Essays on International Financial Spillovers and Sovereign Default Risk

Essays on International Financial Spillovers and Sovereign Default Risk
Author: Hamid Reza Tabarraei
Publisher:
Total Pages: 187
Release: 2014
Genre:
ISBN:

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The goal of this thesis is to present theoretical and empirical investigations of mechanisms through which sovereign crises propagate across countries. In particular, I analyze the spillover effects of the European debt cri sis on emerging economies and on the banking system in Europe. The thesis includes four chapters in which the transmission mechanisms are analyzed from different angles. Chapter 1 and chapter \2 present theoretical models of sovereign contagion risk and sovereign default risk based on the literature of global games. Chapter 3 analyses empirically the role of international banking flows in propagating the Euro debt crisis t emerging economies. Finally, chapter 4 presents a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium mod (DSGE) to examine the impact of sovereign default risk on the banking system and the role of banks as financial intermediaries in transmitting shocks to the real economy.

Essays on Sovereign Default

Essays on Sovereign Default
Author:
Publisher:
Total Pages: 78
Release: 2013
Genre:
ISBN:

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This dissertation consists of three independent essays on sovereign default. In the first chapter, I develop a quantitative general equilibrium model of sovereign default to account for spillover of default risk across countries. When the collateral constraint for investors binds due to a decrease in the value of collateral, triggered by a high default risk for one country, credit constrained investors ask for liquidity premiums even to countries with normal fundamentals. This increase in the cost of borrowing increases incentives to default for the other countries with normal fundamentals, further constraining investors in obtaining credit through a decrease in the value of collateral. The quantitative results show that this model can generate spillover of default risk across countries. The essay in the second chapter introduces endogenous capital accumulation to a quantitative model of sovereign default based on Eaton and Gersovitz (1981). With a production technology in the model, output and interest rates are jointly determined by the interaction between a sovereign government who can optimally default and foreign creditors taking into account default risk. Adding investment enables the model to generate unique economic dynamics similar to those observed around emerging economies' default crises: (1) Emerging economies' debt crises display a boom-bust pattern. (2) A non-negligible fraction of sovereign defaults occur in good times. The essay in the third chapter explains why emerging economies borrow abroad in foreign currency. We present a two-period model in which foreign lenders offer a small open economy an optimal self-enforcing contract in which borrowing is denominated in borrowers' currency. Taking into account the government's incentive to inflate away the debt, the optimal lending contract provides consumption insurance for the economy in that the contract allows the economy for inflation in bad times but asks for deflation in good times. As the variance of income shocks for the economy increases, it gets more difficult for the contract to satisfy the incentive compatible constraints at the good income state. The numerical results are consistent with the fact that emerging economies with high income volatility suffer from "Original Sin".

Sovereign Default Risk and Private Sector Access to Capital in Emerging Markets

Sovereign Default Risk and Private Sector Access to Capital in Emerging Markets
Author: Mr.Udaibir S. Das
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 40
Release: 2010-01-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1451961944

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Top down spillovers of sovereign default risk can have serious consequences for the private sector in emerging markets. This paper analyzes the effects of these spillovers using firm-level data from 31 emerging market economies. We assess how sovereign risk affects corporate access to international capital markets, in the form of external credit (loans and bond issuances) and equity issuances. The study first analyzes the impact of sovereign debt crises during the 1980s and 1990s. It goes on to examine the 1993 to 2007 period, using additional measures of sovereign risk-sovereign bond spreads and sovereign ratings-as explanatory variables. Overall, we find that sovereign default risk is a crucial determinant of private sector access to capital, be it external debt or equity. We also find that crisis resolution patterns matter and that defaults towards private creditors have stronger adverse consequences than defaults to official creditors.

Essays on Sovereign Default

Essays on Sovereign Default
Author: JungJae Park
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2013
Genre:
ISBN:

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This dissertation consists of three independent essays on sovereign default. In the first chapter, I develop a quantitative general equilibrium model of sovereign default to account for spillover of default risk across countries. When the collateral constraint for investors binds due to a decrease in the value of collateral, triggered by a high default risk for one country, credit constrained investors ask for liquidity premiums even to countries with normal fundamentals. This increase in the cost of borrowing increases incentives to default for the other countries with normal fundamentals, further constraining investors in obtaining credit through a decrease in the value of collateral. The quantitative results show that this model can generate spillover of default risk across countries. The essay in the second chapter introduces endogenous capital accumulation to a quantitative model of sovereign default based on Eaton and Gersovitz (1981). With a production technology in the model, output and interest rates are jointly determined by the interaction between a sovereign government who can optimally default and foreign creditors taking into account default risk. Adding investment enables the model to generate unique economic dynamics similar to those observed around emerging economies' default crises: (1) Emerging economies' debt crises display a boom-bust pattern. (2) A non-negligible fraction of sovereign defaults occur in good times. The essay in the third chapter explains why emerging economies borrow abroad in foreign currency. We present a two-period model in which foreign lenders offer a small open economy an optimal self-enforcing contract in which borrowing is denominated in borrowers' currency. Taking into account the government's incentive to inflate away the debt, the optimal lending contract provides consumption insurance for the economy in that the contract allows the economy for inflation in bad times but asks for deflation in good times. As the variance of income shocks for the economy increases, it gets more difficult for the contract to satisfy the incentive compatible constraints at the good income state. The numerical results are consistent with the fact that emerging economies with high income volatility suffer from "Original Sin".

Sovereign Debt

Sovereign Debt
Author: Rob Quail
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Total Pages: 435
Release: 2011-02-25
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1118017552

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An intelligent analysis of the dangers, opportunities, and consequences of global sovereign debt Sovereign debt is growing internationally at a terrifying rate, as nations seek to prop up their collapsing economies. One only needs to look at the sovereign risk pressures faced by Greece, Spain, and Ireland to get an idea of how big this problem has become. Understanding this dilemma is now more important than ever, that's why Robert Kolb has compiled Sovereign Debt. With this book as your guide, you'll gain a better perspective on the essential issues surrounding sovereign debt and default through discussions of national defaults, systemic risk, associated costs, and much more. Historical studies are also included to provide a realistic framework of reference. Contains up-to-date research and analysis on sovereign debt from today's leading practitioners and academics Details the dangers of defaults and their associated systemic risks Explores the past, present, and future of sovereign debt The repercussions of a national default are all-encompassing as global markets are intricately interwoven in the modern world. Sovereign Debt examines what it will take to overcome the challenges of this market and how you can deal with the uncertainty surrounding it.

Essays on Sovereign Default

Essays on Sovereign Default
Author: Tiago Gomes da Silva Tavares
Publisher:
Total Pages: 124
Release: 2015
Genre: Debts, External
ISBN:

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"This dissertation contributes to literature of International Economics and, in particular, of Sovereign Default with the study of three distinct issues. In the first chapter, I study the role of international reserves in sovereign debt restructuring episodes when fiscal adjustment is costly. This study departs from the observation that highly indebted developing economies commonly also hold large external reserves. This behavior seems puzzling given that governments in these countries borrow with an interest rate penalty to compensate lenders for default risk. Reducing debt to the same extent as reserves would maintain net liabilities constant while decreasing interest payments. However, holding reserves can have insurance benefits in a financial crisis. To rationalize the levels of international reserves and external debt observed in the data, a standard dynamic model of equilibrium default is extended to include distortionary taxation and debt restructuring. This chapter shows that fiscal adjustments induced by sovereign default can generate large demand for reserves if taxation is distortionary. At the same time, a non-negligible position in reserves modifies the debt restructuring negotiations upon default. A calibrated version of the model produces recovery rate schedules that are increasing with reserves, as seen in the data, being also able to replicate large positions of reserves and debt to GDP. Finally, I study how both mechanisms play a key quantitative role to generate such result, in fact, not including them, produces a counterfactual demand for reserves that is close to zero. In the second chapter, the relationship between labor market distortions and sovereign debt crises is explored. It is noted that risk of sovereign debt default has frequently affected both emerging market and developed economies. Such financial crises are often accompanied with severe declines of employment that are hard to justify using a standard dynamic stochastic model. In this chapter, I document that a labor wedge deteriorates substantially around swift reversals of current accounts or default episodes. I propose and evaluate two different explanations for these movements by linking the wedges to changes in labor taxes and in the cost of working capital. With these two features included, a dynamic model of equilibrium default is able to replicate the behavior of the labor wedge observed in the data around financial crisis. In the model, higher interest rates are propagated into larger costs of hiring labor through the presence of working capital. As an economy is hit with a stream of bad productivity shocks, the incentives to default become stronger, thus increasing the cost of debt. This reduces firm demand for labor and generates a labor wedge. A similar effect is obtained with a countercyclical tax rate policy. The model is used to shed light on the recent events of the Euro Area debt crisis and in particular of the Greek default event. Finally, in the third chapter, I develop a debt-to-output decomposition and document that a large fraction of the increase in the debt to output ratio during default is accounted by variations in the exchange rate. Also, using a large dataset on historical sovereign debt crises, it is shown in this chapter that devaluations of the exchange rate during periods of default are positively associated with international investor losses (haircuts) when debt is restructured. These results can be rationalized with the fact that large real devaluation decrease output when measured in foreign goods, thus reducing the availability of resources that can be used during negotiations. This implies that exchange rate fluctuations are an important source of risk in emerging economies affecting, among other things, debt dynamics and restructuring outcomes. As such, I conclude that most of the exchange rate neglect, typical in the sovereign default literature, should be seriously reconsidered"--Pages iii-v.

Three Essays on Sovereign Debt and Financial Markets

Three Essays on Sovereign Debt and Financial Markets
Author: Mauro Alessandro
Publisher:
Total Pages: 94
Release: 2011
Genre:
ISBN:

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This dissertation analyzes different aspects of the actions of borrowing and repaying debts by governments in both domestic and international financial markets. In Chapter 1, which is co-authored with Guido Sandleris and Alejandro Van der Ghote, we use a unique dataset on sovereign bond issuances and syndicated bank loans to study the duration and determinants of the periods of exclusion from international credit markets that usually follow governments' defaults. Among other results, we find that countries either reaccess the markets in the first years after a default or have to wait much longer to do it, and that political stability significantly increases the chances of reaccessing the market. We present a political economy model of endogenous sovereign borrowing and market reaccess that matches these two features of the data. In Chapter 2, 1 study the relation between the domestic financial system's market structure, the allocation of government debt and the cost of credit for the government. The fact that governments are less likely to repudiate their debts when there are more domestic agents among their creditors creates an externality: when domestic investors demand government bonds, they reduce the probability of default and improve the situation of every other bondholder. The concentration of investment decisions in fewer financial institutions increases the degree of internalization of this effect, expands the demand for government bonds by domestic agents and reduces the cost of credit for the government. In Chapter 3, I propose a mechanism that can explain the observed positive correlation between public and private spreads, taking into account that domestic banks tend to be heavily exposed to sovereign debt. Firms have private information about the results of their projects, information that can be obtained by domestic banks, as long as they pay a verification cost, but not by foreign creditors. A sovereign default has a negative impact on domestic banks, reduces their verification capacity and increases the incentives for firms to declare themselves insolvent. Consequently, risks of sovereign and private defaults are positively correlated.

Essays on Sovereign Debt and Monetary Economics

Essays on Sovereign Debt and Monetary Economics
Author: Diego J. Perez
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2015
Genre:
ISBN:

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This dissertation contains three essays on Sovereign Debt and Monetary Economics. The first chapter, entitled 'Sovereign Debt, Domestic Banks and the Provision of Public Liquidity' studies the effect of a sovereign default in the domestic economy and its implications for the government's incentives to repay its debt. I explore two mechanisms through which a sovereign default can disrupt the domestic economy via its banking system. First, a sovereign default creates a negative balance-sheet effect on banks, which reduces their ability to raise funds and prevents the flow of resources to productive investments. Second, default undermines internal liquidity as banks replace government securities with less productive investments. I quantify the model using Argentinean data and find that these two mechanisms can generate a deep and persistent fall in output post-default, which accounts for the government's commitment necessary to explain observed levels of external public debt. The balance-sheet effect is more important because it generates a larger output cost of default and a stronger ex-ante commitment for the government. Post-default bailouts of the banking system, although desirable ex-post, are welfare reducing ex-ante since they weaken government's commitment. Imposing a minimum public debt requirement on banks is welfare improving as it enhances commitment by increasing the output cost of default. The second chapter, entitled 'Sovereign Debt Maturity Structure Under Asymmetric Information' studies the optimal choice of sovereign debt maturity when investors are unaware of the government's willingness to repay. Under a pooling equilibrium there is a wedge between the borrower's true default risk and the default risk priced in debt, and the size of this wedge differs with the maturity of debt. Long-term debt becomes less attractive for safe borrowers since it pools more default risk that is not inherent to them. In response, safe borrowers issue low levels of debt with a shorter maturity profile -relative to the optimal choice under perfect information- and risky borrowers mimic the behavior of safe borrowers to preclude the market from identifying their type. In times of financial distress, the default risk wedge of long-term debt relative to short-term debt increases which makes borrowers reduce the amount of debt issuance and shorten its maturity profile. I present empirical evidence on sovereign debt maturity choices and sovereign spreads for a panel of emerging economies that is consistent with the model's implications. The third chapter, entitled 'Price Setting Under Uncertainty About Inflation', is based on a working paper coauthored with Andres Drenik. This chapter provides an empirical assessment of the effects of the availability of public information about inflation on price setting. We exploit an event in which economic agents lost access to information about the inflation rate: starting in 2007 the Argentinean government began to misreport the national inflation rate. Our difference-in-difference analysis reveals that this policy led to an increase in the coefficient of variation of prices of 18% with respect to its mean. This effect is analyzed in the context of a general equilibrium model in which agents make use of publicly available information about the inflation rate to set prices. We quantify the model and use it to further explore the effects of higher uncertainty about inflation on the effectiveness of monetary policy and aggregate welfare. We find that monetary policy becomes more effective in a context of higher uncertainty about inflation and that not reporting accurate measures of the CPI entails significant welfare losses.

Essays on Sovereign Default and the Link with the Domestic Economy

Essays on Sovereign Default and the Link with the Domestic Economy
Author: Eugenia Andreasen
Publisher:
Total Pages: 61
Release: 2012
Genre: Debts, Public
ISBN:

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This thesis studies the causes and consequences of sovereign defaults focusing on non traditional links between sovereign default and the domestic economy: the impact of sovereign defaults on the external financial conditions for the private sector; and the ex-ante implications of the redistributive effects of default and repayment on the political support that the government requires to implement either of these decisions. In the first chapter of my thesis I analyze the worsening of the external financial conditions for the private sector that follows sovereign defaults. To explore the issue I develop a signaling model in which sovereign defaults reveal negative information to foreign lenders regarding the institutional quality in the country. Foreign lenders care about institutional quality because it affects the expected repayment of loans. Therefore, if foreign lenders receive negative information on the institutional quality from the sovereign default they worsen the financial conditions they offer to local firms triggering a sharp reduction in credit and investment (updating effect). The model can rationalize the worsened financial conditions in international capital markets for the private sector observed after default episodes. In the second chapter, a joint work with Guido Sandleris and Alejandro Van der Ghote, we analyze how the presence of political constraints affects sovereign governmentsborrowing and default decisions. We do so in a standard DSGE model with endogenous default risk where we introduce two novel features: heterogeneous agents in the domestic private sector and a requirement that the government obtains some of their support to implement the fiscal program needed to repay the debt. In this framework, we demonstrate that sovereign default can also arise due to insufficient political support and we explore the implications of different income distribution, political systems and tax systems over the repayment decision.

Sovereign Debt Restructurings 1950-2010

Sovereign Debt Restructurings 1950-2010
Author: Mr.Udaibir S. Das
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 128
Release: 2012-08-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1475505531

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This paper provides a comprehensive survey of pertinent issues on sovereign debt restructurings, based on a newly constructed database. This is the first complete dataset of sovereign restructuring cases, covering the six decades from 1950–2010; it includes 186 debt exchanges with foreign banks and bondholders, and 447 bilateral debt agreements with the Paris Club. We present new stylized facts on the outcome and process of debt restructurings, including on the size of haircuts, creditor participation, and legal aspects. In addition, the paper summarizes the relevant empirical literature, analyzes recent restructuring episodes, and discusses ongoing debates on crisis resolution mechanisms, credit default swaps, and the role of collective action clauses.