Has COVID-19 Induced Labor Market Mismatch? Evidence from the US and the UK

Has COVID-19 Induced Labor Market Mismatch? Evidence from the US and the UK
Author: Carlo Pizzinelli
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 48
Release: 2022-01-19
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1616359021

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This paper studies whether labor market mismatch played an important role for labor market dynamics during the COVID-19 pandemic. We apply the framework of S ̧ahin et al. (2014) to the US and the UK to measure misallocation between job seekers and vacancies across sectors until the third quarter of 2021. We find that mismatch rose sharply at the onset of the pandemic but returned to previous levels within a few quarters. Consequently, the total loss in employment caused by the rise in mismatch was smaller during the COVID-19 pandemic than during the Global Financial Crisis. The results are robust to considering alternative definitions of job seekers and to using a measure of effective job seekers in each sector. Preliminary evidence suggests that increased inactivity among older workers, the so called She-cession (particularly in the US) and shifting worker preferences amid strong labor demand are more prominent explanations for the persistent employment shortfall vis-à-vis pre-COVID levels.

Labor Demand in the Time of COVID-19

Labor Demand in the Time of COVID-19
Author: Lisa B. Kahn
Publisher:
Total Pages: 18
Release: 2020
Genre: COVID-19 (Disease)
ISBN:

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We use job vacancy data collected in real time by Burning Glass Technologies, as well as initial unemployment insurance (UI) claims data to study the impact of COVID-19 on the labor market. Our data allow us to track postings at disaggregated geography and by detailed occupation and industry. We find that job vacancies collapsed in the second half of March and are now 30% lower than their level at the beginning of the year. To a first approximation, this collapse was broad based, hitting all U.S. states, regardless of the intensity of the initial virus spread or timing of stay-at-home policies. UI claims also largely match these patterns. Nearly all industries and occupations saw contraction in postings and spikes in UI claims, regardless of whether they are deemed essential and whether they have work-from-home capability. The only major exceptions are in essential retail and nursing, the "front line” jobs most in-demand during the current crisis.

The Effectiveness of Job-Retention Schemes: COVID-19 Evidence From the German States

The Effectiveness of Job-Retention Schemes: COVID-19 Evidence From the German States
Author: Mr. Shekhar Aiyar
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 37
Release: 2021-10
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1513596179

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Kurzarbeit (KA), Germany’s short-time work program, is widely credited with saving jobs and supporting domestic demand during the COVID-19 recession. We quantify the impact by exploiting state-level variation in exposure to the pandemic shock and KA take-up. We construct a shift-share measure of the labor demand shock and instrument KA take-up using the pre-existing, state-specific share of workers eligible for KA. We find, first, that KA was crucial in mitigating unemployment: absent its expansion the unemployment rate would have increased by an additional 3 pp on average at the trough of the recession. Second, KA also bolstered domestic demand: the contraction in consumption could have been 2 to 3 times larger absent the program. Finally, we provide preliminary evidence on the sensitivity of the medium-run reallocation of resources to the prevalence of jobretention schemes during the Global Financial Crisis.

The Japanese Labor Market During the COVID- 19 Pandemic

The Japanese Labor Market During the COVID- 19 Pandemic
Author: Shinya Kotera
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 39
Release: 2022-05-13
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:

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This paper investigates labor market dynamics in Japan during the COVID-19 pandemic drawing on macro and micro data. The pandemic and related containment measures had a large negative impact on employment, labor force participation, earnings, and labor market mobility, although policy support through furlough schemes partially mitigated the rise in unemployment. Our results indicate that industry effects were a crucial driver of labor market outcomes for different groups of employees — women, younger age groups, nonregular, self-employed, and low-income workers accounted for a disproportional share of employment in the hardest hit industries. We also find empirical evidence for the need to improve childcare and related support, training and upskilling offerings, and teleworking availability, and the role of skill mismatches in reducing labor market mobility and resource reallocation.

China's Labor Market Demand in the Shadow of COVID-19

China's Labor Market Demand in the Shadow of COVID-19
Author: Xiangquan Zeng
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2022
Genre:
ISBN:

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Using data of the largest online job board in China, Zhaopin.com, we examine the impacts of the lockdown policy on the Chinese labor market demand during the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic. The analyses reveal that the lockdown policy, which was implemented in Wuhan on January 23, 2020, reduced the labor market demand drastically. Specifically, the "Number of Companies" that posted weekly job vacancies, "Number of Positions," and "Number of Employees" to be recruited reduced rapidly by 18.5%, 21.9%, and 30.0%, respectively. Furthermore, this impact of the lockdown policy began to reduce, thus allowing the labor demand to rebound four weeks after the outbreak. The heterogeneity analyses reveal that the industries with high physical proximity and those manufacturing non-essential products/services, as well as small-size firms, were greatly impacted by the policy. No statistical difference was observed between the impacts on the cities that implemented specific control measures and those that did not. This study quantifies the dynamic impacts of China's stringent control measures on the country's labor demand during the pandemic. These findings indicate that the effective management of public health crises in conjunction with economic policies is critical to revitalizing labor markets.

Inequality in the Spanish Labor Market During the COVID-19 Crisis

Inequality in the Spanish Labor Market During the COVID-19 Crisis
Author: Ana Lariau
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 27
Release: 2022-01-28
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:

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We analyze the differential impact of the COVID-19 crisis on the Spanish labor market across population groups, as well as its implications for income inequality. The main finding is that young, less educated, and low skilled workers, as well as women are the most affected by the COVID-19 shock in terms of job loss rates. The differential impacts were especially acute at the height of the pandemic in 2020 and remain robust after taking into account the heterogeneity of sector characteristics. Given that these vulnerable groups were positioned in the lower end of the income distribution before the crisis, we hypothesize that income inequality likely has increased due to the pandemic. Policies aiming at reducing inequality in the labor market need to go beyond measures that target the hardest-hit sectors and support the vulnerable groups more directly.

Essays in Labor Market Dynamics and Policy Implications During COVID-19 and Beyond

Essays in Labor Market Dynamics and Policy Implications During COVID-19 and Beyond
Author: Lien Ta
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2023
Genre: COVID-19 Pandemic, 2020-
ISBN:

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This thesis comprises three chapters that delve into various labor market dynamics and the policy implications in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic and its aftermath. In the first chapter (joint with Andre Kurmann and Etienne Lale), we investigate the dynamics of small businesses and employment using real-time data from the private sector throughout the COVID-19 crisis. The pandemic has led to an explosion of research using private-sector data to measure small business activity. Yet important questions remain about sample representativeness and how to identify business openings and closings. We propose new methods to address these issues by exploiting information on business activity from Google, Facebook, and Safegraph. We apply our methods to Homebase data and show that the resulting estimates closely fit official statistics. We then use the data to study whether small businesses have been hit harder by the pandemic and the extent to which the Paycheck Protection Program helped mitigate these effects. The second chapter (joint with Andreas Hornstein, Marios Karabarbounis, Andre Kurmann, Etienne Lale) focus on the effects of pandemic unemployment insurance (UI) benefits. UI acts as both a disincentive for labor supply and as a stimulus for labor demand. In equilibrium, the two effects combine, which may explain why several studies have found only small negative effects of the generous UI expansions during the pandemic on job finding rates and employment. In this paper we propose a new research design to estimate independently the disincentive effects of pandemic unemployment benefits. Using high-frequency worker-firm matched data from Homebase, we document that employment of low-wage businesses recovered more slowly from the initial pandemic shock than neighboring high-wage businesses, and that this recovery gap is significantly related to the relative generosity of UI benefits. By comparing neighboring businesses that are largely sharing the benefits of the local UI stimulus, our research design identifies more closely the disincentive effects of pandemic UI benefits. We use an equilibrium model of labor search with heterogeneity in firms and workers to translate the reduced-form estimate of the recovery gap into an unemployment duration elasticity and an aggregate employment loss. Our model, which captures well the recovery gap between low- and high-wage businesses, implies relatively low duration elasticities. Yet, the sheer size and multitude of the pandemic programs implies that the disincentive effects arising from the pandemic UI benefits are substantial and amount to 5 percent of normal employment. The third chapter studies work-from-home (WFH) work mode's implications on labor market. The COVID-19 pandemic has triggered a widespread adoption of WFH practices and accelerated the advancement of remote work technologies. Surprisingly, even after the pandemic has subsided, a substantial shift towards WFH remains evident among workers. However, the accessibility to WFH is not uniform across all types of workers. Notably, high-tech industries, characterized by a predominantly high-skilled workforce, exhibit a higher prevalence of WFH. This raises concerns about the effects of WFH on workers employed in industries where remote work is unfeasible. In this paper, I develop a spatial equilibrium model that incorporates WFH to examine the implications on workers' mobility, local market outcomes, and overall welfare. I find 3 key insights: (1) there is a productivity threshold for WFH adoption, (2) there is a one-way dependence of low-skilled workers on high-skilled workers' mobility, and (3) if workers are fully mobile, both types of workers benefit from the introduction of WFH.

Labor Demand

Labor Demand
Author: Daniel S. Hamermesh
Publisher: Princeton University Press
Total Pages: 466
Release: 1996-01-28
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9780691025872

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In this book Daniel Hamermesh provides the first comprehensive picture of the disparate field of labor demand. The author reviews both the static and dynamic theories of labor demand, and provides evaluative summaries of the available empirical research in these two subject areas. Moreover, he uses both theory and evidence to establish a generalized framework for analyzing the impact of policies such as minimum wages, payroll taxes, job- security measures, unemployment insurance, and others. Covering every aspect of labor demand, this book uses material from a wide range of countries.

Temporary Unemployment and Labor Market Dynamics During the COVID-19 Recession

Temporary Unemployment and Labor Market Dynamics During the COVID-19 Recession
Author: Jessica Gallant
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2020
Genre:
ISBN:

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This paper develops a search-and-matching model that incorporates temporary unemployment and applies the model to study the labor market dynamics of the COVID-19 recession in the US. We calibrate the model using panel data from the Current Population Survey for 2001-2019, and we find that the model-based job finding rates match observed job finding rates during the entire sample period and out-of-sample up through July 2020. We also find that the Beveridge curve is well-behaved and displays little change in market tightness in 2020 once we use the calibrated model to adjust for changes in the composition of the unemployed. We then use the model to project the path of unemployment over the next 18 months. Under a range of assumptions about job losses and labor demand, our model predicts a more rapid recovery compared to a model that does not distinguish between temporary and permanent unemployment and compared to professional and academic forecasts. We find that in order to rationalize the professional forecasts of the unemployment rate, some combination of the vacancy rate, job separation rate, and recall rate of workers on temporary layoff must deteriorate substantially from current levels in the next several months.

European Labor Markets and the COVID-19 Pandemic: Fallout and the Path Ahead

European Labor Markets and the COVID-19 Pandemic: Fallout and the Path Ahead
Author: Mr. Sakai Ando
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 96
Release: 2022-03-03
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:

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In 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic caused by far the largest shock to European economies since World War II. Yet, astonishingly, the EU unemployment rate had already declined to its pre-crisis level by 2021Q3, and in some countries the labor force participation rate is at a record high. This paper documents that the widespread use of job retention schemes has played an essential role in mitigating the pandemic’s impact on labor markets and thereby facilitating the restart of European economies after the initial lockdowns.