Advances in Decision Making Under Risk and Uncertainty

Advances in Decision Making Under Risk and Uncertainty
Author: Mohammed Abdellaoui
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 245
Release: 2008-08-29
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 3540684360

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Whether we like it or not we all feel that the world is uncertain. From choosing a new technology to selecting a job, we rarely know in advance what outcome will result from our decisions. Unfortunately, the standard theory of choice under uncertainty developed in the early forties and fifties turns out to be too rigid to take many tricky issues of choice under uncertainty into account. The good news is that we have now moved away from the early descriptively inadequate modeling of behavior. This book brings the reader into contact with the accomplished progress in individual decision making through the most recent contributions to uncertainty modeling and behavioral decision making. It also introduces the reader into the many subtle issues to be resolved for rational choice under uncertainty.

Decision Making Under Uncertainty

Decision Making Under Uncertainty
Author: Mykel J. Kochenderfer
Publisher: MIT Press
Total Pages: 350
Release: 2015-07-24
Genre: Computers
ISBN: 0262331713

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An introduction to decision making under uncertainty from a computational perspective, covering both theory and applications ranging from speech recognition to airborne collision avoidance. Many important problems involve decision making under uncertainty—that is, choosing actions based on often imperfect observations, with unknown outcomes. Designers of automated decision support systems must take into account the various sources of uncertainty while balancing the multiple objectives of the system. This book provides an introduction to the challenges of decision making under uncertainty from a computational perspective. It presents both the theory behind decision making models and algorithms and a collection of example applications that range from speech recognition to aircraft collision avoidance. Focusing on two methods for designing decision agents, planning and reinforcement learning, the book covers probabilistic models, introducing Bayesian networks as a graphical model that captures probabilistic relationships between variables; utility theory as a framework for understanding optimal decision making under uncertainty; Markov decision processes as a method for modeling sequential problems; model uncertainty; state uncertainty; and cooperative decision making involving multiple interacting agents. A series of applications shows how the theoretical concepts can be applied to systems for attribute-based person search, speech applications, collision avoidance, and unmanned aircraft persistent surveillance. Decision Making Under Uncertainty unifies research from different communities using consistent notation, and is accessible to students and researchers across engineering disciplines who have some prior exposure to probability theory and calculus. It can be used as a text for advanced undergraduate and graduate students in fields including computer science, aerospace and electrical engineering, and management science. It will also be a valuable professional reference for researchers in a variety of disciplines.

Advanced Models and Tools for Effective Decision Making Under Uncertainty and Risk Contexts

Advanced Models and Tools for Effective Decision Making Under Uncertainty and Risk Contexts
Author: González-Prida, Vicente
Publisher: IGI Global
Total Pages: 423
Release: 2020-09-04
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1799832481

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Business industries depend on advanced models and tools that provide an optimal and objective decision-making process, ultimately guaranteeing improved competitiveness, reducing risk, and eliminating uncertainty. Thanks in part to the digital era of the modern world, reducing these conditions has become much more manageable. Advanced Models and Tools for Effective Decision Making Under Uncertainty and Risk Contexts provides research exploring the theoretical and practical aspects of effective decision making based not only on mathematical techniques, but also on those technological tools that are available nowadays in the Fourth Industrial Revolution. Featuring coverage on a broad range of topics such as industrial informatics, knowledge management, and production planning, this book is ideally designed for decision makers, researchers, engineers, academicians, and students.

Advances in Decision Making Under Risk and Uncertainty

Advances in Decision Making Under Risk and Uncertainty
Author: Mohammed Abdellaoui
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 246
Release: 2008-09-17
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 3540684379

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Brings the reader into contact with the accomplished progress in individual decision making through the contributions to uncertainty modeling and behavioral decision making. This work also introduces the reader to the subtle issues to be resolved for rational choice under uncertainty.

Theory of Decision Under Uncertainty

Theory of Decision Under Uncertainty
Author: Itzhak Gilboa
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Total Pages: 216
Release: 2009-03-16
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 052151732X

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This book describes the classical axiomatic theories of decision under uncertainty, as well as critiques thereof and alternative theories. It focuses on the meaning of probability, discussing some definitions and surveying their scope of applicability. The behavioral definition of subjective probability serves as a way to present the classical theories, culminating in Savage's theorem. The limitations of this result as a definition of probability lead to two directions - first, similar behavioral definitions of more general theories, such as non-additive probabilities and multiple priors, and second, cognitive derivations based on case-based techniques.

Advances in Decision Analysis

Advances in Decision Analysis
Author: Ward Edwards
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Total Pages: 640
Release: 2007-07-23
Genre: Psychology
ISBN: 9780521863681

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By framing issues, identifying risks, eliciting stakeholder preferences, and suggesting alternative approaches, decision analysts can offer workable solutions in domains such as the environment, health and medicine, engineering and operations research, and public policy. This book reviews and extends the material typically presented in introductory texts. Not a single book covers the broad scope of decision analysis at this advanced level. It will be a valuable resource for academics and students in decision analysis as well as decision analysts and managers

Affective Decision Making Under Uncertainty

Affective Decision Making Under Uncertainty
Author: Donald J. Brown
Publisher: Springer Nature
Total Pages: 88
Release: 2020-12-18
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 3030595129

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This book is an exploration of the ubiquity of ambiguity in decision-making under uncertainty. It presents various essays on behavioral economics and behavioral finance that draw on the theory of Black Swans (Taleb 2010), which argues for a distinction between unprecedented events in our past and unpredictable events in our future. The defining property of Black Swan random events is that they are unpredictable, i.e., highly unlikely random events. In this text, Mandelbrot’s (1972) operational definition of risky random unpredictable events is extended to Black Swan assets – assets for which the cumulative probability distribution or conditional probability distribution of random future asset returns is a power distribution. Ambiguous assets are assets for which the uncertainties of future returns are not risks. Consequently, there are two disjoint classes of Black Swan assets: Risky Black Swan assets and Ambiguous Black Swan assets, a new class of ambiguous assets with unpredictable random future outcomes. The text is divided into two parts, the first of which focuses on affective moods, introduces affective utility functions and discusses the ambiguity of Black Swans. The second part, which shifts the spotlight to affective equilibrium in asset markets, features chapters on affective portfolio analysis and Walrasian and Gorman Polar Form Equilibrium Inequalities. In order to gain the most from the book, readers should have completed the standard introductory graduate courses on microeconomics, behavioral finance, and convex optimization. The book is intended for advanced undergraduates, graduate students and post docs specializing in economic theory, experimental economics, finance, mathematics, computer science or data analysis.

Managing Risk and Uncertainty

Managing Risk and Uncertainty
Author: Richard Friberg
Publisher: MIT Press
Total Pages: 395
Release: 2015-11-13
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0262528193

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A comprehensive framework for assessing strategies for managing risk and uncertainty, integrating theory and practice and synthesizing insights from many fields. This book offers a framework for making decisions under risk and uncertainty. Synthesizing research from economics, finance, decision theory, management, and other fields, the book provides a set of tools and a way of thinking that determines the relative merits of different strategies. It takes as its premise that we make better decisions if we use the whole toolkit of economics and related fields to inform our decision making. The text explores the distinction between risk and uncertainty and covers standard models of decision making under risk as well as more recent work on decision making under uncertainty, with a particular focus on strategic interaction. It also examines the implications of incomplete markets for managing under uncertainty. It presents four core strategies: a benchmark strategy (proceeding as if risk and uncertainty were low), a financial hedging strategy (valuable if there is much risk), an operational hedging strategy (valuable for conditions of much uncertainty), and a flexible strategy (valuable if there is much risk and/or uncertainty). The book then examines various aspects of these strategies in greater depth, building on empirical work in several different fields. Topics include price-setting, real options and Monte Carlo techniques, organizational structure, and behavioral biases. Many chapters include exercises and appendixes with additional material. The book can be used in graduate or advanced undergraduate courses in risk management, as a guide for researchers, or as a reference for management practitioners.