Three Essays on Monetary Union in West Africa

Three Essays on Monetary Union in West Africa
Author: Toyimi Médès Frida Adjalala
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2020
Genre:
ISBN:

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Chapter 1- How well-off or worse-off a country can be by joining a currency union in the presence of structural heterogeneity and idiosyncratic shocks? In light of the proposed creation of a currency union for the Economic Community of the West African States (ECOWAS), we develop a three-region DSGE model to explore the question. We divide the ECOWAS into three regions-Nigeria, the existing WAEMU (West-African Economic Monetary Union), and the rest. Considering two monetary regimes (monetary union and monetary independence), we assess the heterogeneity in the responses to country-specific productivity and terms-of-trade shocks in these two regimes, as well as the costs related to the loss of monetary independence. Our results indicate that shocks hitting a given region generate cross-border spillover effects, whose sign and magnitude depend not only on the nature of the disturbance but also on its origin and on the monetary policy regime considered. Moreover, the propagation of shocks across regions is magnified under the monetary union regime. Shocks hitting Nigeria's economy tend to have a more destabilizing effect on the other regions, especially when they are inside the union. Our results also suggest that the proposed monetary union for the ECOWAS region can potentially lead to welfare improvement for all the members, but the magnitude of the welfare gain is relatively small. Chapter 2- In this chapter, we develop a multi-region New-Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) of the West-African countries to provide a quantitative analysis of intergovernmental fiscal transfers in the context of the proposed creation of a monetary union. We assess the potential role of fiscal transfers in the stabilization of business cycle fluctuations in the projected monetary union in the presence of idiosyncratic shocks. Starting from a baseline scenario with no fiscal transfers among the regions, we analyze the dynamic and welfare impacts of full and partial fiscal equalization schemes with nominal tax revenue sharing within the union. We consider adverse productivity and term-of-trade shocks. Our simulation results suggest that the transfer mechanism is an efficient stabilizing tool. However, the stabilization property of the fiscal transfer system hinges upon the full or partial nature of the compensation system. Moreover, the ability of the transfer system to absorb the negative effects of idiosyncratic shocks depends not only on the type of shock but also on the size of the region directly affected. Chapter 3- We analyze in this chapter the macroeconomics effects of fiscal policy shocks in the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). To that end, we use a Global Vector Autoregression (GVAR) model, which allows us to assess both the within country and the cross borders spillover effects of the fiscal shocks. For the dynamic analysis, we consider negative country-specific public spending and revenue shocks affecting Nigeria as well as regional public spending and revenue shocks affecting two groups of countries in the area, namely the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) and the Rest of ECOWAS (RECOWAS). We provide evidence of considerable cross-country heterogeneity in fiscal spillovers; for instance, spillovers are high for fiscal shocks affecting Nigeria, while the cross-border spillover effects on Nigeria are weak for shocks affecting WAEMU and RECOWAS. Our results also suggest that fiscal policy is very relevant in stimulating real output in each of the ECOWAS countries but limited for the cross-country output stimulation.

The Monetary Geography of Africa

The Monetary Geography of Africa
Author: Paul R. Masson
Publisher: Rowman & Littlefield
Total Pages: 248
Release: 2004-11-30
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9780815797531

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Africa is working toward the goal of creating a common currency that would serve as a symbol of African unity. The advantages of a common currency include lower transaction costs, increased stability, and greater insulation of central banks from pressures to provide monetary financing. Disadvantages relate to asymmetries among countries, especially in their terms of trade and in the degree of fiscal discipline. More disciplined countries will not want to form a union with countries whose excessive spending puts upward pressure on the central bank's monetary expansion. In T he Monetary Geography of Africa, Paul Masson and Catherine Pattillo review the history of monetary arrangements on the continent and analyze the current situation and prospects for further integration. They apply lessons from both experience and theory that lead to a number of conclusions. To begin with, West Africa faces a major problem because Nigeria has both asymmetric terms of trade—it is a large oil exporter while its potential partners are oil importers—and most important, large fiscal imbalances. Secondly, a monetary union among all eastern or southern African countries seems infeasible at this stage, since a number of countries suffer from the effects of civil conflicts and drought and are far from achieving the macroeconomic stability of South Africa. Lastly, the plan by Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda to create a common currency seems to be generally compatible with other initiatives that could contribute to greater regional solidarity. However, economic gains would likely favor Kenya, which, unlike the other two countries, has substantial exports to its neighbors, and this may constrain the political will needed to proceed. A more promising strategy for monetary integration would be to build on existing monetary unions—the CFA franc zone in western and central Africa and the Common Monetary Area in southern Africa. Masson and Pattillo argue that the goal of a creating a s

Monetary Union in West Africa (ECOWAS)

Monetary Union in West Africa (ECOWAS)
Author: International Monetary Fund
Publisher:
Total Pages: 46
Release: 2000
Genre: Africa, West
ISBN:

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Monetary union, currency unions, fixed exchange rate, monetary stability.

Regional Integration in West Africa

Regional Integration in West Africa
Author: Eswar Prasad
Publisher: Brookings Institution Press
Total Pages: 203
Release: 2021-07-13
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0815738544

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" Assessing the potential benefits and risks of a currency union Leaders of the fifteen-member Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) have set a goal of achieving a monetary and currency union by late 2020. Although some progress has been made toward achieving this ambitious goal, major challenges remain if the region is to realize the necessary macroeconomic convergence and establish the required institutional framework in a relatively short period of time. The proposed union offers many potential benefits, especially for countries with historically high inflation rates and weak central banks. But, as implementation of the euro over the past two decades has shown, folding multiple currencies, representing disparate economies, into a common union comes with significant costs, along with operational challenges and transitional risks. All these potential negatives must be considered carefully by ECOWAS leaders seeking tomeet a self-imposed deadline. This book, by two leading experts on economics and Africa, makes a significant analytical contribution to the debates now under way about how ECOWAS could achieve and manage its currency union, andthe ramifications for the African continent. "

The Political Economy of Risk and Choice in Senegal

The Political Economy of Risk and Choice in Senegal
Author: John Waterbury
Publisher: Routledge
Total Pages: 200
Release: 2005-08-12
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1135779473

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First Published in 1987. Routledge is an imprint of Taylor & Francis, an informa company.

West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU)

West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU)
Author: International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 67
Release: 2016-04-04
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1484312635

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This paper presents stylized facts on the quantitative and qualitative infrastructure gap in the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU), estimates the efficiency of public investment, and recommends how to improve it. The WAEMU countries face an important common challenge of creating sufficient fiscal space to finance ambitious growth, development, and poverty-reduction programs in individual countries. This paper also provides comparative evidence of the situation of WAEMU in several areas of financial development relative to groups of benchmark countries. The state of inclusion in the WAEMU along three dimensions—poverty, income inequality, and gender inequality—is also examined in this paper.

The Eagle and the Springbok

The Eagle and the Springbok
Author: Adekeye Adebajo
Publisher: Taylor & Francis
Total Pages: 295
Release: 2023-06-23
Genre: Social Science
ISBN: 1000911632

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Nigeria and South Africa account for about a third of Africa’s economic might, and have led much of its conict management initiatives over the last three decades. Both account for at least 60 per cent of the economy of their respective sub-regions in West and Southern Africa. The success of political and economic integration in Africa thus rests heavily on the shoulders of these two regional powers who have both collaborated and competed with each other in a complex relationship that is Africa’s most indispensable. Nigeria remains among South Africa’s largest trading partners in Africa, while both countries have cooperated in building the institutions of the African Union (AU). Both countries have also had a tremendous cultural impact on the continent in terms of Nollywood movies and the expansion of South Africa’s corporate sector into Africa. This book assesses Nigeria/South Africa relations in the areas of politics, economics, and culture within the context of rivalries and hegemony. Biographical proles are also provided of important gures from both countries.

The CFA Franc Zone

The CFA Franc Zone
Author: Ms.Anne Marie Gulde
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 411
Release: 2008-04-02
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1589066758

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About one-third of countries covered by the IMF's African Department are members of the CFA franc zone. With most other countries moving away from fixed exchange rates, the issue of an adequate policy framework to ensure the sustainability of the CFA franc zone is clearly of interest to policymakers and academics. However, little academic research exists in the public domain. This book aims to fill this void by bringing together work undertaken in the context of intensified regional surveillance and highlighting the current challenges and the main policy requirements if the arrangements are to be carried forward. The book is based on empirical research by a broad group of IMF economists, with contributions from several outside experts.

The Handbook of Historical Economics

The Handbook of Historical Economics
Author: Alberto Bisin
Publisher: Academic Press
Total Pages: 1002
Release: 2021-04-21
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0128162686

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The Handbook of Historical Economics guides students and researchers through a quantitative economic history that uses fully up-to-date econometric methods. The book's coverage of statistics applied to the social sciences makes it invaluable to a broad readership. As new sources and applications of data in every economic field are enabling economists to ask and answer new fundamental questions, this book presents an up-to-date reference on the topics at hand. Provides an historical outline of the two cliometric revolutions, highlighting the similarities and the differences between the two Surveys the issues and principal results of the "second cliometric revolution" Explores innovations in formulating hypotheses and statistical testing, relating them to wider trends in data-driven, empirical economics