A Markov-Switching Multi-Fractal Inter-Trade Duration Model, with Application to U.S. Equities

A Markov-Switching Multi-Fractal Inter-Trade Duration Model, with Application to U.S. Equities
Author: Fei Chen
Publisher:
Total Pages: 61
Release: 2012
Genre: Economics
ISBN:

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We propose and illustrate a Markov-switching multi-fractal duration (MSMD) model for analysis of inter-trade durations in financial markets. We establish several of its key properties with emphasis on high persistence (indeed long memory). Empirical exploration suggests MSMD's superiority relative to leading competitors -- National Bureau of Economic Research web site.

Fractal Geometry and Dynamical Systems in Pure and Applied Mathematics II

Fractal Geometry and Dynamical Systems in Pure and Applied Mathematics II
Author: David Carfi
Publisher: American Mathematical Soc.
Total Pages: 384
Release: 2013-10-24
Genre: Mathematics
ISBN: 0821891480

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This volume contains the proceedings from three conferences: the PISRS 2011 International Conference on Analysis, Fractal Geometry, Dynamical Systems and Economics, held November 8-12, 2011 in Messina, Italy; the AMS Special Session on Fractal Geometry in Pure and Applied Mathematics, in memory of Benoît Mandelbrot, held January 4-7, 2012, in Boston, MA; and the AMS Special Session on Geometry and Analysis on Fractal Spaces, held March 3-4, 2012, in Honolulu, HI. Articles in this volume cover fractal geometry and various aspects of dynamical systems in applied mathematics and the applications to other sciences. Also included are articles discussing a variety of connections between these subjects and various areas of physics, engineering, computer science, technology, economics and finance, as well as of mathematics (including probability theory in relation with statistical physics and heat kernel estimates, geometric measure theory, partial differential equations in relation with condensed matter physics, global analysis on non-smooth spaces, the theory of billiards, harmonic analysis and spectral geometry). The companion volume (Contemporary Mathematics, Volume 600) focuses on the more mathematical aspects of fractal geometry and dynamical systems.

The Oxford Handbook of Computational Economics and Finance

The Oxford Handbook of Computational Economics and Finance
Author: Shu-Heng Chen
Publisher: Oxford University Press
Total Pages: 785
Release: 2018
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0199844372

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The Oxford Handbook of Computational Economics and Finance provides a survey of both the foundations of and recent advances in the frontiers of analysis and action. It is both historically and interdisciplinarily rich and also tightly connected to the rise of digital society. It begins with the conventional view of computational economics, including recent algorithmic development in computing rational expectations, volatility, and general equilibrium. It then moves from traditional computing in economics and finance to recent developments in natural computing, including applications of nature-inspired intelligence, genetic programming, swarm intelligence, and fuzzy logic. Also examined are recent developments of network and agent-based computing in economics. How these approaches are applied is examined in chapters on such subjects as trading robots and automated markets. The last part deals with the epistemology of simulation in its trinity form with the integration of simulation, computation, and dynamics. Distinctive is the focus on natural computationalism and the examination of the implications of intelligent machines for the future of computational economics and finance. Not merely individual robots, but whole integrated systems are extending their "immigration" to the world of Homo sapiens, or symbiogenesis.

Advances in Markov-Switching Models

Advances in Markov-Switching Models
Author: James D. Hamilton
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 267
Release: 2013-06-29
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 3642511821

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This book is a collection of state-of-the-art papers on the properties of business cycles and financial analysis. The individual contributions cover new advances in Markov-switching models with applications to business cycle research and finance. The introduction surveys the existing methods and new results of the last decade. Individual chapters study features of the U. S. and European business cycles with particular focus on the role of monetary policy, oil shocks and co movements among key variables. The short-run versus long-run consequences of an economic recession are also discussed. Another area that is featured is an extensive analysis of currency crises and the possibility of bubbles or fads in stock prices. A concluding chapter offers useful new results on testing for this kind of regime-switching behaviour. Overall, the book provides a state-of-the-art over view of new directions in methods and results for estimation and inference based on the use of Markov-switching time-series analysis. A special feature of the book is that it includes an illustration of a wide range of applications based on a common methodology. It is expected that the theme of the book will be of particular interest to the macroeconomics readers as well as econometrics professionals, scholars and graduate students. We wish to express our gratitude to the authors for their strong contributions and the reviewers for their assistance and careful attention to detail in their reports.

Essays in Dynamic Duration and Count Modelling

Essays in Dynamic Duration and Count Modelling
Author: Lorenzo Braccini
Publisher:
Total Pages: 320
Release: 2015
Genre:
ISBN:

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In this dissertation we study the dynamic and static probabilistic structure of the distribution of equity transaction times on financial markets. We propose dynamic, non-linear, non-Gaussian state space models to investigate both the structure of the associated inter-trade durations, and the properties of the number of transactions over a mesh of fixed length. The economic motivation of the study lies in the relationship between the properties of transaction times and those of the time-varying volatility of equity returns and of market liquidity measures such as bid-ask spreads. We use high-frequency data extracted from the Trade and Quotes database to recover transaction time-stamps recorded down to the second or millisecond time scale depending on the sample of analysis. We focus our attention to a randomly selected sub-sample of the S&P100 index traded on U.S. financial markets. Starting from the work of Chen et al. (2013), we propose a dynamic duration model that is able to capture the salient features of the empirical distribution of inter-trade durations for the most recent samples, namely, over-dispersion, long-memory, transaction clustering and simultaneous trading. We employ this model to study the structural change in the properties of the transaction process by assessing its ability of fitting the data and its forecasting accuracy over a long span of time (1993-2013). As an alternative tool for the analysis of the transaction times process, and motivated by the necessity of reducing the computational burdens induced by the appearance of data-sets of unprecedented size, we propose a dynamic, long-memory model for the number of transactions over a mesh of fixed length, based on the Markov Switching Multifractal model proposed by Calvet and Fisher (2008). We perform goodness-of-fit and forecasting accuracy comparisons against competing models and find that the proposed model provides a superior performance.