Flawed Assumptions, Models and Decision Making

Flawed Assumptions, Models and Decision Making
Author:
Publisher:
Total Pages: 7
Release: 1999
Genre:
ISBN:

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The history of high consequence accidents is rich with events wherein the actions, or inaction, of humans was critical to the sequence of events preceding the accident. Moreover, it has been reported that human error may contribute to 80% of accidents, if not more (dougherty and Fragola, 1988). Within the safety community, this reality is widely recognized and there is a substantially greater awareness of the human contribution to system safety today than has ever existed in the past. Despite these facts, and some measurable reduction in accident rates, when accidents do occur, there is a common lament. No matter how hard we try, we continue to have accidents. Accompanying this lament, there is often bewilderment expressed in statements such as, ''There's no explanation for why he/she did what they did''. It is believed that these statements are a symptom of inadequacies in how they think about humans and their role within technological systems. In particular, while there has never been a greater awareness of human factors, conceptual models of human involvement in engineered systems are often incomplete and in some cases, inaccurate.

Standard Deviations

Standard Deviations
Author: Gary Smith
Publisher: Abrams
Total Pages: 192
Release: 2014-07-31
Genre: Social Science
ISBN: 1468310682

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How statistical data is used, misused, and abused every day to fool us: “A very entertaining book about a very serious problem.” —Robert J. Shiller, winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics and author of Irrational Exuberance Did you know that baseball players whose names begin with “D” are more likely to die young? That Asian Americans are most susceptible to heart attacks on the fourth day of the month? That drinking a full pot of coffee every morning adds years to your life, but one cup a day increases your pancreatic cancer risk? These “facts” have been argued with a straight face by credentialed researchers and backed up with reams of data and convincing statistics. As Nobel Prize–winning economist Ronald Coase cynically observed, “If you torture data long enough, it will confess.” Lying with statistics is a time-honored con. In Standard Deviations, economics professor Gary Smith walks us through the various tricks and traps that people use to back up their own crackpot theories. Sometimes, the unscrupulous deliberately try to mislead us. Other times, the well-intentioned are blissfully unaware of the mischief they are committing. Today, data is so plentiful that researchers spend precious little time distinguishing between good, meaningful indicators and total rubbish. Not only do others use data to fool us, we fool ourselves. Drawing on breakthrough research in behavioral economics and using clear examples, Standard Deviations demystifies the science behind statistics and makes it easy to spot the fraud all around us. “An entertaining primer . . . packed with figures, tables, graphs and ludicrous examples from people who know better (academics, scientists) and those who don’t (political candidates, advertisers).” —Kirkus Reviews (starred review)

Completing the Forecast

Completing the Forecast
Author: National Research Council
Publisher: National Academies Press
Total Pages: 124
Release: 2006-10-09
Genre: Science
ISBN: 0309180538

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Uncertainty is a fundamental characteristic of weather, seasonal climate, and hydrological prediction, and no forecast is complete without a description of its uncertainty. Effective communication of uncertainty helps people better understand the likelihood of a particular event and improves their ability to make decisions based on the forecast. Nonetheless, for decades, users of these forecasts have been conditioned to receive incomplete information about uncertainty. They have become used to single-valued (deterministic) forecasts (e.g., "the high temperature will be 70 degrees Farenheit 9 days from now") and applied their own experience in determining how much confidence to place in the forecast. Most forecast products from the public and private sectors, including those from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration's National Weather Service, continue this deterministic legacy. Fortunately, the National Weather Service and others in the prediction community have recognized the need to view uncertainty as a fundamental part of forecasts. By partnering with other segments of the community to understand user needs, generate relevant and rich informational products, and utilize effective communication vehicles, the National Weather Service can take a leading role in the transition to widespread, effective incorporation of uncertainty information into predictions. "Completing the Forecast" makes recommendations to the National Weather Service and the broader prediction community on how to make this transition.

Decision Making Structures

Decision Making Structures
Author: Mario S. Catalani
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 165
Release: 2012-12-06
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 3642501389

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This book is the cuhnination of many years' research inspired by the pioneering and seminal works of Sah and Stiglitz. We gratefully acknowledge the influence of these two authors, whose ideas and contributions have brought us together on this collabo ration, despite our divergent scientific backgrounds (while Catalani is interested in quantitative methods, Clerico is a non-quantitative economist) . We thank the Editor of the Rivista Internazionale di Scienze Economiche e Commerciali for permission to use slightly modified versions of papers published in that Review (they are the content of Chapters I and III of Part I, and of Chapter I of Part II). We heartily thank Ms. Laura McLean for carefully revising our English. The publication of this book has been made possible by a grant from the Department of Economics, University of Turin, Italy. Torino, July 1995 Mario S. Catalani Giuseppe F. CIeri co CONTENTS Introduction 1 PART I Some models of decision making structures I. How and when unanimity is a superior decision rule 15 II. Majority rules and efficiency of the decision process 31 III. Team cooperation vs. independent assessment 41 IV. Leadership and dependence 59 V. The decision making process of political organizations 75 PART II Pyramid decision structures I. Pyramidal structures: a preliminary note 91 II. Other properties of pyramids 103 III. Pyramids and dependence 117 IV. Organization, loyalty, and efficiency 133 Conclusions 151 References 163 Mario S.

Selling with Integrity

Selling with Integrity
Author: Sharon Drew Morgen
Publisher: Berrett-Koehler Publishers
Total Pages: 278
Release: 1997-03
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9781576750179

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Filled with in-depth examples of Buying Facilitation in action, Selling with Integrity details a practical questioning and listening process which facilitates buyers in understanding their complex buying environments.

The Ultimate Book of Business Thinking

The Ultimate Book of Business Thinking
Author: Des Dearlove
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Total Pages: 324
Release: 2002-12-30
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1841124400

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Thousands of brilliant business ideas are launched into the world of work every day. But how can business leaders know which ideas are the ones that will really drive the business full steam ahead? From scientific management to knowledge management and from the agile organization to the virtual organization, Des Dearlove describes each idea, shows how it has been applied practically and gives alternative interpretations and definitions from the sceptics.

The 75 Greatest Management Decisions Ever Made

The 75 Greatest Management Decisions Ever Made
Author: Stuart Crainer
Publisher: AMACOM
Total Pages: 272
Release: 1999-10-22
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 081442368X

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The 75 Greatest Management Decisions Ever Made is a pithy compendium that celebrates pinnacles of decision-making that have shaped management through the ages - and left their indelible impressions on business and society.

Decision Making Under Uncertainty

Decision Making Under Uncertainty
Author: Charles A. Holloway
Publisher: Prentice Hall
Total Pages: 560
Release: 1979
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:

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Introduction and basic concepts; Models and probability; Choices and preferences; Preference assessment procedures; Behavioral assumptions and limitations of decision analysis; Risk sharing and incentives; Choices with multiple attributes.

Think Again

Think Again
Author: Sydney Finkelstein
Publisher: Harvard Business Press
Total Pages: 256
Release: 2009-02-03
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1422133370

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Why do smart and experienced leaders make flawed, even catastrophic, decisions? Why do people keep believing they have made the right choice, even with the disastrous result staring them in the face? And how can you be sure you're making the right decision--without the benefit of hindsight? Sydney Finkelstein, Jo Whitehead, and Andrew Campbell show how the usually beneficial processes of the human mind can become traps when we face big decisions. The authors show how the shortcuts our brains have learned to take over millennia of evolution can derail our decision making. Think Again offers a powerful model for making better decisions, describing the key red flags to watch for and detailing the decision-making safeguards we need. Using examples from business, politics, and history, Think Again deconstructs bad decisions, as they unfolded in real time, to show how you can avoid the same fate.

The Next Smart Step

The Next Smart Step
Author: Kelly Watson
Publisher: Charlesbridge Publishing
Total Pages: 205
Release: 2020-09-15
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1632892278

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“A candid, readable, and useful book about how we can get past talking about gender bias and actually start doing something about it.” —Adam Grant, New York Times bestselling author of ORIGINALS and GIVE AND TAKE, and host of the TED podcast WorkLife Empowering women empowers everyone. Women with confidence, equal pay, and leadership opportunity enrich workplace culture and help the whole organization. The first step is understanding that gender balance is not a zero-sum game. The Next Smart Step is a clear, assured guide to understanding the challenge of gender imbalance, implementing solutions, and equipping readers with the tools we all need to ensure change that is positive and enduring. It is about all of us becoming leaders. The Next Smart Step builds on a positive reality, helping readers recognize and manage unconscious biases, see diversity as a 21st-century skill, and work towards equal partnerships in the workplace. It outlines strategies for flexibility, communication, openness, and mutual respect. Gender equity is not only the right thing to do—it makes life better, workplace culture more diverse, opportunity more widely available, and organizations more successful. The Next Smart Step will help everyone from new hires to corporate executives learn the personal leadership this important issue demands.