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| Author | : Kwan-ho Sin |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 32 |
| Release | : 2003 |
| Genre | : Business cycles |
| ISBN | : |
| Author | : Sŏng-hyŏn Kim |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 21 |
| Release | : 2014 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
| Author | : Eric Monnet |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 55 |
| Release | : 2016-03-08 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1513564897 |
This paper assesses the strength of business cycle synchronization between 1950 and 2014 in a sample of 21 countries using a new quarterly dataset based on IMF archival data. Contrary to the common wisdom, we find that the globalization period is not associated with more output synchronization at the global level. The world business cycle was as strong during Bretton Woods (1950-1971) than during the Globalization period (1984-2006). Although globalization did not affect the average level of co-movement, trade and financial integration strongly affect the way countries co-move with the rest of the world. We find that financial integration de-synchronizes national outputs from the world cycle, although the magnitude of this effect depends crucially on the type of shocks hitting the world economy. This de-synchronizing effect has offset the synchronizing impact of other forces, such as increased trade integration.
| Author | : Marcus Kappler |
| Publisher | : Springer Science & Business Media |
| Total Pages | : 197 |
| Release | : 2012-07-30 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 3790828556 |
This book offers the reader a state-of-the-art overview on theory and empirics of business cycle synchronisation, structural reform and economic integration. Focusing on the ongoing integration process in the euro area and the EU, it analyses the integration process that has taken place since the 1980s and which is marked by the advent of the euro and the substantial enlargement that resulted from the accession of 12 new Member States in East and Southern Europe.
| Author | : Mr.Romain A Duval |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 46 |
| Release | : 2014-04-03 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1475523599 |
This paper reexamines the relationship between trade integration and business cycle synchronization (BCS) using new value-added trade data for 63 advanced and emerging economies during 1995–2012. In a panel framework, we identify a strong positive impact of trade intensity on BCS—conditional on various controls, global common shocks and country-pair heterogeneity—that is absent when gross trade data are used. That effect is bigger in crisis times, pointing to trade as an important crisis propagation mechanism. Bilateral intra-industry trade and trade specialization correlation also appear to increase co-movement, indicating that not only the intensity but also the type of trade matters. Finally, we show that dependence on Chinese final demand in value-added terms amplifies the international spillovers and synchronizing impact of growth shocks in China.
| Author | : Silvia Palasca |
| Publisher | : GRIN Verlag |
| Total Pages | : 15 |
| Release | : 2013-06-05 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 3656443033 |
Essay from the year 2013 in the subject Economics - Monetary theory and policy, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University of Iasi, language: English, abstract: The European Union sets the premises for the appearance of a new phenomenon in the global economic setting: the synchronization of the national business cycles. The aim of this article is to statistically prove the existence of a Euro are business cycle through the study of a classic indicator- the annual change of the GDP and also through the use of foreign trade indicators-the annual changes in exports in imports. Also, it is important, at the end, to choose the best of these indicators or a combination thereof to use as a benchmark for further studies. The empiric study is useful to classify the European countries in clusters according to synchronization, a first step in adopting common policies.
| Author | : Piotr Misztal |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 0 |
| Release | : 2013 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
The analysis of business cycle synchronization levels has become a key point in the discussion of the processes of international economic integration. Economists show a particular interest in analyzing the frequency of processes of business cycle convergence and divergence (decoupling) in the European Union, especially in the Euro Zone. One of the factors determining business cycle convergence in economies is the intensity and structure of international trade. The aim of this paper is to analyze the influence exerted by international trade over the synchronization of business cycles in Poland, the European Union and the Euro Zone from 1995 to 2011. The analytical methods employed here encompass a review of the literature on macroeconomics and international finance, as well as econometric models (such as the Vector Autoregression Model). The results of empirical research indicate that an increase in trade turnover does not necessarily lead to greater business cycle synchronization in the economies under analysis. In fact, the impact of an increase in countries' turnover on the synchronization of their business cycles depends predominantly on the structure of trade turnover and not solely on the intensity of trade.
| Author | : Robert J. Barro |
| Publisher | : Oxford University Press |
| Total Pages | : 304 |
| Release | : 2011-01-04 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 0199780773 |
Costs and Benefits of Economic Integration in Asia brings together authoritative essays that identify and examine various initiatives to promote economic integration in Asia.
| Author | : Hannes Boehm |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : |
| Release | : 2020 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
We analyze whether financial integration between countries leads to converging or diverging business cycles using a dynamic spatial model. Our model allows for contemporaneous spillovers of shocks to GDP growth between countries that are financially integrated and delivers a scalar measure of the spillover intensity at each point in time. For a financial network of ten European countries from 1996-2017, we find that the spillover effects are positive on average but much larger during periods of financial stress, pointing towards stronger business cycle synchronization. Dismantling GDP growth into value added growth of ten major industries, we observe that some sectors are strongly affected by positive spillovers (wholesale & retail trade, industrial production), others only to a weaker degree (agriculture, construction, finance), while more nationally influenced industries show no evidence for significant spillover effects (public administration, arts & entertainment, real estate).
| Author | : Michael D. Bordo |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 82 |
| Release | : 2003 |
| Genre | : Business cycles |
| ISBN | : |
"In this paper, we document evidence on the synchronization of business cycles across 16 countries over the past century and a quarter, demarcated into four exchange rate regimes. We find using three different methodologies that there is a secular trend towards increased synchronization for much of the twentieth century and that it occurs across diverse exchange rate regimes. This finding is in marked contrast to much of the recent literature, which has focused primarily on the evidence for the past 20 or 30 years and which has produced mixed results. We then considered a number of possible explanations for the observed pattern of increased synchronization. We first ascertained the role of shocks demarcated into country-specific (idiosyncratic) and global (common). Our key finding here is that global (common) shocks are the dominant influence across all regimes. The increasing importance of global shocks we posit reflects the forces of globalization, especially the integration of goods and services through international trade and the integration of financial markets. Our evidence shows a modest role for increasing bilateral trade in explaining synchronization, with stronger evidence for regional integration in Europe and North America but the evidence for the role of financial integration proxied by the removal of capital controls is inconclusive"--NBER website
