Technical Trading, Monetary Policy, and Exchange Rate Regimes

Technical Trading, Monetary Policy, and Exchange Rate Regimes
Author: Bernhard Herz
Publisher:
Total Pages: 31
Release: 2007
Genre:
ISBN:

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The paper extends and empirically tests the noise trader exchange rate model of Jeanne and Rose (2002). We introduce technical trading in the exchange market as a source of noise and explicitly incorporate monetary and exchange rate policy. With these modifications it is possible to directly test the model's prediction of an U shaped relation between exchange trend and volatility. We find strong empirical evidence supporting the implications of the model. As a corollary we develop a measure of excess exchange rate volatility and categorize exchange rate regimes based on the de facto behavior of the exchange rates.The paper extends and empirically tests the noise trader exchange rate model of Jeanne and Rose (2002). We introduce technical trading in the exchange market as a source of noise and explicitly incorporate monetary and exchange rate policy. With these modifications it is possible to directly test the model's prediction of an U shaped relation between exchange trend and volatility. We find strong empirical evidence supporting the implications of the model. As a corollary we develop a measure of excess exchange rate volatility and categorize exchange rate regimes based on the de facto behavior of the exchange rates.

Exchange Rate Regimes

Exchange Rate Regimes
Author: Atish R. Ghosh
Publisher: MIT Press
Total Pages: 252
Release: 2002
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9780262072403

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An empirical study of exchange rate regimes based on data compiled from 150 member countries of the International Monetary Fund over the past thirty years. Few topics in international economics are as controversial as the choice of an exchange rate regime. Since the breakdown of the Bretton Woods system in the early 1970s, countries have adopted a wide variety of regimes, ranging from pure floats at one extreme to currency boards and dollarization at the other. While a vast theoretical literature explores the choice and consequences of exchange rate regimes, the abundance of possible effects makes it difficult to establish clear relationships between regimes and common macroeconomic policy targets such as inflation and growth. This book takes a systematic look at the evidence on macroeconomic performance under alternative exchange rate regimes, drawing on the experience of some 150 member countries of the International Monetary Fund over the past thirty years. Among other questions, it asks whether pegging the exchange rate leads to lower inflation, whether floating exchange rates are associated with faster output growth, and whether pegged regimes are particularly prone to currency and other crises. The book draws on history and theory to delineate the debate and on standard statistical methods to assess the empirical evidence, and includes a CD-ROM containing the data set used.

Exchange Rate Regimes in the Twentieth Century

Exchange Rate Regimes in the Twentieth Century
Author: Derek Howard Aldcroft
Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing
Total Pages: 0
Release: 1998
Genre: Foreign exchange administration
ISBN: 9781840645705

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Provides an account of the evolution of exchange rate regimes in the 20th century, in chronological, non-technical format. Links between the past and present shed light on the merits of different exchange rate systems. Discusses forces that have brought about change in order to determine how different regimes affected the economic environment, considers the merits or otherwise of the respective regimes, and assesses arguments for and against fixed and floating exchange ratesAnnotation copyrighted by Book News, Inc., Portland, OR

Reference Rates and the International Monetary System

Reference Rates and the International Monetary System
Author: John Williamson
Publisher: Columbia University Press
Total Pages: 73
Release: 2007-04-30
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0881324795

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Growing global imbalances threaten to induce a collapse of the dollar, which could in turn produce a severe recession in the rest of the world. This crisis could force countries to say "never again" and search for a system to prevent similar disasters. The system that could do so is a reference rate system—where countries' authorities are forbidden from intervening in order to push the exchange rate too far from what is termed the "reference rate." It could help a country's authorities manage its exchange rate to avoid large misalignments, assist the private sector in forming more dependable expectations of future exchange rates and thus to manage their businesses more efficiently in a world of floating exchange rates, and aid the International Monetary Fund in designing and managing an effective system of multilateral surveillance. The world economy would function better as a result, with less chance of the global imbalances leading to a world recession.

Exchange Rate Regimes and Location

Exchange Rate Regimes and Location
Author: Mr.Luca Antonio Ricci
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 33
Release: 1997-06-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1451960824

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This paper investigates the effects of fixed versus flexible exchange rates on firms’ location choices and on countries’ specialization patterns. In a two-country, two-differentiated-goods monetary model, demand, supply, and monetary (as well as exchange rate) shocks arise after wages are set and prices are optimally chosen. The paper finds that countries are more specialized under flexible than fixed rates, and that the pattern of specialization is not uniquely defined by trade models but depends also on the exchange rate regime. The adoption of fixed exchange rates endogenously increases the desirability of this currency area by reducing the shock asymmetry. These results also shed light on the effects of exchange rate variability on trade.

Exchange Rate Regimes for Emerging Markets

Exchange Rate Regimes for Emerging Markets
Author: John Williamson
Publisher: Peterson Institute
Total Pages: 110
Release: 2000
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9780881322934

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In the aftermath of the Asian/global financial crises of 1997-98, how should emerging markets now structure their exchange rate systems to prevent new crises from occurring? This study challenges current orthodoxy by advocating the revival of intermediate exchange rate regimes. In so doing, Williamson presents a reasoned challenge to the new prevailing attitude which claims that all countries involved in the international capital markets need to polarize to one of the extreme regimes (to a fixed rate with either a currency board or dollarization, or to a lightly-managed float). He concludes that although there is some truth in the allegation that intermediate regimes are vulnerable to speculative crises, they still offer offsetting advantages. He also contends that it would be possible to redesign them to be more flexible so as to reduce their vulnerability to crises.

Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Regimes

Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Regimes
Author: Eliana Cardoso
Publisher: American Univ in Cairo Press
Total Pages: 362
Release: 2006-02-15
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9789771727590

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Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Regimes: Options for the Middle East examines some of the most pressing issues facing policymakers today. The authors offer answers to such questions as: Are the choices of exchange rate regime limited to hard fixing or fully floating? Are capital flight and banking crises avoidable? What is the best way to coordinate monetary and fiscal policies? The answers to these questions draw on the vast literature available on these topics as well as the lessons learned from recent crises, especially in East Asia and Latin America. Beside its broad coverage, this volume includes rich analyses on specific countries of the Middle East. It merits a wide readership, but policymakers seeking to achieve macroeconomic stability and growth will find it particularly useful.

Exchange Rate Regimes and Macroeconomic Stability

Exchange Rate Regimes and Macroeconomic Stability
Author: Lok Sang Ho
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 258
Release: 2011-06-28
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1461510414

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The Asian crisis of 1997-1998 was a major influence on macroeconomic thinking concerning exchange rate regimes, the functioning of international institutions, such as the IMF and the World Bank, and international contagion of macroeconomic instability from one country to another. Exchange Rate Regimes and Macroeconomic Stability offers perspectives on these issues from the viewpoints of two Nobel Laureates, an IMF economist, and Asian economists. This book contributes new ideas to the ongoing debate on the role of domestic monetary authorities and international institutions in reducing the likelihood of international financial crises, as well as the problems associated with various exchange rate regimes from the standpoint of macroeconomic stability. Overall, the chapters contained in this volume offer interesting perspectives, which have been stimulated by the recent events in the foreign exchange market. They provide a useful reference for anyone interested in the development of exchange rate regimes, and represent considerable reflection by economists half a century after Bretton Woods.

The Empirics of Exchange Rate Regimes and Trade

The Empirics of Exchange Rate Regimes and Trade
Author: Mr.Charalambos G. Tsangarides
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 46
Release: 2010-02-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 145196319X

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This paper examines the impact of exchange rate regimes on bilateral trade while differentiating the effects of "words" and "deeds". Our findings-based on an extended database for de jure and de facto exchange rate classifications-show that while fixed exchange rate regimes increase trade, there is no systematic difference in the effects of policy announcements versus actions to maintain exchange rate stability. The trade generating effect of more stable exchange rate regimes is however more pronounced when words and actions are aligned, both in the short and long-run. Policy credibility therefore plays an important role in determining the effects of de jure and de facto exchange rate arrangements such that deviations between the two could be costly. In addition, we find evidence that (i) the impact of hard pegs such as currency unions is broadly similar to that of conventional pegs; (ii) the currency union and direct peg effects evolve over time; and (iii) the effects of more stable regimes are heterogeneous across country groups.

Moving to a Flexible Exchange Rate

Moving to a Flexible Exchange Rate
Author: Mrs.Gilda Fernandez
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 29
Release: 2006-01-09
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1589064763

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A growing number of countries are adopting flexible exchange rate regimes because flexibility offers more protection against external shocks and greater monetary independence. Other countries have made the transition under disorderly conditions, with the sharp depreciation of their currency during a crisis. Regardless of the reason for adopting a flexible exchange rate, a successful transition depends on the effective management of a number of institutional and operational issues. The authors of this Economic Issue describe the necessary ingredients for moving to a flexible regime, as well as the optimal pace and sequencing under different conditions.