Essays on Trading in Financial Markets

Essays on Trading in Financial Markets
Author: Alessia Testa
Publisher:
Total Pages: 270
Release: 2012
Genre: Closed-end funds
ISBN:

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The first part of the thesis consists of three chapters focusing on herd behavior in financial markets. Chapter one reviews the herding literature while chapter two studies a market where informed and noise traders show up sequentially and anonymously in front of a competitive and risk neutral market maker. Traders can in some cases observe whether some of their predecessors were informed, although they cannot observe their private in- formation. This creates an informational asymmetry between the traders and the market maker which generates herd behavior. I find that herd and contrarian behavior is gener- ated more easily in better-informed markets than in poorly informed ones. Informational cascades can never occur and the market learns in the limit. Moreover, I illustrate how a market dominated by herding features a price that is more informative of the asset value than the price of a market where traders always follow their signal. I also discuss how contrarianism has the exact opposite effect by decreasing price informativeness. In chap- ter two I consider the case of multiple trading rooms, where traders can in some cases observe whether some of the predecessors coming from the same room were informed. I first analyze herding conditions for the case of disconnected rooms where agents trading during the same time exhibit information correlation, and find that herding is more likely to occur in a market with positive correlation than in a market without correlation. I then link rooms by means of a network structure which dictates which rooms' predecessors one can observe. I check whether it is possible for a trader to herd with traders outside his own neighborhood instead of with his direct neighbors. I find that the answer to this question is negative and that herding cannot spread from one part of the market to another. Finally, I bring together information correlation and the network structure and I illustrate the example of a market where there are trading histories such that herd behavior can lead to the complete loss of information and, once herding has started, learning can be recovered only if noise traders enter the market. In the second part of the thesis I build a signalling model of delegated portfolio management where the manager can be of different qualities which affect the performance of the closed-end fund under his management. I find that in his effort to appear of high quality, the manager sends signals to the market which affect the share price of the fund in such a way that momentum and reversal are generated. While in the momentum phase, the price accumulates a discount with respect to its net asset value; during the reversal phase, the discount narrows and the price reverses back towards the net asset value of the fund.

Noise Traders and Herding Behavior

Noise Traders and Herding Behavior
Author: Lee Scott Redding
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 16
Release: 1996-09-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1451947968

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Recent developments in financial economics have included many explorations into market microstructure, that is, the internal functioning of markets and the ways in which they provide liquidity to traders. An important contribution of this literature is that prices can deviate from their fundamental values. This paper describes models of imperfect liquidity and improperly processed information in financial markets, focusing on the noise trader and investor herding literature. The motivations for this line of research are presented, followed by a description of some of the major contributions and tests of some of their empirical implications.

The Survival of Noise Traders in Financial Markets

The Survival of Noise Traders in Financial Markets
Author: J. Bradford De Long
Publisher:
Total Pages: 44
Release: 1988
Genre: Capitalists and financiers
ISBN:

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We use the revised estimates of U.S. GNP constructed by Christina Romer (1989) to assess the time-series properties of U.S. output per capita over the past century. We reject at conventional significance levels the null that output is a random walk in favor of the alternative that output is a stationary autoregressive process about a linear deterministic trend. The difference between the lack of persistence of output shocks either before WWII or over the entire century, on the one hand, and the strong signs of persistence of output shocks found by Campbell and Mankiw (1987) and by Nelson and Plosser (1982) for more recent periods is striking. It suggests to us a Keynesian interpretation of the large unit root in post-WWII U.S. output: perhaps post-WWII output shocks appear persistent because automatic stabilizers and other demand-management policies have substantially damped the transitory fluctuations that made up the pre-WWH Bums-Mitchell business cycle.

The Economic Consequences of Noise Traders

The Economic Consequences of Noise Traders
Author: J. Bradford De Long
Publisher:
Total Pages: 44
Release: 1987
Genre: Capitalists and financiers
ISBN:

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The claim that financial markets are efficient is backed by an implicit argument that misinformed "noise traders" can have little influence on asset prices in equilibrium. If noise traders' beliefs are sufficiently different from those of rational agents to significantly affect prices, then noise traders will buy high and sell low. They will then lose money relative to rational investors and eventually be eliminated from the market. We present a simple overlapping-generations model of the stock market in which noise traders with erroneous and stochastic beliefs (a) significantly affect prices and (b) earn higher returns than do rational investors. Noise traders earn high returns because they bear a large amount of the market risk which the presence of noise traders creates in the assets that they hold: their presence raises expected returns because sophisticated investors dislike bearing the risk that noise traders may be irrationally pessimistic and push asset prices down in the future. The model we present has many properties that correspond to the "Keynesian" view of financial markets. (i) Stock prices are more volatile than can be justified on the basis of news about underlying fundamentals. (ii) A rational investor concerned about the short run may be better off guessing the guesses of others than choosing an appropriate P portfolio. (iii) Asset prices diverge frequently but not permanently from average values, giving rise to patterns of mean reversion in stock and bond prices similar to those found directly by Fama and French (1987) for the stock market and to the failures of the expectations hypothesis of the term structure. (iv) Since investors in assets bear not only fundamental but also noise trader risk, the average prices of assets will be below fundamental values; one striking example of substantial divergence between market and fundamental values is the persistent discount on closed-end mutual funds, and a second example is Mehra and Prescott's (1986) finding that American equiti

Essays on Algorithmic Trading

Essays on Algorithmic Trading
Author: Markus Gsell
Publisher: Columbia University Press
Total Pages: 228
Release: 2010-07-09
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 3838201140

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Technological innovations are altering the traditional value chain in securities trading. Hitherto the order handling, i.e. the appropriate implementation of a general trading decision into particular orders, has been a core competence of brokers. Labeled as Algorithmic Trading, the automation of this task recently found its way both into the brokers' portfolio of service offerings as well as to their customers' trading desks. The software performing the order handling thereby constantly monitors the market(s) in real-time and further evaluates historical data to dynamically determine appropriate points in time for trading. Within only a few years, this technology propagated itself among market participants along the entire value chain and has nowadays gained a significant market share on securities markets worldwide. Surprisingly, there has been only little research analyzing the impact of this special type of trading on markets. Markus Gsell's book aims at closing this gap by analyzing the drivers for adoption of this technology, the impact the application of this technology has on markets on a macro level, i.e. how the market outcome is affected, as well as on a micro level, i.e. how the exhibited trading behavior of these automated traders differs from normal traders' behavior.