Study of Rising Benchmark 10-Year Bond Yield and Its Relevance to Economic Factors

Study of Rising Benchmark 10-Year Bond Yield and Its Relevance to Economic Factors
Author: Dr. Smita Jape
Publisher:
Total Pages: 10
Release: 2020
Genre:
ISBN:

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The paper reviews the increasing benchmark 10-year bond yield. It mentions the factors which are contributing towards the increase in bond yields and also the impact of rising bond yield on the Indian economy. The bond yield has impact on stock market, debt market and the currency of a country. The government bond yield of a country helps to understand the state of its economy and it is often compared with bond yields of other countries as well.The health of a country's economy is indicated by inflation, lending rate of the central bank, GDP growth rate, and national income and this can be analysed by an economist through Conventional metrics. The objective of paper is to understand the rising bond yield (benchmark) and factors affecting the Indian economy and study the correlation and influence of economic parameters such as Sensex, Nifty, FII, DII, CPI, India VIX and exchange rate. The secondary data of five years is being used for the study and the data is being further analysed by using statistical tools using SPSS software. The finding shows that for developing country like India how government is among the biggest investors in the economy, so for assessing economic health of the country, bond yields can be a useful parameter.Economists use conventional matrices for measuring the health of a country's economy which includes inflation, lending rate of the central bank, growth rate, and national income. These are further measured by as Sensex, Nifty, FII, DII, CPI, India VIX and exchange rate. However, bond yields are also a very perceptive means of evaluating the trajectory of an economy. As investors sell government bonds, prices decrease and yields increase. A higher yield indicates greater risk. If the yield offered by a bond is much higher than what it was when issued, there is a chance that the company or government that issued it is financially stressed and may not be able to repay the capital.

How the Federal Funds Rate Affects 10 Year Treasury Bond Yields

How the Federal Funds Rate Affects 10 Year Treasury Bond Yields
Author: Kane Snyder
Publisher:
Total Pages: 12
Release: 2008
Genre:
ISBN:

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Macroeconomic theory tells us that long-term interest rates tend to move in the same direction with short-term interest rates. So, we would expect the yield on a long-term asset like the10-year Treasury bond to move up when a short-term rate like the federal funds rate moves up. However, a cursory reading of financial news sources since the FOMC began its rate hike policy, through January 2005, show that the yield on the 10-year has actually fallen.This study will develop a predictive model to describe this direct influence and conclude that the federal funds rate directly influences the 10-year Treasury bond yield. This study will not try to predict what factors could be holding the yields down in any quantifiable way. The 10-year Treasury bond yield is a benchmark rate, important to bond investors looking for future indicators of inflation, and to areas such as housing and other loans; a predictive model will allow investors to more adequately gauge investment risk and loan officers to judge what interest rates to charge.

Determinants of Emerging Market Sovereign Bond Spreads

Determinants of Emerging Market Sovereign Bond Spreads
Author: Iva Petrova
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 28
Release: 2010-12-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1455252859

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This paper analyses the determimants of emerging market sovereign bond spreads by examining the short and long-run effects of fundamental (macroeconomic) and temporary (financial market) factors on these spreads. During the current global financial and economic crisis, sovereign bond spreads widened dramatically for both developed and emerging market economies. This deterioration has widely been attributed to rapidly growing public debts and balance sheet risks. Our results indicate that in the long run, fundamentals are significant determinants of emerging market sovereign bond spreads, while in the short run, financial volatility is a more important determinant of sperads than fundamentals indicators.

German Bond Yields and Debt Supply: Is There a “Bund Premium”?

German Bond Yields and Debt Supply: Is There a “Bund Premium”?
Author: Anne-Charlotte Paret
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 34
Release: 2019-11-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1513518321

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Are Bunds special? This paper estimates the “Bund premium” as the difference in convenience yields between other sovereign safe assets and German government bonds adjusted for sovereign credit risk, liquidity and swap market frictions. A higher premium suggests less substitutability of sovereign bonds. We document a rise in the “Bund premium” in the post-crisis period. We show that there is a negative relationship of the premium with the relative supply of German sovereign bonds, which is more pronounced for higher maturities and when risk aversion proxied by bond market volatility is high. Going forward, we expect German government debt supply to remain scarce, with important implications for the ECB’s monetary policy strategy.

International Macroeconomics in the Wake of the Global Financial Crisis

International Macroeconomics in the Wake of the Global Financial Crisis
Author: Laurent Ferrara
Publisher: Springer
Total Pages: 300
Release: 2018-06-13
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 3319790757

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This book collects selected articles addressing several currently debated issues in the field of international macroeconomics. They focus on the role of the central banks in the debate on how to come to terms with the long-term decline in productivity growth, insufficient aggregate demand, high economic uncertainty and growing inequalities following the global financial crisis. Central banks are of considerable importance in this debate since understanding the sluggishness of the recovery process as well as its implications for the natural interest rate are key to assessing output gaps and the monetary policy stance. The authors argue that a more dynamic domestic and external aggregate demand helps to raise the inflation rate, easing the constraint deriving from the zero lower bound and allowing monetary policy to depart from its current ultra-accommodative position. Beyond macroeconomic factors, the book also discusses a supportive financial environment as a precondition for the rebound of global economic activity, stressing that understanding capital flows is a prerequisite for economic-policy decisions.

Yield Curve Modeling and Forecasting

Yield Curve Modeling and Forecasting
Author: Francis X. Diebold
Publisher: Princeton University Press
Total Pages: 223
Release: 2013-01-15
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0691146802

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Understanding the dynamic evolution of the yield curve is critical to many financial tasks, including pricing financial assets and their derivatives, managing financial risk, allocating portfolios, structuring fiscal debt, conducting monetary policy, and valuing capital goods. Unfortunately, most yield curve models tend to be theoretically rigorous but empirically disappointing, or empirically successful but theoretically lacking. In this book, Francis Diebold and Glenn Rudebusch propose two extensions of the classic yield curve model of Nelson and Siegel that are both theoretically rigorous and empirically successful. The first extension is the dynamic Nelson-Siegel model (DNS), while the second takes this dynamic version and makes it arbitrage-free (AFNS). Diebold and Rudebusch show how these two models are just slightly different implementations of a single unified approach to dynamic yield curve modeling and forecasting. They emphasize both descriptive and efficient-markets aspects, they pay special attention to the links between the yield curve and macroeconomic fundamentals, and they show why DNS and AFNS are likely to remain of lasting appeal even as alternative arbitrage-free models are developed. Based on the Econometric and Tinbergen Institutes Lectures, Yield Curve Modeling and Forecasting contains essential tools with enhanced utility for academics, central banks, governments, and industry.

A Tea Reader

A Tea Reader
Author: Katrina Avila Munichiello
Publisher: Tuttle Publishing
Total Pages: 256
Release: 2017-03-21
Genre: Literary Collections
ISBN: 9780804848992

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A Tea Reader contains a selection of stories that cover the spectrum of life. This anthology shares the ways that tea has changed lives through personal, intimate stories. Read of deep family moments, conquered heartbreak, and peace found in the face of loss. A Tea Reader includes stories from all types of tea people: people brought up in the tea tradition, those newly discovering it, classic writings from long-ago tea lovers and those making tea a career. Together these tales create a new image of a tea drinker. They show that tea is not simply something you drink, but it also provides quiet moments for making important decisions, a catalyst for conversation, and the energy we sometimes need to operate in our lives. The stories found in A Tea Reader cover the spectrum of life, such as the development of new friendships, beginning new careers, taking dream journeys, and essentially sharing the deep moments of life with friends and families. Whether you are a tea lover or not, here you will discover stories that speak to you and inspire you. Sit down, grab a cup, and read on.

Banks, Government Bonds, and Default

Banks, Government Bonds, and Default
Author: Nicola Gennaioli
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 53
Release: 2014-07-08
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1498391990

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We analyze holdings of public bonds by over 20,000 banks in 191 countries, and the role of these bonds in 20 sovereign defaults over 1998-2012. Banks hold many public bonds (on average 9% of their assets), particularly in less financially-developed countries. During sovereign defaults, banks increase their exposure to public bonds, especially large banks and when expected bond returns are high. At the bank level, bondholdings correlate negatively with subsequent lending during sovereign defaults. This correlation is mostly due to bonds acquired in pre-default years. These findings shed light on alternative theories of the sovereign default-banking crisis nexus.