A Forecasting Performance Comparison of Dynamic Factor Models Based on Static and Dynamic Methods

A Forecasting Performance Comparison of Dynamic Factor Models Based on Static and Dynamic Methods
Author: Fabio Della Marra
Publisher:
Total Pages: 21
Release: 2017
Genre:
ISBN:

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We present a comparison of the forecasting performances of three Dynamic Factor Models on a large monthly data panel of macroeconomic and financial time series for the UE economy. The first model relies on static principal-component and was introduced by Stock and Watson. The second is based on generalized principal components and it was introduced by Forni, Hallin, Lippi and Reichlin. The last model has been recently proposed by Forni, Hallin, Lippi and Zaffaroni. The data panel is split into two parts: the calibration sample, from February 1986 to December 2000, is used to select the most performing specification for each class of models in a in-sample environment, and the proper sample, from January 2001 to November 2015, is used to compare the performances of the selected models in an out-of-sample environment. The metholodogical approach is analogous to, but also the size of the rolling window is empirically estimated in the calibration process to achieve more robustness. We find that, on the proper sample, the last model is the most performing for the Inflation. However, mixed evidencies appear over the proper sample for the Industrial Production.

The Oxford Handbook of Economic Forecasting

The Oxford Handbook of Economic Forecasting
Author: Michael P. Clements
Publisher: OUP USA
Total Pages: 732
Release: 2011-07-08
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0195398645

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Greater data availability has been coupled with developments in statistical theory and economic theory to allow more elaborate and complicated models to be entertained. These include factor models, DSGE models, restricted vector autoregressions, and non-linear models.

Dynamic Factor Models

Dynamic Factor Models
Author: Siem Jan Koopman
Publisher: Emerald Group Publishing
Total Pages: 685
Release: 2016-01-08
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1785603523

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This volume explores dynamic factor model specification, asymptotic and finite-sample behavior of parameter estimators, identification, frequentist and Bayesian estimation of the corresponding state space models, and applications.

Cladag 2017 Book of Short Papers

Cladag 2017 Book of Short Papers
Author: Francesca Greselin
Publisher: Universitas Studiorum
Total Pages: 698
Release: 2017-09-29
Genre: Mathematics
ISBN: 8899459711

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This book is the collection of the Abstract / Short Papers submitted by the authors of the International Conference of The CLAssification and Data Analysis Group (CLADAG) of the Italian Statistical Society (SIS), held in Milan (Italy) on September 13-15, 2017.

Dynamic Factor Models

Dynamic Factor Models
Author: Jörg Breitung
Publisher:
Total Pages: 40
Release: 2016
Genre:
ISBN:

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Factor models can cope with many variables without running into scarce degrees of freedom.

Forecast Accuracy of Small and Large Scale Dynamic Factor Models in Developing Economies

Forecast Accuracy of Small and Large Scale Dynamic Factor Models in Developing Economies
Author: German Lopez-Buenache
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2018
Genre:
ISBN:

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Developing economies usually present limitations in the availability of economic data. This constraint may affect the capacity of dynamic factor models to summarize large amounts of information into latent factors that reflect macroeconomic performance. This paper addresses this issue by comparing the accuracy of two kinds of dynamic factor models at GDP forecasting for six Latin American countries. Each model is based on a dataset of different dimensions: a large dataset composed of series belonging to several macroeconomic categories (large scale dynamic factor model) and a small dataset with a few prescreened variables considered as the most representative ones (small scale dynamic factor model). Short-term pseudo real time out-of-sample forecast of GDP growth is carried out with both models reproducing the real time situation of data accessibility derived from the publication lags of the series in each country. Results (i) confirm the important role of the inclusion of latest released data in the forecast accuracy of both models, (ii) show better precision of predictions based on factors with respect to autoregressive models and (iii) identify the most adequate model for each country according to availability of the observed data.

Artificial Life and Evolutionary Computation

Artificial Life and Evolutionary Computation
Author: Marcello Pelillo
Publisher: Springer
Total Pages: 326
Release: 2018-04-02
Genre: Computers
ISBN: 331978658X

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This book constitutes the revised selected papers of the 12th Italian Workshop on Advances in Artificial Life, Evolutionary Computation, WIVACE 2017, held in Venice, Italy, in September 2017.The 23 full papers presented were thoroughly reviewed and selected from 33 submissions. They cover the following topics: physical-chemical phenomena; biological systems; economy and society; complexity; optimization.

The Forcasting Performance of Dynamic Factor Models with Vintage Data

The Forcasting Performance of Dynamic Factor Models with Vintage Data
Author: Luca Di Bonaventura
Publisher:
Total Pages: 37
Release: 2018
Genre: Econometric models
ISBN:

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We present a comparative analysis of the forecasting performance of two dynamic factor models, the Stock and Watson (2002a, b) model and the Forni, Hallin, Lippi and Reichlin (2005) model, based on vintage data. Our dataset contains 107 monthly US "first release" macroeconomic and financial vintage time series, spanning the 1996:12 to 2017:6 period with monthly periodicity, extracted from the Bloomberg database. We compute real-time one-month-ahead forecasts with both models for four key macroeconomic variables: the month-on-month change in industrial production, the unemployment rate, the core consumer price index and the ISM Purchasing Managers' Index. First, we find that both the Stock and Watson and the Forni, Hallin, Lippi and Reichlin models outperform simple autoregressions for industrial production, unemployment rate and consumer prices, but that only the first model does so for the PMI. Second, we find that neither models always outperform the other. While Forni, Hallin, Lippi and Reichlin's beats Stock and Watson's in forecasting industrial production and consumer prices, the opposite happens for the unemployment rate and the PMI.

Macroeconomic Forecasting in the Era of Big Data

Macroeconomic Forecasting in the Era of Big Data
Author: Peter Fuleky
Publisher: Springer Nature
Total Pages: 716
Release: 2019-11-28
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 3030311503

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This book surveys big data tools used in macroeconomic forecasting and addresses related econometric issues, including how to capture dynamic relationships among variables; how to select parsimonious models; how to deal with model uncertainty, instability, non-stationarity, and mixed frequency data; and how to evaluate forecasts, among others. Each chapter is self-contained with references, and provides solid background information, while also reviewing the latest advances in the field. Accordingly, the book offers a valuable resource for researchers, professional forecasters, and students of quantitative economics.