Science and Judgment in Risk Assessment

Science and Judgment in Risk Assessment
Author: National Research Council
Publisher: National Academies Press
Total Pages: 668
Release: 1994-01-01
Genre: Science
ISBN: 030904894X

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The public depends on competent risk assessment from the federal government and the scientific community to grapple with the threat of pollution. When risk reports turn out to be overblownâ€"or when risks are overlookedâ€"public skepticism abounds. This comprehensive and readable book explores how the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) can improve its risk assessment practices, with a focus on implementation of the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments. With a wealth of detailed information, pertinent examples, and revealing analysis, the volume explores the "default option" and other basic concepts. It offers two views of EPA operations: The first examines how EPA currently assesses exposure to hazardous air pollutants, evaluates the toxicity of a substance, and characterizes the risk to the public. The second, more holistic, view explores how EPA can improve in several critical areas of risk assessment by focusing on cross-cutting themes and incorporating more scientific judgment. This comprehensive volume will be important to the EPA and other agencies, risk managers, environmental advocates, scientists, faculty, students, and concerned individuals.

Science and Decisions

Science and Decisions
Author: National Research Council
Publisher: National Academies Press
Total Pages: 422
Release: 2009-03-24
Genre: Political Science
ISBN: 0309120462

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Risk assessment has become a dominant public policy tool for making choices, based on limited resources, to protect public health and the environment. It has been instrumental to the mission of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) as well as other federal agencies in evaluating public health concerns, informing regulatory and technological decisions, prioritizing research needs and funding, and in developing approaches for cost-benefit analysis. However, risk assessment is at a crossroads. Despite advances in the field, risk assessment faces a number of significant challenges including lengthy delays in making complex decisions; lack of data leading to significant uncertainty in risk assessments; and many chemicals in the marketplace that have not been evaluated and emerging agents requiring assessment. Science and Decisions makes practical scientific and technical recommendations to address these challenges. This book is a complement to the widely used 1983 National Academies book, Risk Assessment in the Federal Government (also known as the Red Book). The earlier book established a framework for the concepts and conduct of risk assessment that has been adopted by numerous expert committees, regulatory agencies, and public health institutions. The new book embeds these concepts within a broader framework for risk-based decision-making. Together, these are essential references for those working in the regulatory and public health fields.

Risk Assessment in the Federal Government

Risk Assessment in the Federal Government
Author: National Research Council
Publisher: National Academies Press
Total Pages: 206
Release: 1983-02-01
Genre: Medical
ISBN: 0309033497

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The regulation of potentially hazardous substances has become a controversial issue. This volume evaluates past efforts to develop and use risk assessment guidelines, reviews the experience of regulatory agencies with different administrative arrangements for risk assessment, and evaluates various proposals to modify procedures. The book's conclusions and recommendations can be applied across the entire field of environmental health.

Science and Judgment in Risk Assessment

Science and Judgment in Risk Assessment
Author: Committee on Risk Assessment of Hazardous Air Pollutants
Publisher: National Academies Press
Total Pages: 638
Release: 1994-01-15
Genre: Science
ISBN: 9780309074902

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The public depends on competent risk assessment from the federal government and the scientific community to grapple with the threat of pollution. When risk reports turn out to be overblown--or when risks are overlooked--public skepticism abounds. This comprehensive and readable book explores how the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) can improve its risk assessment practices, with a focus on implementation of the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments. With a wealth of detailed information, pertinent examples, and revealing analysis, the volume explores the "default option" and other basic concepts. It offers two views of EPA operations: The first examines how EPA currently assesses exposure to hazardous air pollutants, evaluates the toxicity of a substance, and characterizes the risk to the public. The second, more holistic, view explores how EPA can improve in several critical areas of risk assessment by focusing on cross-cutting themes and incorporating more scientific judgment. This comprehensive volume will be important to the EPA and other agencies, risk managers, environmental advocates, scientists, faculty, students, and concerned individuals.

Scientific Review of the Proposed Risk Assessment Bulletin from the Office of Management and Budget

Scientific Review of the Proposed Risk Assessment Bulletin from the Office of Management and Budget
Author: National Research Council
Publisher: National Academies Press
Total Pages: 302
Release: 2007-04-16
Genre: Political Science
ISBN: 0309178886

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Risk assessments are often used by the federal government to estimate the risk the public may face from such things as exposure to a chemical or the potential failure of an engineered structure, and they underlie many regulatory decisions. Last January, the White House Office of Management and Budget (OMB) issued a draft bulletin for all federal agencies, which included a new definition of risk assessment and proposed standards aimed at improving federal risk assessments. This National Research Council report, written at the request of OMB, evaluates the draft bulletin and supports its overall goals of improving the quality of risk assessments. However, the report concludes that the draft bulletin is "fundamentally flawed" from a scientific and technical standpoint and should be withdrawn. Problems include an overly broad definition of risk assessment in conflict with long-established concepts and practices, and an overly narrow definition of adverse health effects-one that considers only clinically apparent effects to be adverse, ignoring other biological changes that could lead to health effects. The report also criticizes the draft bulletin for focusing mainly on human health risk assessments while neglecting assessments of technology and engineered structures.

Expert Judgement in Risk and Decision Analysis

Expert Judgement in Risk and Decision Analysis
Author: Anca M. Hanea
Publisher: Springer Nature
Total Pages: 503
Release: 2021-02-19
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 3030464741

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This book pulls together many perspectives on the theory, methods and practice of drawing judgments from panels of experts in assessing risks and making decisions in complex circumstances. The book is divided into four parts: Structured Expert Judgment (SEJ) current research fronts; the contributions of Roger Cooke and the Classical Model he developed; process, procedures and education; and applications. After an Introduction by the Editors, the first part presents chapters on expert elicitation of parameters of multinomial models; the advantages of using performance weighting by advancing the “random expert” hypothesis; expert elicitation for specific graphical models; modelling dependencies between experts’ assessments within a Bayesian framework; preventive maintenance optimization in a Bayesian framework; eliciting life time distributions to parametrize a Dirichlet process; and on an adversarial risk analysis approach for structured expert judgment studies. The second part includes Roger Cooke’s oration from 1995 on taking up his chair at Delft University of Technology; one of the editors reflections on the early decade of the Classical Model development and use; a current overview of the theory of the Classical Model, providing a deep and comprehensive perspective on its foundations and its application; and an interview with Roger Cooke. The third part starts with an interview with Professor Dame Anne Glover, who served as the Chief Scientific Advisor to the President of the European Commission. It then presents chapters on the characteristics of good elicitations by reviewing those advocated and applied; the design and development of a training course for SEJ; and on specific experiences with SEJ protocols with the intention of presenting the challenges and insights collected during these journeys. Finally, the fourth (and largest) part begins with some reflections from Willy Aspinall on his many experiences in applying the Classical Model in several application domains; it continues with related reflections on imperfect elicitations; and then it presents chapters with applications on medicines policy and management, supply chain cyber risk management, geo-political risks, terrorism and the risks facing businesses looking to internationalise.

Understanding Risk

Understanding Risk
Author: National Research Council
Publisher: National Academies Press
Total Pages: 263
Release: 1996-06-05
Genre: Political Science
ISBN: 0309133246

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Understanding Risk addresses a central dilemma of risk decisionmaking in a democracy: detailed scientific and technical information is essential for making decisions, but the people who make and live with those decisions are not scientists. The key task of risk characterization is to provide needed and appropriate information to decisionmakers and the public. This important new volume illustrates that making risks understandable to the public involves much more than translating scientific knowledge. The volume also draws conclusions about what society should expect from risk characterization and offers clear guidelines and principles for informing the wide variety of risk decisions that face our increasingly technological society. Frames fundamental questions about what risk characterization means. Reviews traditional definitions and explores new conceptual and practical approaches. Explores how risk characterization should inform decisionmakers and the public. Looks at risk characterization in the context of the entire decisionmaking process. Understanding Risk discusses how risk characterization has fallen short in many recent controversial decisions. Throughout the text, examples and case studiesâ€"such as planning for the long-term ecological health of the Everglades or deciding on the operation of a waste incineratorâ€"bring key concepts to life. Understanding Risk will be important to anyone involved in risk issues: federal, state, and local policymakers and regulators; risk managers; scientists; industrialists; researchers; and concerned individuals.

Environmental Decisions in the Face of Uncertainty

Environmental Decisions in the Face of Uncertainty
Author: Institute of Medicine
Publisher: National Academies Press
Total Pages: 280
Release: 2013-05-20
Genre: Political Science
ISBN: 0309290236

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The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is one of several federal agencies responsible for protecting Americans against significant risks to human health and the environment. As part of that mission, EPA estimates the nature, magnitude, and likelihood of risks to human health and the environment; identifies the potential regulatory actions that will mitigate those risks and protect public health1 and the environment; and uses that information to decide on appropriate regulatory action. Uncertainties, both qualitative and quantitative, in the data and analyses on which these decisions are based enter into the process at each step. As a result, the informed identification and use of the uncertainties inherent in the process is an essential feature of environmental decision making. EPA requested that the Institute of Medicine (IOM) convene a committee to provide guidance to its decision makers and their partners in states and localities on approaches to managing risk in different contexts when uncertainty is present. It also sought guidance on how information on uncertainty should be presented to help risk managers make sound decisions and to increase transparency in its communications with the public about those decisions. Given that its charge is not limited to human health risk assessment and includes broad questions about managing risks and decision making, in this report the committee examines the analysis of uncertainty in those other areas in addition to human health risks. Environmental Decisions in the Face of Uncertainty explains the statement of task and summarizes the findings of the committee.

Environmental Impact Assessment, Technology Assessment, and Risk Analysis

Environmental Impact Assessment, Technology Assessment, and Risk Analysis
Author: Vincent T. Covello
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 1059
Release: 2013-06-29
Genre: Medical
ISBN: 3642706347

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This volume is the outcome of a recent NATO Advanced Study Institute (ASI) on "Technology Assessment. Environmental Impact Assessment. and Risk Analysis: Contributions from the Psychological and Decision Sciences." The Institute was held in Les Arcs. France and functioned as a high level teaching activity during which scientific research results were presented in detail by eminent lecturers. Support for the Institute was provided by grants from the NATO Division of Scientific Affairs. the u.S. Office of Naval Research. and the Russell Sage Foundation. The Institute covered several areas of research. including quantitative studies on decision and judgmental processes. studies on human intellectual limitations. studies on risk attitudes and perceptions. studies on factors contributing to conflicts and disputes about hazardous technologies and activities. studies on factors influencing forecasts and judgments by experts. studies on public preferences for decisionmaking processes. studies on public responses to technological hazards. and case studies applying principles and methods from the psychological and decision sciences in specific settings.