Gauging Risks for Deflation

Gauging Risks for Deflation
Author: Mr.Jörg Decressin
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 33
Release: 2009-01-27
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1589067290

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This paper discusses deflation risks and policy options. The paper highlights that slumping collateral values have exacerbated the credit crunch, and monetary policy has lost effectiveness in stabilizing output. A model-based analysis for the G3 economies (United States, euro area, and Japan) also suggests that, on the assumption that the financial distress is gradually resolved, the most likely outcome is that the global economy will stay clear of sustained deflation. However, if financial sector problems are not remedied or further shocks add to current stresses, there is a significant probability of more negative deflationary outcomes, with a deeper and more prolonged recession. The chapter underscores the crucial role of financial sector policies in remedying deflationary pressures directly and indirectly, by enhancing the effectiveness of monetary and fiscal policies. Monetary policy can help in some areas; however, supportive fiscal policies are likely to be needed to prevent a deflationary episode becoming entrenched. Monetary policy measures include operating in a broad range of financial markets to relieve credit rationing, and to lower risk spreads and term premiums. Finally, to reinforce long-run inflation expectations, central bank communications should emphasize the commitment to return inflation to objectives with all due speed.

Gauging Risks for Deflation

Gauging Risks for Deflation
Author: Jörg Decressin
Publisher:
Total Pages: 33
Release: 2009
Genre: Deflation (Finance)
ISBN:

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The worldwide financial crisis, falling asset values, and an associated collapse in business and consumer confidence, have once again raised the specter of deflation. Governments and central banks have responded to the problems of financial institutions by introducing measures to deal with both liquidity and solvency problems. At the same time, central banks have cut their policy rates to counter the increased credit risk premiums and many governments are implementing fiscal stimulus to support aggregate demand.

Effects of Fiscal Stimulus in Structural Models

Effects of Fiscal Stimulus in Structural Models
Author: Mr.Michael Kumhof
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 123
Release: 2010-03-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 145198216X

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The paper assesses, using seven structural models used heavily by policymaking institutions, the effectiveness of temporary fiscal stimulus. Models can, more easily than empirical studies, account for differences between fiscal instruments, for differences between structural characteristics of the economy, and for monetary-fiscal policy interactions. Findings are: (i) There is substantial agreement across models on the sizes of fiscal multipliers. (ii) The sizes of spending and targeted transfers multipliers are large. (iii) Fiscal policy is most effective if it has some persistence and if monetary policy accommodates it. (iv) The perception of permanent fiscal stimulus leads to significantly lower initial multipliers.

Constitutional Law and the EU Balanced Budget Principle

Constitutional Law and the EU Balanced Budget Principle
Author: Elena-Simina Tănăsescu
Publisher: Routledge
Total Pages: 233
Release: 2021-11-29
Genre: Law
ISBN: 1351723510

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Exploring the balanced budget rule as an economic standard and as a legal principle, this book explains the context and content of the balanced budget rule and presents a critical appraisal of its impact on legal systems, political institutions and social values, and particularly an evaluation of its constitutionalization in the European and national legal systems. Examining a range of perspectives on the balanced budget rule as a legal principle, a series of chapters investigate the feasibility and effectiveness of the balanced budget rule. The book considers the impact this may have on the separation of powers within the state, on democratic decision-making, on the European social model and on the protection of fundamental social rights within the European Union. It suggests that this impact goes beyond the ethical issue of the public debt considered as a burden placed on future generations, and beyond injunctions imposed by international financial institutions on national public finances. The transfiguration of fiscal discipline from an economic requirement into a legal rule demanding a balanced budget embodies a challenge to the political nature of the budgetary process while creating the flexibility needed in order to further fiscal federalism within the European Union. This book argues that the balanced budget rule is nothing more than it has always been: an instrument for devising public policies in a rational manner, a tool for conceiving qualitative choices regarding the well-being of citizens.

Evaluation and Turbulent Times

Evaluation and Turbulent Times
Author: Jan-Eric Furubo
Publisher: Transaction Publishers
Total Pages: 284
Release: 2013
Genre: Political Science
ISBN: 1412851742

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Now more than ever, policy evaluation is an important component in addressing the world's economic crisis. Before it can do so, the discipline must adapt to changing economic and political environments. The contributors address a basic question: What impact do crises have on evaluation and how can evaluation contribute in times of turbulence? Examining the state of evaluation today, the volume's editors cover a broad range of topics, including post-hoc evaluation; shifting economic paradigms; the World Bank Group's response to the global economic crisis; challenges in evaluating financial literacy; evaluating counter-terrorism programs; evaluation in the context of humanitarian crises; and why civil society organizations in sub-Saharan Africa matter in evaluating poverty interventions. The contributors explore the role of evaluation in the search for solutions to global instability. They recognize, however, that in order to address unprecedented crises, evaluation itself needs to be evaluated and updated as part of the process of change and reform. This volume is the latest in Transaction's well-respected Comparative Policy Evaluation series.

The IMF and the Politics of Austerity in the Wake of the Global Financial Crisis

The IMF and the Politics of Austerity in the Wake of the Global Financial Crisis
Author: Ben Clift
Publisher: Oxford University Press
Total Pages: 272
Release: 2018-02-09
Genre: Political Science
ISBN: 0192542478

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This book explores the IMF's role within the politics of austerity by providing a path-breaking comprehensive analysis of how the IMF approach to fiscal policy has evolved since 2008, and how the IMF worked to alter advanced economy policy responses to the global financial crisis (GFC) and the Eurozone crisis. It updates and refines our understanding of how the IMF seeks to wield ideational power by analysing the Fund's post-crash their ability to influence what constitutes legitimate knowledge, and their ability fix meanings attached to economic policies within the social process of constructing economic orthodoxy.This book is interested in the politics of economic ideas, focused on the assumptive foundations of different approaches to economic policy, and how the interpretive framework through which authoritative voices evaluate economic policy is an important site of power in world politics. After establishing the internal conditions of possibility for new fiscal policy thinking to emerge and prevail, detailed case studies of IMF interactions with the UK and French governments during the Great Recession drill down into how Fund seeks to shape the policy possibilities of advanced economy policy-makers and account for the scope and limits of Fund influence. The Fund's reputation as a technocratic, scientific source of economic policy wisdom is important to for its intellectual authority. Yet, as this book demonstrates, the Fund makes normatively driven interventions in ideologically charged economic policy debates. The analysis reveals the malleability of conventional wisdoms about economic policy, and the processes of their social construction.

Financial Crises

Financial Crises
Author: Mr.Stijn Claessens
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 754
Release: 2014-02-19
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1484355261

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The lingering effects of the economic crisis are still visible—this shows a clear need to improve our understanding of financial crises. This book surveys a wide range of crises, including banking, balance of payments, and sovereign debt crises. It begins with an overview of the various types of crises and introduces a comprehensive database of crises. Broad lessons on crisis prevention and management, as well as the short-term economic effects of crises, recessions, and recoveries, are discussed.

World Economic Outlook, April 2013

World Economic Outlook, April 2013
Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 204
Release: 2013-04-16
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1475560583

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Global economic prospects have improved again, but the bumpy recovery and skewed macroeconomic policy mix in advanced economies are complicating policymaking in emerging market economies. Chapter 3 examines the prospects for inflation, particularly because inflation was remarkably stable in the wake of the Great Recession and, in fact, has become less responsive to cyclical conditions. Chapter 4 examines whether today’s fast-growing, dynamic low-income countries are likely to maintain their momentum and avoid the reversals that afflicted many such countries in the past.

Inflation Expectations

Inflation Expectations
Author: Peter J. N. Sinclair
Publisher: Routledge
Total Pages: 402
Release: 2009-12-16
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1135179778

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Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.

World Economic Outlook, April 2012

World Economic Outlook, April 2012
Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 299
Release: 2012-04-17
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1475507038

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The April 2012 issue of the World Economic Outlook assesses the prospects for the global economy, which has gradually strengthened after a major setback during 2011. The threat of a sharp global slowdown eased with improved activity in the United States and better policies in the euro area. Weak recovery will likely resume in the major advanced economies, and activity will remain relatively solid in most emerging and developing economies. However, recent improvements are very fragile. Policymakers must calibrate policies to support growth in the near term and must implement fundamental changes to achieve healthy growth in the medium term. Chapter 3 examines how policies directed at real estate markets can accelerate the improvement of household balance sheets and thus support otherwise anemic consumption. Chapter 4 examines how swings in commodity prices affect commodity-exporting economies, many of which have experienced a decade of good growth. With commodity prices unlikely to continue growing at the recent elevated pace, however, these economies may have to adapt their fiscal and other policies to lower potential output growth in the future.