Effects of Monetary Policy on International Trade in Ethiopia

Effects of Monetary Policy on International Trade in Ethiopia
Author: Gediyon Bekele Moliso
Publisher: GRIN Verlag
Total Pages: 41
Release: 2021-10-25
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 3346521524
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Academic Paper from the year 2021 in the subject Economics - Monetary theory and policy, grade: A, , language: English, abstract: This study examined the effect of monetary policies on Total Trade (proxy of international trade) in Ethiopia between 1989 to 2019.International trade was captured using Total Trade (proxy of international trade) while the independent variables that described the various macroeconomic policies in Ethiopia were money supply, exchange rate, real lending rate and inflation rate. Time series data on the variables of the study was gotten from Annual reports of the National Bank of Ethiopia (NBE) from 1989-2019. The secondary data was analyzed using E-views 9.0 software. A model was formulated for the study. The Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) stationary test showed that the variables in the study were stable at both levels and at first difference. The regression of the independent variables with Total Trade (proxy of international trade) showed the existence of a long run relationship. Using the Autoregressive Distribute Model (ARDL), the empirical results money supply exerts a significant positive effect on Total Trade (proxy of international trade) in the long run while real lending rate and inflation rate exerts a significant negative effect on Total Trade (proxy of international trade) in the long run and Total Trade (proxy of international trade) one period lag of the variable significantly affects the Total Trade (proxy of international trade) in the short run. LagTT or D(LTT(-1)), a one percent increase in expectation push Total Trade (proxy of international trade) by 51% in short run. This result is similar to the theory of adaptive expectations, they states that individuals will form future expectations based on past events. The study thus concluded that the monetary policy channels through which Total Trade (proxy of international trade) in Ethiopia can be influenced are money supply, lending rate and inflation rate. The study testes all the diagnostic test like serial correlation, Normality, heteroschedasticity and stability. The estimate of the speed of adjustment coefficient found in this study indicates that about a 75% of the variation in the Total Trade (proxy of international trade) from its equilibrium level is corrected within a year.

Effects of Monetary Policy on Inflation in Ethiopia. ARDL Co-Integration

Effects of Monetary Policy on Inflation in Ethiopia. ARDL Co-Integration
Author: Gediyon Bekele Moliso
Publisher: GRIN Verlag
Total Pages: 30
Release: 2022-09-12
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 3346721086
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Academic Paper from the year 2022 in the subject Economics - Monetary theory and policy, , language: English, abstract: The goal of this research is to close lack of sufficient, contemporary and comprehensive studies on the topic under study and gain a better understanding of the relationship between monetary policy and Ethiopian inflation. The paper is organized as follows. After this introduction, the following section reviews the relevant literature, both theoretical and empirical. After this review, the methodological framework is presented. A series of test are show to assess the sensibility of the model. The discussion of the results is presented. Finally, some concluding remarks are shown. The monetary policy pursued by a country's Central Bank has a significant impact on the country's economic and financial status. It is commonly acknowledged that maintaining price stability through monetary policy can contribute to long-term growth. When the rate of inflation is low enough, consumers and companies do not have to consider it when making daily decisions, according to Christiano and Fitzgerald. The method, through which a country's monetary authority manages the supply of money, frequently by targeting an interest rate in order to promote economic growth and stability, is known as monetary policy. It is essentially a set of actions performed by monetary authorities, usually the central bank, to control and regulate the supply of money to the public as well as the flow of credit in order to achieve preset macroeconomic objectives. Its stated objective is to maintain relatively steady pricing and low unemployment. All methods of monetary policy, in reality, require changing the amount of base currency in circulation. Open market operations are the open sales and purchases of (government-issued) debt and credit instruments that change the liquidity of the base currency. The monetary authority's constant market operations influence the supply of currency, which has an impact on other market variables including short-term interest rates and the exchange rate.

Effects of Monetary Policy on Inflation in Ethiopia

Effects of Monetary Policy on Inflation in Ethiopia
Author: Gediyon Bekele Moliso
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2022
Genre:
ISBN:
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The main objective of this study is to investigate the effect of monetary policy on inflation in Ethiopia for using annual time-series data from 1988 to 2021. To achieve the goal of this study, the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Approach. The finding of the Bounds test shows that there is a stable long-run relationship in all variables. The empirical results suggest that money supply, the openness of trade and the real effective exchange rate exerts a positive and statistically significant effect on inflation, in the long run, and real gross domestic product and real lending rate have a negative and statistically significant effect on inflation in the long run. The estimate of the speed of adjustment coefficient found in this study indicates that about 21.4 per cent of the variation in the inflation from its equilibrium level is corrected within a year. Based on the findings of the empirical analysis, the study recommends that Spends the money to the economy should not exceed the country's production of goods and services. Government should implement major changes to ensure that more of the money in circulation is in the productive sector.

The Impact of Fiscal Policy Shocks on Ethiopian Economy

The Impact of Fiscal Policy Shocks on Ethiopian Economy
Author: Asmare Workneh Alamrew
Publisher: GRIN Verlag
Total Pages: 77
Release: 2018-12-18
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 3668856044
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Master's Thesis from the year 2017 in the subject Economics - Finance, , language: English, abstract: Fiscal policy is one of the macroeconomic policies which play a decisive role on economic growth; especially in developing economies which have many economic and social bottlenecks. This study examines the impacts of fiscal policy shock on Ethiopian economy; through applying static compatible general equilibrium (Stage CGE) model which allows quantifying the impacts of fiscal instrument shock on the economy and welfare of households. Fiscal problems like small tax revenue and consistent fiscal deficit put its own major influences on developing economies performance. The study uses 2009/10 Ethiopian SAM as an input for the model and applies three simulation scenarios. In the first simulation, tariff cut affects GDP and household welfare negatively. In the second simulation increasing direct tax has negative impact on total GDP. The other alternative simulation scenario is reducing direct tax and which give a positive change on the total GDP. In general, the government should reduce direct tax to improve economic performance. In addition, liberalizing tariff is not advisable for Ethiopian economy.

Monetary Policy Transmission in Emerging Markets and Developing Economies

Monetary Policy Transmission in Emerging Markets and Developing Economies
Author: Mr.Luis Brandao-Marques
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 54
Release: 2020-02-21
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1513529730
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Central banks in emerging and developing economies (EMDEs) have been modernizing their monetary policy frameworks, often moving toward inflation targeting (IT). However, questions regarding the strength of monetary policy transmission from interest rates to inflation and output have often stalled progress. We conduct a novel empirical analysis using Jordà’s (2005) approach for 40 EMDEs to shed a light on monetary transmission in these countries. We find that interest rate hikes reduce output growth and inflation, once we explicitly account for the behavior of the exchange rate. Having a modern monetary policy framework—adopting IT and independent and transparent central banks—matters more for monetary transmission than financial development.

Monetary Transmission Mechanism in the East African Community

Monetary Transmission Mechanism in the East African Community
Author: Mr.Hamid Reza Davoodi
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 59
Release: 2013-02-06
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1475553498
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Do changes in monetary policy affect inflation and output in the East African Community (EAC)? We find that (i) Monetary Transmission Mechanism (MTM) tends to be generally weak when using standard statistical inferences, but somewhat strong when using non-standard inference methods; (ii) when MTM is present, the precise transmission channels and their importance differ across countries; and (iii) reserve money and the policy rate, two frequently used instruments of monetary policy, sometimes move in directions that exert offsetting expansionary and contractionary effects on inflation—posing challenges to harmonization of monetary policies across the EAC and transition to a future East African Monetary Union. The paper offers some suggestions for strengthening the MTM in the EAC.

The Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia

The Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia
Author: International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 79
Release: 2018-01-24
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1484338502
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This IMF Staff Report for 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights that Ethiopia has recorded annual average GDP growth of about ten percent in the last decade, driven by public investments in agriculture and infrastructure. The poverty rate has fallen from 44 percent in 2000 to 23.5 percent in 2015/16. In 2016/17 GDP growth is estimated at 9 percent, as agriculture rebounded from severe drought conditions in 2015/16. Industrial activity expanded, with continued investments in infrastructure and manufacturing. The current account deficit declined in 2016/17 to 8.2 percent of GDP. Over the medium term, growth is expected to remain about 8 percent, supported by sustained expansion in exports and investment.

A Practical Guide to Trade Policy Analysis

A Practical Guide to Trade Policy Analysis
Author: Marc Bacchetta
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2012
Genre: Political Science
ISBN: 9789287038128
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Trade flows and trade policies need to be properly quantified to describe, compare, or follow the evolution of policies between sectors or countries or over time. This is essential to ensure that policy choices are made with an appropriate knowledge of the real conditions. This practical guide introduces the main techniques of trade and trade policy data analysis. It shows how to develop the main indexes used to analyze trade flows, tariff structures, and non-tariff measures. It presents the databases needed to construct these indexes as well as the challenges faced in collecting and processing these data, such as measurement errors or aggregation bias. Written by experts with practical experience in the field, A Practical Guide to Trade Policy Analysis has been developed to contribute to enhance developing countries' capacity to analyze and implement trade policy. It offers a hands-on introduction on how to estimate the distributional effects of trade policies on welfare, in particular on inequality and poverty. The guide is aimed at government experts engaged in trade negotiations, as well as students and researchers involved in trade-related study or research. An accompanying DVD contains data sets and program command files required for the exercises. Copublished by the WTO and the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development

Evolving Monetary Policy Frameworks in Low-Income and Other Developing Countries

Evolving Monetary Policy Frameworks in Low-Income and Other Developing Countries
Author: International Monetary Fund
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 74
Release: 2015-10-23
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1498344062
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Over the past two decades, many low- and lower-middle income countries (LLMICs) have improved control over fiscal policy, liberalized and deepened financial markets, and stabilized inflation at moderate levels. Monetary policy frameworks that have helped achieve these ends are being challenged by continued financial development and increased exposure to global capital markets. Many policymakers aspire to move beyond the basics of stability to implement monetary policy frameworks that better anchor inflation and promote macroeconomic stability and growth. Many of these LLMICs are thus considering and implementing improvements to their monetary policy frameworks. The recent successes of some LLMICs and the experiences of emerging and advanced economies, both early in their policy modernization process and following the global financial crisis, are valuable in identifying desirable features of such frameworks. This paper draws on those lessons to provide guidance on key elements of effective monetary policy frameworks for LLMICs.