Fiscal Rules and Fiscal Councils: Recent Trends and Performance During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Fiscal Rules and Fiscal Councils: Recent Trends and Performance During the COVID-19 Pandemic
Author: Mr. Hamid R Davoodi
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 41
Release: 2022-01-27
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:

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Adoption of fiscal rules and fiscal councils continued to increase globally over the last decades based on two new global datasets. During the pandemic, fiscal frameworks were put to test. The widespread use of escape clauses was one of the novelties in this crisis, which helped provide policy room to respond to the health crisis. But the unprecedented fiscal actions have led to large and widespread deviations from deficit and debt limits. The evidence shows that fiscal rules, in general, have been flexible during crises but have not prevented a large and persistent buildup of debt over time. Experience shows that deviations from debt limits are very difficult to reverse. The paper also presents evidence on the benefits of a good track record in abiding by the rules. All these highlight the difficult policy choices ahead and need to further improve rules-based fiscal frameworks.

Fiscal Councils

Fiscal Councils
Author: Mr.Roel M. W. J. Beetsma
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 26
Release: 2016-04-08
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1484322908

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The paper discusses the effectiveness of independent fiscal institutions—or fiscal councils—in taming the deficit bias that emerged in the 1970s. After a review of the main theoretical arguments and recent trends about fiscal councils, we develop a stylized model showing how a fiscal council can effectively mitigate the deficit bias even though it has no direct lever on the conduct of fiscal policy. We show that the capacity of the fiscal council to improve the public’s understanding of the quality of fiscal policy contributes to better align voters and policymakers’ incentives and to tame the deficit bias affecting well-intended governments. After mapping the model’s key features into a broad set of criteria likely to contribute to the effectiveness of a fiscal council, we use the 2014 vintage of the IMF dataset on independent fiscal institutions to assess whether existing institutions have been built to work.

Fiscal Rules in Response to the Crisis

Fiscal Rules in Response to the Crisis
Author: Ms.Andrea Schaechter
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 49
Release: 2012-07-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1475505353

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Strengthening fiscal frameworks, in particular fiscal rules, has emerged as a key response to the fiscal legacy of the crisis. This paper takes stock of fiscal rules in use around the world, compiles a dataset - covering national and supranational fiscal rules, in 81 countries from 1985 to end-March 2012 - and presents details about the rules’ key design elements, particularly in support of enforcement. This information is summarized in a set of fiscal rules indices. Three key findings emerge: (i) many new fiscal rules have been adopted and existing ones strengthened in response to the crisis; (ii) the number of fiscal rules and the comprehensiveness of the design features in emerging economies has caught up to those in advanced economies; and (iii) the "next-generation" fiscal rules are increasingly complex as they combine the objectives of sustainability and with the need for flexibility in response to shocks, thereby creating new challenges for implementation, communication, and monitoring.

The Return to Fiscal Rules

The Return to Fiscal Rules
Author: Francesca Caselli
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 37
Release: 2022-10-11
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:

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Governments face difficult policy trade-offs with record debt levels, tightening monetary policies, and urgent demands, including food and energy crises, the climate agenda, and population aging. Governments need to communicate fiscal plans to reduce debt sustainability risks and promote consistent macroeconomic policies. Many envisage a return to fiscal rules that had been suspended during the pandemic to strengthen credibility. This situation offers an opportunity to rethink fiscal rules and determine how governments can make fiscal policy more agile, including in responding to crises, without undermining fiscal sustainability. A risk-based medium-term fiscal framework that combines standards, rules, and strengthened institutions would strike a better balance between flexibility and credibility.

Do Fiscal Councils Impact Fiscal Performance?

Do Fiscal Councils Impact Fiscal Performance?
Author: Giovanni Coletta
Publisher:
Total Pages: 35
Release: 2015
Genre:
ISBN:

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The lack of budget transparency and projections accuracy have been among the determinants of the last four decades high deficit and debt, as the recent 2008-2009 economic crisis has highlighted. In order to improve fiscal policy process and budget transparency, the European Union (EU) stated more stringent fiscal rules monitored by Independent Fiscal Bodies, that have the capacity to “tie the hands” of policymakers tempted by deviations from socially optimal choices according to the academic circles.The present paper aims at empirically verifying if Fiscal Councils (FCs) in Europe (as a complement or substitute for the Fiscal Rules - FRs) have an impact on Governments' fiscal decisions and if this impact exists and is positive which feature of their functioning is relevant for their effectiveness.The data elaborated with a panel regression model are the actual and foreseen (one year ahead) public finance and economic data of eleven European Countries1. The yearly planned change of the Cyclically Adjusted Budget Balance (CAB) 2 is interpreted as the discretionary fiscal policy and data about FCs and FRs are those of the European Commission (EC) Database on Fiscal Governance (data on fiscal institutions of the European database were opportunely adjusted, controlled and rebuilt for the missing years to construct the Fiscal Council Index - FCI).This work (with the caveats related to the used data) provides empirical support for the hypothesis of a positive impact of FCs on fiscal performance; leading to the conclusion that if there are clear and strong FRs, the presence of fiscal institutions with solid basis in national institutional framework (strong legal basis) could positively affect political decisions.

Fiscal Rules in Times of Crisis

Fiscal Rules in Times of Crisis
Author: Mahama Samir Bandaogo
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2020
Genre:
ISBN:

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As governments around the world struggle to piece together the most effective fiscal response to counter the economic and social impact of the COVID-19 outbreak, some are facing constraints imposed by fiscal rules enacted in the past to ensure fiscal discipline. The outbreak has revealedthe weaknesses and inappropriateness of many existing fiscal rules, and authorities should take the opportunity to strengthen their fiscal rules by adopting features that make them more flexible, operational, and enforceable. Research shows that the de facto strength and credibility of the fiscal rule is what matters for fiscal discipline, not the mere de jure existence of one. As important as it is that fiscal rules include contingencies to accommodate large and effective fiscal responses to severe and unprecedented crises, it is also as important that fiscal rules provide clear guidance for building up savings in times of positive shocks.

Fiscal Politics

Fiscal Politics
Author: Vitor Gaspar
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 548
Release: 2017-04-07
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1475547900

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Two main themes of the book are that (1) politics can distort optimal fiscal policy through elections and through political fragmentation, and (2) rules and institutions can attenuate the negative effects of this dynamic. The book has three parts: part 1 (9 chapters) outlines the problems; part 2 (6 chapters) outlines how institutions and fiscal rules can offer solutions; and part 3 (4 chapters) discusses how multilevel governance frameworks can help.

Do Fiscal Rules Cause Better Fiscal Balances? A New Instrumental Variable Strategy

Do Fiscal Rules Cause Better Fiscal Balances? A New Instrumental Variable Strategy
Author: Francesca G Caselli
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 27
Release: 2019-03-05
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1498300863

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This paper estimates the causal effect of fiscal rules on fiscal balances in a panel of 142 countries over the period 1985-2015. Our instrumental variable strategy exploits the geographical diffusion of fiscal rules across countries. The intuition is that reforms in neighboring countries may affect the adoption of domestic reforms through peer pressure and imitational effects. We find that fiscal rules correlate with lower deficits, but the positive link disappears when endogeneity is correctly addressed. However, when considering an index of fiscal rules’ design, we show that well-designed rules have a statistically significant impact on fiscal balances. We conduct several robustness tests and show that our results are not affected by weak instrument problems.

Author:
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 60
Release:
Genre:
ISBN:

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Global Trends 2040

Global Trends 2040
Author: National Intelligence Council
Publisher: Cosimo Reports
Total Pages: 158
Release: 2021-03
Genre:
ISBN: 9781646794973

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"The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.