Analysis of the Likelihood Function for Markov-Switching VAR(CH) Models

Analysis of the Likelihood Function for Markov-Switching VAR(CH) Models
Author: Maddalena Cavicchioli
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2014
Genre:
ISBN:

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In this work, we give simple matrix formulae for maximum likelihood estimates of parameters in a broad class of vector autoregressions subject to Markovian changes in regime. This allows us to determine explicitly the asymptotic variance-covariance matrix of the estimators, giving a concrete possibility for the use of the classical testing procedures. In the context of multivariate autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic models with changes in regime, we provide formulae for the analytic derivatives of the log likelihood. Then we prove the consistency of some maximum likelihood estimators and give some formulae for the asymptotic variance of the different estimators.

Analysis of Pricing Financial Derivatives Under Regime-switching Economy

Analysis of Pricing Financial Derivatives Under Regime-switching Economy
Author: Farzad Alavi Fard
Publisher:
Total Pages: 113
Release: 2014
Genre: Derivative securities
ISBN:

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In this thesis we argue that regime-switching models can significantly improve the pricing models for financial derivatives. We use three examples to analyse the valuation of derivative contracts under the Markovian regime-switching framework, namely, 1) a European call option, 2) a Ruin Contingent Life Annuity, and 3) a participating product. Such a regime-switching framework unveils a potent class of models. Throughout the modulation of the model parameters by a Markov chain, they can simultaneously explain the asymmetic leptokurtic features of the returns' distribution, as well as the volatility smile and the volatility clustering effect. The intuition behind regime-switching models is to capture the appealing idea that the macro-economy is subjected to regular, yet unpredictable in time, states, which in turn affects the prices of financial securities.

Asymptotic Analyses for Complex Evolutionary Systems with Markov and Semi-Markov Switching Using Approximation Schemes

Asymptotic Analyses for Complex Evolutionary Systems with Markov and Semi-Markov Switching Using Approximation Schemes
Author: Yaroslav Chabanyuk
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Total Pages: 240
Release: 2020-12-03
Genre: Mathematics
ISBN: 1786305569

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This book analyzes stochastic evolutionary models under the impulse of diffusion, as well as Markov and semi-Markov switches. Models are investigated under the conditions of classical and non-classical (Levy and Poisson) approximations in addition to jumping stochastic approximations and continuous optimization procedures. Among other asymptotic properties, particular attention is given to weak convergence, dissipativity, stability and the control of processes and their generators. Weak convergence of stochastic processes is usually proved by verifying two conditions: the tightness of the distributions of the converging processes, which ensures the existence of a converging subsequence, and the uniqueness of the weak limit. Achieving the limit can be done on the semigroups that correspond to the converging process as well as on appropriate generators. While this provides the convergence of generators, a natural question arises concerning the uniqueness of a limit semigroup.

Mathematical Models of Financial Derivatives

Mathematical Models of Financial Derivatives
Author: Yue-Kuen Kwok
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 541
Release: 2008-07-10
Genre: Mathematics
ISBN: 3540686886

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This second edition, now featuring new material, focuses on the valuation principles that are common to most derivative securities. A wide range of financial derivatives commonly traded in the equity and fixed income markets are analysed, emphasising aspects of pricing, hedging and practical usage. This second edition features additional emphasis on the discussion of Ito calculus and Girsanovs Theorem, and the risk-neutral measure and equivalent martingale pricing approach. A new chapter on credit risk models and pricing of credit derivatives has been added. Up-to-date research results are provided by many useful exercises.

Analysis of Markov Chain Approximation for Diffusion Models with Non-Smooth Coefficients

Analysis of Markov Chain Approximation for Diffusion Models with Non-Smooth Coefficients
Author: Gongqiu Zhang
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2019
Genre:
ISBN:

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Diffusion models with non-smooth coefficients often appear in financial applications, with examples including but not limited to threshold models for financial variables, the pricing of occupation time derivatives and shadow rate models for interest rate dynamics. To calculate the expected value of a discounted payoff under general state-dependent discounting and monitoring of barrier crossing, continuous time Markov chain (CTMC) approximation can be applied. In a recent work, Zhang and Li (2018, Operations Research, forthcoming) established sharp convergence rates of CTMC approximation for diffusion models with smooth coefficients but non-smooth payoff functions, and proposed grid design principles to ensure nice convergence behaviors. However, their theoretical analysis fails to obtain sharp convergence rates when model coefficients lack smoothness. Moreover, it is unclear how to design the grid of CTMC to remedy the inferior convergence behaviors resulting from non-smooth model coefficients. In this paper, we introduce new ways for the theoretical analysis of CTMC approximation for general diffusion models with non-smooth coefficients. We prove that convergence of option price is only first order in general. However, strikingly, if all the discontinuous points of the model coefficients and the payoff function are in the midway between two grid points, second order convergence in the maximum norm is restored and in this case, delta and gamma have second order convergence at almost all grid points except those next to the discontinuous points. Numerical experiments are conducted that confirm the validity of our theoretical results. We also compare the CTMC approximation approach with properly designed grids to a classical numerical PDE scheme for diffusion models with non-smooth coefficients, where the finite difference method is applied separately in each region with smooth coefficients and continuous pasting of the value function is enforced at the discontinuities. We show that our approach is superior to the latter in terms of both the convergence rate and the simplicity of implementation.

Derivatives Pricing and Model Calibration Using Continuous Time Markov Chain Approximation Model

Derivatives Pricing and Model Calibration Using Continuous Time Markov Chain Approximation Model
Author: Chia Lo
Publisher:
Total Pages: 43
Release: 2014
Genre:
ISBN:

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We propose a non-equidistant Q rate matrix setting formula such that a well-defined continuous time Markov chain can lead to excellent approximations to jump-diffusions with affine or non-affine functional specifications. This approach also accommodates state-dependent jump intensity and jump distribution, a fexibility that is very hard to achieve with traditional numerical methods. Our approach not only satisfies Kushner (1990) local consistency conditions but also resolves the approximation errors induced by Piccioni (1987) scheme. European stock option pricing examples based on jump-diffusions illustrate the ease of implementation of our model. The proposed algorithm for pricing American options highlights the speed and accuracy. Finally the empirical analysis using daily VIX data shows that the maximum likelihood estimates of the underlying jump-diffusions can be efficiently computed by the model proposed in this article.

Markov-Switching Model Selection Using Kullback-Leibler Divergence

Markov-Switching Model Selection Using Kullback-Leibler Divergence
Author: Aaron Smith
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2009
Genre:
ISBN:

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In Markov-switching regression models, we use Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence between the true and candidate models to select the number of states and variables simultaneously. In applying Akaike information criterion (AIC), which is an estimate of KL divergence, we find that AIC retains too many states and variables in the model. Hence, we derive a new information criterion, Markov switching criterion (MSC), which yields a marked improvement in state determination and variable selection because it imposes an appropriate penalty to mitigate the over-retention of states in the Markov chain. MSC performs well in Monte Carlo studies with single and multiple states, small and large samples, and low and high noise. Furthermore, it not only applies to Markov-switching regression models, but also performs well in Markov-switching autoregression models. Finally, the usefulness of MSC is illustrated via applications to the U.S. business cycle and the effectiveness of media advertising.