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| Author | : Nikolaos Antonakakis |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 30 |
| Release | : 2011 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
| Author | : Marcus Kappler |
| Publisher | : Springer Science & Business Media |
| Total Pages | : 197 |
| Release | : 2012-07-30 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 3790828556 |
This book offers the reader a state-of-the-art overview on theory and empirics of business cycle synchronisation, structural reform and economic integration. Focusing on the ongoing integration process in the euro area and the EU, it analyses the integration process that has taken place since the 1980s and which is marked by the advent of the euro and the substantial enlargement that resulted from the accession of 12 new Member States in East and Southern Europe.
| Author | : Kwan-ho Sin |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 32 |
| Release | : 2003 |
| Genre | : Business cycles |
| ISBN | : |
| Author | : Eric Monnet |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 55 |
| Release | : 2016-03-08 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1513564897 |
This paper assesses the strength of business cycle synchronization between 1950 and 2014 in a sample of 21 countries using a new quarterly dataset based on IMF archival data. Contrary to the common wisdom, we find that the globalization period is not associated with more output synchronization at the global level. The world business cycle was as strong during Bretton Woods (1950-1971) than during the Globalization period (1984-2006). Although globalization did not affect the average level of co-movement, trade and financial integration strongly affect the way countries co-move with the rest of the world. We find that financial integration de-synchronizes national outputs from the world cycle, although the magnitude of this effect depends crucially on the type of shocks hitting the world economy. This de-synchronizing effect has offset the synchronizing impact of other forces, such as increased trade integration.
| Author | : Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung (Mannheim) |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 156 |
| Release | : 2008 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
"This study analyses business cycle synchronisation in the euro area and beyond from different angles. First, a comprehensive survey of the relevant literature is provided in chapter 2. The em-pirical analysis starts in chapter 3 with the determination of output gaps as the most important indi-cator of the cyclical stance of the economies. Different methods are applied to account for the un-certainty surrounding the estimation of this unobserved variable. Then, cross-country correlations of the output gaps and their evolution over time are determined. A cluster analysis is undertaken in order to identify countries sharing similar business cycle characteristics. Time-varying patterns in euro area business cycle synchronisation may be a reflection of global phenomena, rather than being genuine to the euro area. Therefore, the findings for the euro area are put into a global per-spective. In particular, business cycle co-movement is analysed also for the EU countries outside the euro area, the OECD countries in general, and for the states within the US as well as within the group of the G7 countries."--p. iii.
| Author | : Piotr Misztal |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 0 |
| Release | : 2013 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
The analysis of business cycle synchronization levels has become a key point in the discussion of the processes of international economic integration. Economists show a particular interest in analyzing the frequency of processes of business cycle convergence and divergence (decoupling) in the European Union, especially in the Euro Zone. One of the factors determining business cycle convergence in economies is the intensity and structure of international trade. The aim of this paper is to analyze the influence exerted by international trade over the synchronization of business cycles in Poland, the European Union and the Euro Zone from 1995 to 2011. The analytical methods employed here encompass a review of the literature on macroeconomics and international finance, as well as econometric models (such as the Vector Autoregression Model). The results of empirical research indicate that an increase in trade turnover does not necessarily lead to greater business cycle synchronization in the economies under analysis. In fact, the impact of an increase in countries' turnover on the synchronization of their business cycles depends predominantly on the structure of trade turnover and not solely on the intensity of trade.
| Author | : Krzysztof Beck |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : |
| Release | : 2014 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
Turmoil in euro area once more forces EU authorities to rethink future of further monetary integration. One of the most commonly used criterions for successful monetary in contemporary research is business cycle synchronization (BCS). Though BCS has been vastly described at country level, not as much attention has been put on the degree of BSC at regional level. Topic is important for 2 main reasons. The first is that determining degree of BCS at regional level can help in assessment of monetary policy effectiveness at country level, as well as giving point of reference for evaluation of perspective costs of participation in monetary union. The second is that there is theoretical dispute within the optimum currency areas literature between 'European Commission' and "Krugman" view that can be resolve a great deal trough regional analysis. In order to assess BCS in EU Hodrick-Prescott, as well as Christiano and Fitzgerald filter to time series of real GDP for 24 countries, 82 NUTS 1, 242 NUTS 2 and 1264 NUTS 3 regions over the period of 1998-2010. Data was later used to create bilateral measures of BSC, which gave 276 observations on country level, 3321 on NUTS 1, 29161 on NUTS 2 and 798216 on NUTS 3 level. Results of the analysis support "European Commission" view and show very high degree of BSC within EU countries. Country level analysis also reveals that within the EU there exist group of countries that could form effectively working monetary union based on BCS criterion.
| Author | : Stéphane Dées |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : |
| Release | : 2011 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
| Author | : Dimitrios Asteriou |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 0 |
| Release | : 2015 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
The aim of this paper is to investigate the determinants of business cycle (BC) synchronization across 21 (old and new) countries of the enlarged European Union (EU). It utilizes international data to evaluate the linkages among bilateral trade in goods, bilateral foreign direct investment (FDI) flows and BC co-movements. The paper contributes to the current literature by examining the relationship using the latest available data (sample range: 1998-2011), and thus taking into account the European sovereign debt crisis period. It also examines the role of FDI, which though increasingly important in the flows of international production factors, is currently neglected by the literature. Preliminary results show that FDI has no direct effect on BC synchronization while international trade helps to synchronize BCs but only before the recent financial crisis (pre-2008) and only for the traditional EU countries.
| Author | : Filip Keereman |
| Publisher | : Springer Science & Business Media |
| Total Pages | : 275 |
| Release | : 2010-07-23 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 3642125166 |
The Fifth Enlargement that took place in 2004 and 2007 was a milestone in the history of the European Union. Not only because of the large number of acceding countries but also because of their recent political and economic experience. Ten of them had undergone a profound transition from a totalitarian regime to democracy, and from a centrally planned economy to a market-based system. Most of them had income levels signi?cantly below those of the then EU-15. Now, 6 years later, we can clearly see that the process of European integration, both before and after 2004, was what enabled Europe to overcome the gaps between various parts of the continent. The enlargement made Europe a better and wealthier place and streng- ened its position in the world. Integration into the European Union has always been one of the strongest incentives for reform in the new Member States. Particularly important in my view have been the development of ?nancial markets through foreign direct investment and capital in?ows, and the opening of labour markets – which was a two-way phenomenon, with markets being opened up in acceding as well as the incumbent Member States. The Fifth Enlargement was thus an exercise of glo- lisation in miniature, a practice run for the Union to tackle the challenges of the ever smaller world.
