwanda’s agrifood system: Structure and drivers of transformation
Author: Diao, Xinshen
Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Total Pages: 35
Release: 2023-01-25
Genre: Political Science
ISBN:

Download Rwanda’s agrifood system: Structure and drivers of transformation Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle

This paper assesses the structure of Rwanda’s current and evolving agrifood system and its contribu-tion to national development. The paper reiterates the point that Rwanda’s agrifood system stretches well beyond primary agriculture and creates jobs and income opportunities throughout the economy. While off-farm components of Rwanda’s agrifood system have generally grown more rapidly than pri-mary agriculture in recent years, growth varies across value chains of the agrifood system in the stud-ied period. The growth diagnostic in this paper reveals that it is domestic markets that have driven the recent growth in Rwanda’s AFS other than exports. The paper’s forward-looking analysis assesses potentially differential impacts of value-chain develop-ment efforts on broad development outcomes. The analysis measures the synergies and trade-offs of value-chain development in the context of an inclusive agricultural transformation. Such analysis is conducted using the Rwanda Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model – an adaption of IFPRI’s Rural Investment and Policy Analysis (RIAPA) model to the Rwandan context. The modeling results indicate that value chains differ considerably in their effectiveness in achieving development goals and there are significant trade-offs among different development goals from pro-moting a specific value chain. The value chains that make a larger contribution to growth or job crea-tion are not necessarily effective in reducing poverty or improving dietary quality – for example, value chains for coffee and tea – while value chains that play an important role in improving dietary quality may contribute less to job creation – such as vegetables or fruits. While there is no single value chain that can achieve all development goals effectively, it is possible to select a diversified set of value chains that complement each other in achieving different development goals. This latter strategy is a more realistic approach to growth and development.

Rwanda: Impacts of the Ukraine and global crises on poverty and food security

Rwanda: Impacts of the Ukraine and global crises on poverty and food security
Author: Diao, Xinshen
Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Total Pages: 11
Release: 2022-07-02
Genre: Political Science
ISBN:

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Global food, fuel, and fertilizer prices have risen rapidly in recent months, driven in large part by the fallout from the ongoing war in Ukraine and the sanctions imposed on Russia. Other factors have contributed to the crisis, such as export bans and continued supply chain disruptions from the COVID-19 pandemic. For example, between June 2021 and April 2022, the global prices of palm oil and wheat increased by 56 and 100 percent in real terms, respectively. At the same time, the price of fertilizer doubled, while crude oil and natural gas prices have also risen substantially. However, wide variation also exists across commodities, with real maize prices increasing by only 11 percent, and rice prices declining by 13 percent (Figure 1).

Covid-19 and lockdown policies: A structural simulation model of a bottom-up recession in four countries

Covid-19 and lockdown policies: A structural simulation model of a bottom-up recession in four countries
Author: Robinson, Sherman
Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Total Pages: 56
Release: 2021-04-19
Genre: Political Science
ISBN:

Download Covid-19 and lockdown policies: A structural simulation model of a bottom-up recession in four countries Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle

This paper considers different approaches to modelling the economic impact of the Covid-19 pandemic/lockdown shocks. We review different modelling strategies and argue that, given the nature of the bottom-up recession caused by the pandemic/lockdowns, simulation models of the shocks should be based on a social accounting matrix (SAM) that includes both disaggregated sectoral data and the national accounts in a unified framework. SAM-based models have been widely used to analyze the impact of natural disasters, which are comparable to pandemic/lockdown shocks. The pandemic/lockdown shocks occurred rapidly, in weeks or months, not gradually over a year or more. In such a short period, adjustments through smooth changes in wages, prices and production methods are not plausible. Rather, initial adjustments occur through changes in quantities, altering demand and supply of commodities and employment in affected sectors. In this environment, we use a linear SAM-multiplier model that specifies a fixed-coefficient production technology, linear demand system, fixed savings rates, and fixed prices. There are three different kinds of sectoral shocks that are included in the model: (1) changes in demand due to household lockdown, (2) changes in supply due to industry lockdown, and (3) changes in demand due to induced macro shocks. At the detailed industry level, data are provided for all three shocks and the model imposes the largest of the three. We applied the model on a monthly time step for the period March to June 2020 for four countries: US, UK, Mexico, and South Africa. The models closely replicate observed macro results (GDP and employment) for the period. The results provide detailed structural information on the evolution of the different economies month-by-month and provide a framework for forward-looking scenario analysis. We also use the SAM-multiplier model to estimate the macro stimulus impacts of policies to support affected households. The model focuses attention on the structural features of the economy that define the multiplier process (who gets the additional income and what do they do with it) and provides a more nuanced analysis of the stimulus impact of income support programs than can be done with aggregated macro models.