An Extended Quarterly Projection Model For The Central Bank Of Jordan
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| Author | : Adel Al-Sharkas |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 84 |
| Release | : 2023-08-25 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : |
Download An Extended Quarterly Projection Model for the Central Bank of Jordan Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle
The Central Bank of Jordan (CBJ) has developed a Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS) to serve as a reliable analytical framework for macroeconomic analysis, forecasting and decision-making under a pegged exchange rate regime. At the heart of the FPAS is the CBJ’s extended Jordan Analysis Model (JAM2.0). The model captures the monetary transmission mechanism and provides a consistent monetary policy framework that uses the exchange rate as an effective nominal anchor. This paper outlines the structure and properties of JAM2.0 and emphasizes the enhanced interplay and tradeoffs among monetary, fiscal, and foreign exchange management policies. Simulation and forecasting exercises demonstrate JAM2.0’s ability to match key stylized facts of the Jordanian economy, produce accurate forecasts of important macroeconomic variables, and explain the critical relationships among policies.
| Author | : International Monetary |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 38 |
| Release | : 2022-04-07 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : |
Download Jordan: Technical Assistance Report-Forecasting Framework for Currency in Circulation Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle
The currency in circulation forecasting model presently used by the Central Bank of Jordan is aligned with international practices and provides a solid basis for liquidity management. The central bank uses an Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model with many indicator variables to model binary seasonality and to capture special events. The ARIMA model is fitted on daily currency in circulation data using a standard maximum likelihood estimator. This ARIMA approach is aligned with the models traditionally used by central banks in emerging and middle-income countries.
| Author | : Mr.Ondrej Kamenik |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 56 |
| Release | : 2008-12-01 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1451871368 |
Download A Small Quarterly Projection Model of the US Economy Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle
This is the first of a series of papers that are being written as part of a project to estimate a small quarterly Global Projection Model (GPM). The GPM project is designed to improve the toolkit for studying both own-country and cross-country linkages. In this paper, we estimate a small quarterly projection model of the U.S. economy. The model is estimated with Bayesian techniques, which provide a very efficient way of imposing restrictions to produce both plausible dynamics and sensible forecasting properties. After developing a benchmark model without financial-real linkages, we introduce such linkages into the model and compare the results with and without linkages.
| Author | : International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept. |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 57 |
| Release | : 2024-07 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
Download Jordan Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle
Jordan’s economy continues to show resilience despite a challenging external environment. The economy continues to grow, albeit at a somewhat slower pace, inflation is low, and reserve buffers are strong. Growth is projected to pick up pace in 2025, contingent upon the Israel-Gaza conflict ending and its impact fading. Uncertainty is high, however, and structural challenges remain, with continued high unemployment.
| Author | : Samar Maziad |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 38 |
| Release | : 2009-09 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : |
Download Monetary Policy and the Central Bank in Jordan Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle
The Central Bank of Jordan (CBJ) and its operational independence changed over time in line with the evolution of the monetary policy framework and as a result of the currency crisis in the late 1980s. The paper examines the developments of the CBJ, its independence in conducting monetary policy and the various instruments at its disposal, with special focus on the certificates of deposit (CDs) market, the main monetary policy instrument, and the treasury bill market. The paper also examines the issue of the autonomy of monetary policy in Jordan given the influence of world interest rates. Although, Jordan operates an exchange rate peg, which has been fixed to the USD since 1995, there is some room for flexibility in operating monetary policy in the short-run, where the CBJ has some autonomy in determining the spread between domestic and US interest rates. VAR and VECM results suggest that the response of the policy rate in Jordan to innovations in the US Federal Fund's rate is less than one-for-one. In the short-run, the CBJ appears to conduct monetary policy in response to domestic inflation and a measure of the domestic output gap.
| Author | : International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept. |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 69 |
| Release | : 2023-06-30 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : |
Download Jordan Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle
Despite a challenging global environment, Jordan’s economy continues to grow, albeit at a moderate pace, and the outlook is generally positive. Inflation is slowing in response to the tightening of monetary policy and lower commodity prices, and is expected to end 2023 at 2.7 percent, from its peak of 5.4 percent in September 2022. The current account deficit is projected to narrow this year, although less than projected earlier, and international reserves to remain at a comfortable level. Notwithstanding these positive trends, job creation remains a challenge, and unemployment remains very high.
| Author | : Francisco G. Dakila Jr. |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 116 |
| Release | : 2024-07-12 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
Download A Monetary and Financial Policy Analysis and Forecasting Model for the Philippines (PAMPh2.0) Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle
The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) has enhanced its macroeconomic modeling through the Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS), transitioning from a multi-equation econometric model to a modernized system centered on the Quarterly Projection Model (QPM). In its new version, the Policy Analysis Model for the Philippines (PAMPh2.0) integrates forward-looking projections, endogenous monetary policy, fiscal and macroprudential considerations, labor dynamics, and addresses complex shocks and policy trade-offs, facilitating effective policy mix determination and supporting real-time policy evaluation. The BSP’s modernization efforts also include refining forecast calendars and strengthening communication channels to accommodate the operationalization of PAMPh2.0. Detailed validation methods ensure empirical consistency. Finally, future refinements will align the model with evolving empirical findings and theoretical insights, ensuring its continued relevance.
| Author | : Raquel Fernández |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 50 |
| Release | : 2021-03-04 |
| Genre | : Social Science |
| ISBN | : 1513571168 |
Download Gender Equality and Inclusive Growth Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle
This paper considers various dimensions and sources of gender inequality and presents policies and best practices to address these. With women accounting for fifty percent of the global population, inclusive growth can only be achieved if it promotes gender equality. Despite recent progress, gender gaps remain across all stages of life, including before birth, and negatively impact health, education, and economic outcomes for women. The roadmap to gender equality has to rely on legal framework reforms, policies to promote equal access, and efforts to tackle entrenched social norms. These need to be set in the context of arising new trends such as digitalization, climate change, as well as shocks such as pandemics.
| Author | : International Monetary Fund |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 74 |
| Release | : 2015-10-23 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1498344062 |
Download Evolving Monetary Policy Frameworks in Low-Income and Other Developing Countries Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle
Over the past two decades, many low- and lower-middle income countries (LLMICs) have improved control over fiscal policy, liberalized and deepened financial markets, and stabilized inflation at moderate levels. Monetary policy frameworks that have helped achieve these ends are being challenged by continued financial development and increased exposure to global capital markets. Many policymakers aspire to move beyond the basics of stability to implement monetary policy frameworks that better anchor inflation and promote macroeconomic stability and growth. Many of these LLMICs are thus considering and implementing improvements to their monetary policy frameworks. The recent successes of some LLMICs and the experiences of emerging and advanced economies, both early in their policy modernization process and following the global financial crisis, are valuable in identifying desirable features of such frameworks. This paper draws on those lessons to provide guidance on key elements of effective monetary policy frameworks for LLMICs.
| Author | : International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept. |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 109 |
| Release | : 2014-06-09 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1498395139 |
Download Jordan Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle
This paper focuses on Jordan’s 2014 Article IV Consultation, Third and Fourth Reviews Under the Stand-By Arrangement (SBA), Request for Waivers of Nonobservance of Performance Criterion (PC) and Applicability of PCs. The program is broadly on track and, looking forward, will focus on deep tax reform. All end-2013 targets were met. The central government is expected to meet its end-March 2014 target, but the combined public sector deficit will be missed because of temporary shortfalls in gas delivery from Egypt. International reserves have continued to over-perform through March. The IMF staff supports the completion of the third and fourth reviews.
