Long-Term Trends and Short-Run Dynamics in International Stock Markets

Long-Term Trends and Short-Run Dynamics in International Stock Markets
Author: Sotiris K. Staikouras
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2007
Genre:
ISBN:

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The objective of the present study is to examine the behaviour and interaction of international stock markets. The validity of an earnings based valuation model is assessed using data from seventeen developed countries around the world over the last sixteen years. The estimation process employed involves a two-step Engel-Granger procedure where cointegrating relationships between market indices and their fundamentals are analysed. Cointegration appears mainly in large markets, while the presence of an error correction representation implies the existence of the reversion force towards the fair value obtained from the cointegrating regression. Further, the error correction model, enriched with other variables identified in previous research, seems to capture the short-run dynamics quite well. The coefficients of the variables in both the cointegrating regression and the error correction representation have the correct signs and are consistent in size. Granger causality tests do not particularly support the hypothesis that smaller markets are being influenced by external factors, since causality seems to run both from large to small markets and vice versa.

stock market development and long run growth

stock market development and long run growth
Author: Ross Levine
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Total Pages: 32
Release: 1996
Genre: Aumentoa de la produccion
ISBN: 6101919153

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Anatomy of Global Stock Market Crashes

Anatomy of Global Stock Market Crashes
Author: Gagari Chakrabarti
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 69
Release: 2012-01-05
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 813220462X

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This work is an exploration of the global market dynamics, their intrinsic natures, common trends and dynamic interlinkages during the stock market crises over the last twelve years. The study isolates different phases of crisis and differentiates between any crisis that remains confined to the region and those that take up a global dimension. The latent structure of the global stock market, the inter-regional and intra-regional stock market dynamics around the crises are analyzed to get a complete picture of the structure of the global stock market. The study further probing into the inherent nature of the global stock market in generating crisis finds the global market to be chaotic thus making the system intrinsically unstable or at best to follow knife-edge stability. The findings have significant bearing at theoretical level and on policy decisions.

Hysteresis and Business Cycles

Hysteresis and Business Cycles
Author: Ms.Valerie Cerra
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 50
Release: 2020-05-29
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1513536990

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Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as “hysteresis,” argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and theoretical literature that motivate this paradigm shift. The renewed interest in hysteresis has been sparked by the persistence of the Global Financial Crisis and fears of a slow recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. The findings of the recent literature have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. In recessions, monetary and fiscal policies need to be more active to avoid the permanent scars of a downturn. And in good times, running a high-pressure economy could have permanent positive effects.

Efficiency and Anomalies in Stock Markets

Efficiency and Anomalies in Stock Markets
Author: Wing-Keung Wong
Publisher: Mdpi AG
Total Pages: 232
Release: 2022-02-17
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9783036530802

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The Efficient Market Hypothesis believes that it is impossible for an investor to outperform the market because all available information is already built into stock prices. However, some anomalies could persist in stock markets while some other anomalies could appear, disappear and re-appear again without any warning. A Special Issue on "Efficiency and Anomalies in Stock Markets" will be devoted to advancements in the theoretical development of market efficiency and anomaly in the Stock Market, as well as applications in Stock Market efficiency and anomalies.

Comovements and Correlations in International Stock Markets

Comovements and Correlations in International Stock Markets
Author: Rita L. D'Ecclesia
Publisher:
Total Pages: 24
Release: 2008
Genre:
ISBN:

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The interrelationship between international stock markets is becoming a key issue in international portfolio managment and risk measurement. The dynamics of security returns and their risk characteristics have a crucial role in the financial market's therory. Recent empirical studies have tested market efficiency measuring the degree of integration of international financial markets. These studies have shown that international markets react quickly to news but they are volatile and difficult to predict and with a changing correlation structure of security returns among countries.In this paper we analyze the nature of the relationship between the major international stock markets in Canada, Japan, U.K. and the U.S., using the common trends and common cycles approach. We investigate the presence of co-movements trying to detect a long-term stationary component, the common trend, and a short term stationary cyclical component, among international stock markets. The implications on international portfolio management are alos discussed.

Saving Capitalism from the Capitalists

Saving Capitalism from the Capitalists
Author: Raghuram Rajan
Publisher: Crown Currency
Total Pages: 384
Release: 2003-02-18
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1400049164

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Capitalism’s biggest problem is the executive in pinstripes who extols the virtues of competitive markets with every breath while attempting to extinguish them with every action. Saving Capitalism from the Capitalists is a groundbreaking book that will radically change our understanding of the capitalist system, particularly the role of financial markets. They are the catalyst for inspiring human ingenuity and spreading prosperity. The perception of many, especially in the wake of never-ending corporate scandals, is that financial markets are parasitic institutions that feed off the blood, sweat, and tears of the rest of us. The reality is far different. •Vibrant financial markets threaten the sclerotic corporate establishment and increase corporate mobility and opportunity. They are the reason why entrepreneurship flourishes and companies like The Home Depot and Wal-Mart—mere fly specks a quarter of a century ago—have surged as they have. •They mean personal freedom and economic development for more people. Throughout history, and in most of the world today, the record is one of financial oppression. Elites restrict access to capital and severely limit not only general economic development but that of individuals as well. •Open borders help check the political and economic elites and preserve competitive markets. The greatest danger of the antiglobalization movement is that it will keep the rich rich and the poor poor. Globalization forces countries to do what is necessary to make their economies productive, not what is best for incumbent elites. Open borders limit the ability of domestic politics to close down competition and to retard financial and economic growth. •Markets are especially susceptible in economic downturns when the establishment can exploit public anger to restrict competition and access to capital. While markets must be free to practice “creative destruction,” Rajan and Zingales demonstrate the political and economic importance of a sustainable distribution of wealth and a baseline safety net. Capitalism needs a heart for its own good! There are no iron laws of economics that condemn countries like Bangladesh to perpetual poverty or the United States to perpetual prosperity. The early years of the twentieth century saw vibrant, open financial markets that were creating widespread prosperity. Then came the “Great Reversal” during the Great Depression. It can—and will—happen again, unless there is greater understanding of what markets do, who benefits, and who really wants to either limit them or shut them down. Saving Capitalism from the Capitalists breaks free of traditional ideological arguments of the right and left and points to a new way of understanding and spreading the extraordinary wealth-generating capabilities of capitalism.

Global Trends 2040

Global Trends 2040
Author: National Intelligence Council
Publisher: Cosimo Reports
Total Pages: 158
Release: 2021-03
Genre:
ISBN: 9781646794973

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"The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.

Calculating Stock Market Index Closing Value Using Risk Function Curve Equation, Logistic, B-Spline Curve and Polar Conversion Techniques

Calculating Stock Market Index Closing Value Using Risk Function Curve Equation, Logistic, B-Spline Curve and Polar Conversion Techniques
Author: Sidharta Chatterjee
Publisher:
Total Pages: 44
Release: 2014
Genre:
ISBN:

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This paper discusses about the issues related to some strange behavior patterns in the financial markets that we term redundant sigmoid heterodoxy behavior of the financial markets. We test some basic empirical models employed to study these strange patterns emanating from fear of risk and panic that often belies as a true cause behind market crashes instigating dormant evolution before a full fledged recession and elucidate the interpretation as an outcome of such rigorous testing. In this otter, we developed a new model for measuring risk in order to identify true settings behind market risks by constructing a risk tolerance equation based on risk function curve and hence, to identify investor heterodoxy in the short run. Some novel statistical methods are employed in stock and equity market analysis for determination of Index Closing Values and volatility trends entailing the global markets. We use Risk Function Curves besides logistic functions and B-Spline curves to explain the events running down the line with a window toward Asia-Pacific and broad US markets. The functions deploy logical settings behind stock market trends and uncharacteristic movements correlated to the events having some major impact on the bourses. This paper applies new functions in understanding the mechanism of market failure and volatile behavior of stock markets as well as their movement trends both in the short and long run. The results stratify evidences that relate directly to the dynamics of stock/index movements thus giving an aid to investment managers a general view of the true nature behind volatility of these indices, as well as an aid in determining logical future index values.