A Specification Test for Speculative Bubbles

A Specification Test for Speculative Bubbles
Author: Kenneth D. West
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 1988
Genre:
ISBN:

Download A Specification Test for Speculative Bubbles Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle

The set of parameters needed to calculate the expected present discounted value of a stream of dividends can be estimated in two ways. One may test for speculative bubbles, or fads, by testing whether the two estimates are the same. When the test is applied to some annual U.S. stock market data, the data usually reject the null hypothesis of no bubbles. The test is of general interest since it may be applied to a wide class of linear rational expectations models.

Speculative Bubbles, Speculative Attacks, and Policy Switching

Speculative Bubbles, Speculative Attacks, and Policy Switching
Author: Robert P. Flood
Publisher: MIT Press
Total Pages: 528
Release: 1994
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9780262061698

Download Speculative Bubbles, Speculative Attacks, and Policy Switching Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle

The papers in this book are grouped into three sections: the first on price bubbles is primarily financial; the second on speculative attacks (on exchange rate regimes) is international in scope; and the third, on policy switching, is concerned with monetary policy.

Identifying Speculative Bubbles

Identifying Speculative Bubbles
Author: Bradley Jones
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 49
Release: 2014-11-19
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1484398270

Download Identifying Speculative Bubbles Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle

In the aftermath of the global financial crisis, the issue of how best to identify speculative asset bubbles (in real-time) remains in flux. This owes to the difficulty of disentangling irrational investor exuberance from the rational response to lower risk based on price behavior alone. In response, I introduce a two-pillar (price and quantity) approach for financial market surveillance. The intuition is straightforward: while asset pricing models comprise a valuable component of the surveillance toolkit, risk taking behavior, and financial vulnerabilities more generally, can also be reflected in subtler, non-price terms. The framework appears to capture stylized facts of asset booms and busts—some of the largest in history have been associated with below average risk premia (captured by the ‘pricing pillar’) and unusually elevated patterns of issuance, trading volumes, fund flows, and survey-based return projections (reflected in the ‘quantities pillar’). Based on a comparison to past boom-bust episodes, the approach is signaling mounting vulnerabilities in risky U.S. credit markets. Policy makers and regulators should be attune to any further deterioration in issuance quality, and where possible, take steps to ensure the post-crisis financial infrastructure is braced to accommodate a re-pricing in credit risk.

Banking Crises

Banking Crises
Author: Garett Jones
Publisher: Springer
Total Pages: 365
Release: 2016-01-26
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1137553790

Download Banking Crises Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle

Why do banks collapse? Are financial systems more fragile in recent decades? Can policies to fix the banking system do more harm than good? What's the history of banking crises? With dozens of brief, non-technical articles by economists and other researchers, Banking Crises offers answers from diverse scholarly viewpoints.

Asset Pricing Under Asymmetric Information

Asset Pricing Under Asymmetric Information
Author: Markus Konrad Brunnermeier
Publisher: Oxford University Press, USA
Total Pages: 264
Release: 2001
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9780198296980

Download Asset Pricing Under Asymmetric Information Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle

The role of information is central to the academic debate on finance. This book provides a detailed, current survey of theoretical research into the effect on stock prices of the distribution of information, comparing and contrasting major models. It examines theoretical models that explain bubbles, technical analysis, and herding behavior. It also provides rational explanations for stock market crashes. Analyzing the implications of asymmetries in information is crucial in this area. This book provides a useful survey for graduate students.