The Size and Destination of China's Portfolio Outflows

The Size and Destination of China's Portfolio Outflows
Author:
Publisher:
Total Pages: 36
Release: 2018
Genre: Electronic books
ISBN:

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'The size of China's financial system raises the possibility that the liberalization of its capital account could have a large effect on the global financial system. This paper provides a counterfactual scenario analysis that estimates what size and direction of China's overseas portfolio investments would have been in 2015 if China had had no restrictions on these outflows. In such a scenario, China's holdings of overseas portfolio assets would have been between US$1.5 trillion and US$3.2 trillion (13 to 29 per cent of Chinese GDP), or 5 to 12 times its actual holdings of US$281 billion. Our model estimates that these additional holdings would have been predominantly directed to the world's deepest financial markets, especially the United States, while emerging-market economies would have received little additional portfolio investment. These results suggest that the liberalization of Chinese portfolio outflows may not prove disruptive to the global financial system, although it could have important implications for China.'

The Chinese Approach to Capital Inflows

The Chinese Approach to Capital Inflows
Author: Eswar Prasad
Publisher:
Total Pages: 72
Release: 2005
Genre: Fiscal policy
ISBN:

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"In this paper, we adopt a cross-country perspective to examine the evolution of capital flows into China, both in terms of volumes and composition. China's inflows have generally been dominated by foreign direct investment (FDI), a pattern that appears to be favorable in light of the recent literature on the experiences of developing countries with financial globalization. We provide a detailed documentation of the evolution of China's capital controls, a proximate determinant of the pattern of capital inflows. We also discuss a number of other intriguing hypotheses that attempt to capture the "deeper" causes underlying China's approach to capital flows. In particular, we argue that some popular mercantilist-type arguments are inconsistent with the facts. We also analyze the recent rapid rise of China's international reserves and discuss its implications. Contrary to some popular perceptions, the dramatic surge in foreign exchange reserves since 2001 is mainly attributable to non-FDI capital inflows, rather than current account surpluses or FDI"--NBER website

China's Impact on Global Financial Markets

China's Impact on Global Financial Markets
Author: Isha Agarwal
Publisher:
Total Pages: 79
Release: 2019
Genre: Capital movements
ISBN:

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We analyze shifts in the structure of China's capital outflows over the past decade. The composition of gross outflows has shifted from accumulation of foreign exchange reserves by the central bank to nonofficial outflows. Unlocking the enormous pool of domestic savings could have a significant impact on global financial markets as China continues to open up its capital account and as domestic investors look abroad for returns and diversification. We analyze in detail the allocation patterns of Chinese institutional investors (IIs), which constitute the main channel for foreign portfolio investment outflows. We find that, relative to benchmarks based on market capitalization, Chinese IIs underweight developed countries and high-tech sectors in their international portfolio allocations but overinvest in high-tech stocks in developed countries. To further examine Chinese IIs' joint decisions on destination country-sector pairs, we construct continuous measures of revealed relative comparative advantage and disadvantage in a sector for a country based on trade patterns. We find that, in their foreign portfolio allocations, Chinese IIs overweight sectors in which China has a comparative disadvantage. Moreover, Chinese IIs concentrate such investments in countries that have higher relative comparative advantage in those sectors. Diversification and information advantages related to foreign imports to China seem to influence patterns of foreign portfolio allocations, while yield-seeking and learning motives do not.

Foreign Direct Investment in China

Foreign Direct Investment in China
Author: Ms.Wanda Tseng
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 26
Release: 2002-02-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1451974175

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China's increasing openness to foreign direct investment (FDI) has contributed importantly to its exceptional growth performance. This paper examines China's experience with FDI and identifies some lessons for other countries. Most of the factors explaining China's success have also been important in attracting FDI to other countries: market size, labor costs, quality of infrastructure, and government policies. FDI has contributed to higher investment and productivity growth, and has created jobs and a dynamic export sector. China's success, however, did not come without some pitfalls: an increasingly complex tax incentive system and growing regional income disparities. Accession to the WTO should broaden China's "opening up" policies and continue FDI's contributions to China's economy in the future.

The Chinese Approach to Capital Inflows

The Chinese Approach to Capital Inflows
Author: Eswar S. Prasad
Publisher:
Total Pages: 62
Release: 2011
Genre:
ISBN:

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In this paper, we adopt a cross-country perspective to examine the evolution of capital flows into China, both in terms of volumes and composition. China`s inflows have generally been dominated by foreign direct investment (FDI), a pattern that appears to be favorable in light of the recent literature on the experiences of developing countries with financial globalization. We provide a detailed documentation of the evolution of China`s capital controls, a proximate determinant of the pattern of capital inflows. We also discuss a number of other intriguing hypotheses that attempt to capture the deeper causes underlying China`s approach to capital flows. In particular, we argue that some popular mercantilist-type arguments are inconsistent with the facts. We also analyze the recent rapid rise of China`s international reserves and discuss its implications. Contrary to some popular perceptions, the dramatic surge in foreign exchange reserves since 2001 is mainly attributable to non-FDI capital inflows, rather than current account surpluses or FDI.

The Determinants of China's International Portfolio Equity Allocations

The Determinants of China's International Portfolio Equity Allocations
Author: Isha Agarwal
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2020
Genre:
ISBN:

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We analyze shifts in the structure of China's capital outflows over the past decade. The composition of gross outflows has shifted from accumulation of foreign exchange reserves by the central bank to nonofficial outflows. Unlocking the enormous pool of domestic savings could have a significant impact on global financial markets as China continues to open up its capital account and as domestic investors look abroad for returns and diversification. We analyze in detail the allocation patterns of Chinese institutional investors (IIs), which constitute the main channel for foreign portfolio investment outflows. We find that, relative to benchmarks based on market capitalization, Chinese IIs underweight developed countries and high-tech sectors in their international portfolio allocations but overinvest in high-tech stocks in developed countries. To further examine Chinese IIs' joint decisions on destination country-sector pairs, we construct continuous measures of revealed relative comparative advantage and disadvantage in a sector for a country based on trade patterns. We find that, in their foreign portfolio allocations, Chinese IIs overweight sectors in which China has a comparative disadvantage. Moreover, Chinese IIs concentrate such investments in countries that have higher relative comparative advantage in those sectors. Diversification and information advantages related to foreign imports to China seem to influence patterns of foreign portfolio allocations, while yield-seeking and learning motives do not.

What to Expect when China Liberalizes Its Capital Account

What to Expect when China Liberalizes Its Capital Account
Author: Mark Kruger
Publisher:
Total Pages: 28
Release: 2016
Genre: Capital movements
ISBN:

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When China joined the World Trade Organization in December 2001, it marked a watershed for the world economy. Ten years from now, the opening of China's capital account and the financial integration that will unfold will be viewed as a milestone of similar importance. This paper discusses the benefits, to China and the rest of the world, of deepening China's capital account liberalization. We assess China's current level of de jure and de facto integration, in relation to other G20 economies. We update the Pasricha et al. (2015) data on capital control actions to 2015 for China, to assess China's international financial integration. We also look at its relative international investment position to gauge its de facto integration. We then estimate the size and composition of capital flows likely to ensue assuming that China's further capital account liberalization results in its gross international investment position converging to that of the G20 average. In addition, we discuss the risks involved with the further opening of China's capital account and how they can best be managed. We also emphasize the potentially stabilizing effects of residents' flows and the importance of liberalizing inflows and outflows in a balanced way and at the same time.

China's $1.5 Trillion Bet

China's $1.5 Trillion Bet
Author:
Publisher:
Total Pages: 24
Release: 2009
Genre: Bank reserves
ISBN:

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This paper was originally published in January 2009. The May update incorporates quarter one 2009 data on China's foreign reserves, the Treasury International Capital (TIC) capital flows data for December, January, and February, and the results of the June 2008 survey of foreign portfolio investment in the United States. The June 2008 survey indicated that China bought fewer Treasury bonds and more equities than the authors estimated in the January paper. China reported $1.95 trillion in foreign exchange reserves at the end of March 2009. This is by far the largest stockpile of foreign exchange in the world: China holds roughly two times more reserves than Japan, and four times more than either Russia or Saudi Arabia. Moreover, China's true foreign portfolio exceeds its disclosed foreign exchange reserves. This paper aims to summarize current knowledge about the size and composition of China's external portfolio in order to get a better sense of China's impact on global markets.

Chinese Investment in Latin America: Sectoral Complementarity and the Impact of China’s Rebalancing

Chinese Investment in Latin America: Sectoral Complementarity and the Impact of China’s Rebalancing
Author: Ding Ding
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 32
Release: 2021-06-07
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1513573349

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Over the last decade China’s investment in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) has increased substantially in volume and become more diversified from natural resources to other industries. Using cross-border mergers and acquisitions data, we demonstrate that since mid-2010s China’s overseas investment has tilted toward sectors where China has a comparative advantage in the global markets, a trend similar to that of other major foreign direct investment (FDI) source countries. Moreover, China’s rising overseas investment can be linked to the rebalancing of Chinese economy, and LAC stands to benefit from its complementarity vis-à-vis China in sectors where the rising Chinese overseas investment can be met with LAC’s own investment gaps. The COVID-19 pandemic could have a long-lasting impact on global value chains and FDI flows, which poses both challenges and opportunities to LAC in attracting FDI, including from China, to support the region’s long-run economic development.

The Future of China's Bond Market

The Future of China's Bond Market
Author: Mr. Alfred Schipke
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 52
Release: 2019-03-13
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 151358278X

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China’s bond market is destined to play an increasingly important role, both at home and abroad. And the inclusion of the country’s bonds in global indexes will be a milestone for its financial market integration, bringing big opportunities as well as challenges for policymakers and investors alike. This calls for a good understanding of China’s bond market structure, its unique characteristics, and areas where reforms are needed. This volume comprehensively analyzes the different segments of China’s bond market, from sovereign, policy bank, and credit bonds, to the rapidly growing local government bond market. It also covers bond futures, green bonds, and asset-backed securities, as well as China’s offshore market, which has played a major role in onshore market development.