When and Why Worry About Real Exchange Rate Appreciation? The Missing Link Between Dutch Disease and Growth

When and Why Worry About Real Exchange Rate Appreciation? The Missing Link Between Dutch Disease and Growth
Author: International Monetary Fund
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 34
Release: 2010-12-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1455210781

Download When and Why Worry About Real Exchange Rate Appreciation? The Missing Link Between Dutch Disease and Growth Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle

We review the literature on Dutch disease, and document that shocks that trigger foreign exchange inflows (such as natural resource booms, surges in foreign aid, remittances, or capital inflows) appreciate the real exchange rate, generate factor reallocation, and reduce manufacturing output and net exports. We also observe that real exchange rate misalignment due to overvaluation and higher volatility of the real exchange rate lower growth. Regarding the effect of undervaluation of the exchange rate on economic growth, the evidence is mixed and inconclusive. However, there is no evidence in the literature that Dutch disease reduces overall economic growth. Policy responses should aim at adequately managing the boom and the risks associated with it.

When and Why Worry About Real Exchange Rate Appreciation? The Missing Link Between Dutch Disease and Growth

When and Why Worry About Real Exchange Rate Appreciation? The Missing Link Between Dutch Disease and Growth
Author: Nicolás E. Magud
Publisher:
Total Pages: 33
Release: 2014
Genre:
ISBN:

Download When and Why Worry About Real Exchange Rate Appreciation? The Missing Link Between Dutch Disease and Growth Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle

We review the literature on Dutch disease, and document that shocks that trigger foreign exchange inflows (such as natural resource booms, surges in foreign aid, remittances, or capital inflows) appreciate the real exchange rate, generate factor reallocation, and reduce manufacturing output and net exports. We also observe that real exchange rate misalignment due to overvaluation and higher volatility of the real exchange rate lower growth. Regarding the effect of undervaluation of the exchange rate on economic growth, the evidence is mixed and inconclusive. However, there is no evidence in the literature that Dutch disease reduces overall economic growth. Policy responses should aim at adequately managing the boom and the risks associated with it.

What Determines Real Exchange Rates? The Long and Short of it

What Determines Real Exchange Rates? The Long and Short of it
Author: Ronald MacDonald
Publisher:
Total Pages: 53
Release: 2006
Genre:
ISBN:

Download What Determines Real Exchange Rates? The Long and Short of it Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle

This paper presents a reduced-form model of the real exchange rate. Using multilateral cointegration methods, the model is implemented for the real effective exchange rates of the dollar, the mark, and the yen, over the period 1974-1993. In contrast to much other research using real exchange rates, there is evidence of significant and sensible long-run relationships for a simplified version as well as for the full version of the model. The estimated long-run relationships are used to produce dynamic equations, which outperform a random walk and produce sensible dynamic patterns in the context of an impulse response analysis.

Evolution and Performance of Exchange Rate Regimes

Evolution and Performance of Exchange Rate Regimes
Author: Mr.Kenneth Rogoff
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 85
Release: 2003-12-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1451875843

Download Evolution and Performance of Exchange Rate Regimes Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle

Using recent advances in the classification of exchange rate regimes, this paper finds no support for the popular bipolar view that countries will tend over time to move to the polar extremes of free float or rigid peg. Rather, intermediate regimes have shown remarkable durability. The analysis suggests that as economies mature, the value of exchange rate flexibility rises. For countries at a relatively early stage of financial development and integration, fixed or relatively rigid regimes appear to offer some anti-inflation credibility gain without compromising growth objectives. As countries develop economically and institutionally, there appear to be considerable benefits to more flexible regimes. For developed countries that are not in a currency union, relatively flexible exchange rate regimes appear to offer higher growth without any cost in credibility.

Fear of Appreciation

Fear of Appreciation
Author: Eduardo Levy-Yeyati
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Total Pages: 39
Release: 2007
Genre: Central Bank
ISBN:

Download Fear of Appreciation Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle

Abstract: In recent years the term "fear of floating" has been used to describe exchange rate regimes that, while officially flexible, in practice intervene heavily to avoid sudden or large depreciations. However, the data reveals that in most cases (and increasingly so in the 2000s) intervention has been aimed at limiting appreciations rather than depreciations, often motivated by the neo-mercantilist view of a depreciated real exchange rate as protection for domestic industries. As a first step to address the broader question of whether this view delivers on its promise, the authors examine whether this "fear of appreciation" has a positive impact on growth performance in developing economies. The authors show that depreciated exchange rates appear to induce higher growth, but that the effect, rather than through import substitution or export booms as argued by the mercantilist view, works largely through the deepening of domestic savings and capital accumulation.

Dread of Depreciation

Dread of Depreciation
Author: Jayasri Dutta
Publisher:
Total Pages: 42
Release: 2002
Genre: Currency question
ISBN:

Download Dread of Depreciation Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle

The Predictability of Real Exchange Rate Changes in the Short and Long Run

The Predictability of Real Exchange Rate Changes in the Short and Long Run
Author: Robert Cumby
Publisher:
Total Pages: 60
Release: 1990
Genre: Foreign exchange
ISBN:

Download The Predictability of Real Exchange Rate Changes in the Short and Long Run Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle

Nominal exchange rates do not move to offset differences in inflation rates on a month to month, quarter to quarter, or even year to year basis, resulting in sizable real exchange rate changes. Are these changes predictable? We address this question in three ways. First, we describe a variety of tests of predictability and explain how the different tests are related. Next, we implement the tests for the U.S. dollar relative to four currencies and find statistically significant evidence that real exchange rate changes are predictable. Finally, we examine whether the predictability is of an economically interesting magnitude.

Exchange Rate Misalignment and Growth: A Myth?

Exchange Rate Misalignment and Growth: A Myth?
Author: Carlos Goncalves
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 15
Release: 2017-12-21
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 148433602X

Download Exchange Rate Misalignment and Growth: A Myth? Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle

The impact of real exchange rate movements on GDP growth is a hotly debated issue both in policy and academic circles. In this paper, we provide evidence suggesting that the association between exchange rate misalignment and growth for a broad panel of countries is very weak. Controlling for country fixed effects, time effects and initial GDP, a more depreciated currency is associated with higher growth if one does not exclude outliers. However, this positive association always vanishes after controling for the savings rate. Importantly, this applies for both a large panel of countries and for the emerging economies subsample.