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| Author | : United States. Congress. Senate. Select Committee on National Water Resources |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 60 |
| Release | : 1960 |
| Genre | : Metropolitan areas |
| ISBN | : |
| Author | : Stanley K. Smith |
| Publisher | : Springer Science & Business Media |
| Total Pages | : 433 |
| Release | : 2005-12-21 |
| Genre | : Social Science |
| ISBN | : 0306473720 |
The initial plans for this book sprang from a late-afternoon conversation in a hotel bar. All three authors were attending the 1996 meeting of the Population As- ciation of America in New Orleans. While nursing drinks and expounding on a variety of topics, we began talking about our current research projects. It so happened that all three of us had been entertaining the notion of writing a book on state and local population projections. Recognizing the enormity of the project for a single author, we quickly decided to collaborate. Had we not decided to work together, it is unlikely that this book ever would have been written. The last comprehensive treatment of state and local population projections was Don Pittenger’s excellent work Projecting State and Local Populations (1976). Many changes affecting the production of population projections have occurred since that time. Technological changes have led to vast increases in computing power, new data sources, the development of GIS, and the creation of the Internet. The procedures for applying a number of projection methods have changed considerably, and several completely new methods have been developed.
| Author | : United States. Bureau of the Census |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 49 |
| Release | : 1960 |
| Genre | : Metropolitan areas |
| ISBN | : |
| Author | : United States. Congress. Senate. Select Committee on National Water Resources |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 57 |
| Release | : 1960 |
| Genre | : Population |
| ISBN | : |
By Census Bureau and Resources for the Future.
| Author | : Stanley K. Smith |
| Publisher | : Springer Science & Business Media |
| Total Pages | : 417 |
| Release | : 2013-12-16 |
| Genre | : Social Science |
| ISBN | : 9400775512 |
This book focuses on the methodology and analysis of state and local population projections. It describes the most commonly used data sources and application techniques for four types of projection methods: cohort-component, trend extrapolation, structural models, and microsimulation. It covers the components of population growth, sources of data, the formation of assumptions, the development of evaluation criteria, and the determinants of forecast accuracy. It considers the strengths and weaknesses of various projection methods and pays special attention to the unique problems that characterize small-area projections. The authors provide practical guidance to demographers, planners, market analysts, and others called on to construct state and local population projections. They use many examples and illustrations and present suggestions for dealing with special populations, unique circumstances, and inadequate or unreliable data. They describe techniques for controlling one set of projections to another, for interpolating between time points, for sub-dividing age groups, and for constructing projections of population-related variables (e.g., school enrollment, households). They discuss the role of judgment and the importance of the political context in which projections are made. They emphasize the “utility” of projections, or their usefulness for decision making in a world of competing demands and limited resources. This comprehensive book will provide readers with an understanding not only of the mechanics of the most commonly used population projection methods, but also of the many complex issues affecting their construction, interpretation, evaluation, and use.
| Author | : Harold A. Hovey |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 40 |
| Release | : 1981 |
| Genre | : Pension trusts |
| ISBN | : |
| Author | : Henry Van Beuren Stanbery |
| Publisher | : U.S. Government Printing Office |
| Total Pages | : 98 |
| Release | : 1952 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : |
| Author | : Wolfgang Lutz |
| Publisher | : Routledge |
| Total Pages | : 527 |
| Release | : 2013-11-05 |
| Genre | : Social Science |
| ISBN | : 1134065892 |
The highly acclaimed The Future Population of the World contains the most authoritative assessment available of the extent to which population is likely to grow over the next 50 to 100 years. The book provides a thorough analysis of all the components of population change and translates these factors into a series of projections for the population of the world's regions. This revised and updated version incorporates completely new scenario projections based on updating starting values and revised assumptions, plus several methodological improvements. It also contains the best currently available information on global trends in AIDS mortality and the first ever fully probabilistic world population projections. The projections, given up to 2100, add important additional features to those of the UN and the World Bank: they show the impacts of alternative assumptions for all three components (mortality and migration, as well as fertility); they explicitly take into account possible environmental limits to growth; and, for the first time, they define confidence levels for global populations. Combining methodological innovation with overviews of the most recent data and literature, this updated edition of The Future Population of the World is sure to conform its reputation as the most comprehensive and essential publication in the field.
| Author | : Ansley Johnson Coale |
| Publisher | : Princeton University Press |
| Total Pages | : 412 |
| Release | : 2015-12-08 |
| Genre | : Social Science |
| ISBN | : 1400878594 |
The main contribution of this book lies in its focus on real alternatives in future population growth. At some time-taken as 1956 in India for this case study-a low-income country may have the option of effectively promoting the reduction of fertility, or (by inaction) of permitting fertility to remain at high levels. This book clearly shows the nature and extent of the economic gains resulting from fertility reduction. Since most low-income areas are destined for rapid population growth even with substantial fertility declines, the emphasis is placed between moderately rapid and very rapid growth. The extensive quantitative population projections show the importance of the growth rate itself and of changes in age distribution in addition to population size. The results for India have direct implications for all low-income, primarily agrarian areas entering a program of economic development. Originally published in 1958. The Princeton Legacy Library uses the latest print-on-demand technology to again make available previously out-of-print books from the distinguished backlist of Princeton University Press. These editions preserve the original texts of these important books while presenting them in durable paperback and hardcover editions. The goal of the Princeton Legacy Library is to vastly increase access to the rich scholarly heritage found in the thousands of books published by Princeton University Press since its founding in 1905.
| Author | : National Research Council |
| Publisher | : National Academies Press |
| Total Pages | : 368 |
| Release | : 2000-09-11 |
| Genre | : Social Science |
| ISBN | : 0309172020 |
Is rapid world population growth actually coming to an end? As population growth and its consequences have become front-page issues, projections of slowing growth from such institutions as the United Nations and the World Bank have been called into question. Beyond Six Billion asks what such projections really say, why they say it, whether they can be trusted, and whether they can be improved. The book includes analysis of how well past U.N. and World Bank projections have panned out, what errors have occurred, and why they have happened. Focusing on fertility as one key to accurate projections, the committee examines the transition from high, constant fertility to low fertility levels and discusses whether developing countries will eventually attain the very low levels of births now observed in the industrialized world. Other keys to accurate projections, predictions of lengthening life span and of the impact of international migration on specific countries, are also explored in detail. How good are our methods of population forecasting? How can we cope with the inevitable uncertainty? What population trends can we anticipate? Beyond Six Billion illuminates not only the forces that shape population growth but also the accuracy of the methods we use to quantify these forces and the uncertainty surrounding projections. The Committee on Population was established by the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) in 1983 to bring the knowledge and methods of the population sciences to bear on major issues of science and public policy. The committee's work includes both basic studies of fertility, health and mortality, and migration; and applied studies aimed at improving programs for the public health and welfare in the United States and in developing countries. The committee also fosters communication among researchers in different disciplines and countries and policy makers in government, international agencies, and private organizations. The work of the committee is made possible by funding from several government agencies and private foundations.
