Macrofinancial Risk Analysis

Macrofinancial Risk Analysis
Author: Dale Gray
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Total Pages: 362
Release: 2008-04-30
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9780470756324

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Macrofinancial risk analysis Dale Gray and Samuel Malone Macrofinancial Risk Analysis provides a new and powerful framework with which policymakers and investors can analyze risk and vulnerability in economies, both emerging market and industrial. Using modern risk management and financial engineering techniques applied to the macroeconomy, an economic value can be placed on the risks posed by inter-linkages between sectors, the risk of default of different sectors on their outstanding debt obligations quantified, and the value ex-ante of guarantees to private sector entities by the government calculated. This book guides the reader through the basic macroeconomic and financial models necessary to understand the framework, the core analytical tools, and more advanced contributions that will be of interest to researchers. This unique synthesis of ideas from finance and macroeconomics offers several original contributions to the theory of financial crises, as well as a range of new policy options for governments interested in achieving a better tradeoff between economic growth and macro risk.

Dealing with the Challenges of Macro Financial Linkages in Emerging Markets

Dealing with the Challenges of Macro Financial Linkages in Emerging Markets
Author: Otaviano Canuto
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Total Pages: 307
Release: 2013-10-29
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1464800030

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This book deals with the challenges of macro financial linkages in the emerging markets.

Approaches to Macrofinancial Surveillance in Article IV Reports

Approaches to Macrofinancial Surveillance in Article IV Reports
Author: International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 44
Release: 2017-03-28
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1498347037

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The Fund has made good progress over the past two years in integrating macrofinancial analysis into Article IV surveillance for a wide range of members. Building on past work to enhance financial sector analysis, Fund staff has sought to develop a consistent and forward-looking view on how the financial sector affects each member’s economic outlook with the aim of strengthening staff’s capacity to provide advice on macro-critical questions. The focus has been on developing a fuller understanding of macrofinancial linkages, and applying this analysis to inform policy advice. Staff has sought to articulate the role of the financial sector in the macroeconomic baseline, and to integrate the financial sector into the risk assessment, taking into account both the impact of macro shocks on the financial sector as well as the effect of financial shocks on macroeconomic stability. Strengthening the analytical foundations of this work has helped staff provide advice in all policy areas, including financial sector policies. Staff has tailored macrofinancial analysis to the circumstances of a diverse set of economies. Area departments have taken the lead in selecting 66 economies for enhanced macrofinancial coverage and in identifying topics, drawing on targeted support from functional departments. The choice of coverage has included legacies from the global financial crisis—such as deleveraging and stretched balance sheets in advanced economies and some emerging markets—and more recent challenges such as commodity price shocks, especially in low income countries, and the risks of housing booms. The financial sector’s contribution to growth and inclusion has become an important question in countries across all income groups. Staff sees benefits in mainstreaming this approach across the membership, while continuing to address analytical gaps and adapting to new challenges. The work of the past two years has underscored the criticality of macrofinancial analysis for a diverse range of members, and laid the basis for progressively mainstreaming macrofinancial surveillance across the membership. Building on this progress, staff sees scope for the Fund to deepen its understanding of the macroeconomic effects of financial shocks, to better adapt microprudential and macroprudential policy advice with an assessment of macro-critical risks including systemic risk, and to deepen the analysis of outward spillovers. Staff will also need to continue to adapt the focus of analysis and tools, and seek relevant data, as economic challenges evolve.

Managing Macrofinancial Risk

Managing Macrofinancial Risk
Author: Tobias Adrian
Publisher:
Total Pages: 60
Release: 2020-08-07
Genre:
ISBN: 9781513550893

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We augment a linearized dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with a tractable endogenous risk mechanism, to support the joint analysis of monetary and macroprudential policy. This state dependent conditional heteroskedasticity mechanism specifies the conditional variances of structural shocks as functions of the business or financial cycle. The resultant heteroskedastic linearized DSGE model preserves the satisfactory simulation and forecasting performance of its nested homoskedastic counterpart for the conditional means of endogenous variables, while substantially improving its goodness of fit to their conditional distributions. In particular, the model matches the key stylized facts of growth at risk. Accounting for state dependent conditional heteroskedasticity makes it optimal for monetary policy to respond more aggressively to the business cycle, and for macroprudential policy to manage the resilience of the banking sector more actively over the financial cycle.

New Framework for Measuring and Managing Macrofinancial Risk and Financial Stability

New Framework for Measuring and Managing Macrofinancial Risk and Financial Stability
Author: Dale Gray
Publisher:
Total Pages: 46
Release: 2007
Genre: Financial risk
ISBN:

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This paper proposes a new approach to improve the way central banks can analyze and manage the financial risks of a national economy. It is based on the modern theory and practice of contingent claims analysis (CCA), which is successfully used today at the level of individual banks by managers, investors, and regulators. The basic analytical tool is the risk-adjusted balance sheet, which shows the sensitivity of the enterprise's assets and liabilities to external "shocks." At the national level, the sectors of an economy are viewed as interconnected portfolios of assets, liabilities, and guarantees -- some explicit and others implicit. Traditional approaches have difficulty analyzing how risks can accumulate gradually and then suddenly erupt in a full-blown crisis. The CCA approach is well-suited to capturing such "non-linearities" and to quantifying the effects of asset-liability mismatches within and across institutions. Risk-adjusted CCA balance sheets facilitate simulations and stress testing to evaluate the potential impact of policies to manage systemic risk.

The MacroFinancial Risk Assessment Framework

The MacroFinancial Risk Assessment Framework
Author: José Fique
Publisher:
Total Pages: 43
Release: 2017
Genre: Banks and banking
ISBN:

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"This report provides a detailed technical description of the updated MacroFinancial Risk Assessment Framework (MFRAF), which replaces the version described in Gauthier, Souissi and Liu (2014) as the Bank of Canada's stress-testing model for banks with a focus on domestic systemically important banks (D-SIBs). This new version incorporates the characteristics of the previous model and also includes fire-sale effects resulting from the regulatory leverage constraints faced by banks, as well as an enhanced treatment of feedback-loop effects between solvency and liquidity risks through both the pricing and costly asset-liquidation channels. These new features improve the model's ability to capture the non-linear effects of risk scenarios on D-SIBs' capital positions and shed light on the importance of additional channels of stress propagation. The model is also subject to a comprehensive sensitivity analysis"--Abstract, p. v.

Risk Topography

Risk Topography
Author: Markus Brunnermeier
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
Total Pages: 286
Release: 2014-10-17
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 022609264X

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The recent financial crisis and the difficulty of using mainstream macroeconomic models to accurately monitor and assess systemic risk have stimulated new analyses of how we measure economic activity and the development of more sophisticated models in which the financial sector plays a greater role. Markus Brunnermeier and Arvind Krishnamurthy have assembled contributions from leading academic researchers, central bankers, and other financial-market experts to explore the possibilities for advancing macroeconomic modeling in order to achieve more accurate economic measurement. Essays in this volume focus on the development of models capable of highlighting the vulnerabilities that leave the economy susceptible to adverse feedback loops and liquidity spirals. While these types of vulnerabilities have often been identified, they have not been consistently measured. In a financial world of increasing complexity and uncertainty, this volume is an invaluable resource for policymakers working to improve current measurement systems and for academics concerned with conceptualizing effective measurement.

2021 Comprehensive Surveillance Review— Background Paper on Systemic Risk and Macroprudential Policy Advice in Article IV Consultations

2021 Comprehensive Surveillance Review— Background Paper on Systemic Risk and Macroprudential Policy Advice in Article IV Consultations
Author: International Monetary
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 33
Release: 2021-05-18
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1513582712

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This paper assesses progress made in deepening and integrating systemic risk analysis and macroprudential policy advice in Article IV consultations following up on the findings of the IEO evaluation. The assessment informs the Comprehensive Surveillance Review and the FSAP Review in their recommendations to strengthen these areas in Article IV consultations. The findings point to notable improvements made since the launch of the macrofinancial mainstreaming initiative, particularly in staff reports for advanced economies and in covering bank and credit-related risks.