Commodity Price Volatility and Inclusive Growth in Low-Income Countries

Commodity Price Volatility and Inclusive Growth in Low-Income Countries
Author: Mr.Rabah Arezki
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 408
Release: 2012-10-24
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1475545193

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In the years following the global financial crisis, many low-income countries experienced rapid recovery and strong economic growth. However, many are now facing enormous difficulties because of rapidly rising food and fuel prices, with the threat of millions of people being pushed into poverty around the globe. The risk of continued food price volatility is a systemic challenge, and a failure in one country has been shown to have a profound impact on entire regions. This volume addresses the challenges of commodity price volatility for low-income countries and explores some macroeconomic policy options for responding to commodity price shocks. The book then looks at inclusive growth policies to address inequality in commodity-exporting countries, particularly natural resource rich countries. Perspectives from the Middle East and North Africa, sub-Saharan Africa, emerging Asia, and Mexico are presented and, finally, the role of the international donor community is examined. This volume is a must read for policymakers everywhere, from those in advanced, donor countries to those in countries with the poorest and most vulnerable populations.

Commodity Price Volatility and the Sources of Growth

Commodity Price Volatility and the Sources of Growth
Author: International Monetary Fund
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 45
Release: 2012-01-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 146395476X

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This paper studies the impact of the level and volatility of the commodity terms of trade on economic growth, as well as on the three main growth channels: total factor productivity, physical capital accumulation, and human capital acquisition. We use the standard system GMM approach as well as a cross-sectionally augmented version of the pooled mean group (CPMG) methodology of Pesaran et al. (1999) for estimation. The latter takes account of cross-country heterogeneity and cross-sectional dependence, while the former controls for biases associated with simultaneity and unobserved country-specific effects. Using both annual data for 1970-2007 and five-year non-overlapping observations, we find that while commodity terms of trade growth enhances real output per capita, volatility exerts a negative impact on economic growth operating mainly through lower accumulation of physical capital. Our results indicate that the negative growth effects of commodity terms of trade volatility offset the positive impact of commodity booms; and export diversification of primary commodity abundant countries contribute to faster growth. Therefore, we argue that volatility, rather than abundance per se, drives the "resource curse" paradox.

Boom Or Bust

Boom Or Bust
Author: Oli Brown
Publisher:
Total Pages: 44
Release: 2008-01-01
Genre: Commodity futures
ISBN: 9781894784047

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Commodities, Governance and Economic Development under Globalization

Commodities, Governance and Economic Development under Globalization
Author: Machiko Nissanke
Publisher: Springer
Total Pages: 396
Release: 2010-01-20
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0230274021

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Alfred Maizels' work on commodity trade and prices documented trends in a major area of international economic relations. This book elaborates the ideas in the tradition of Maizels' contributons, and discusses and extends these theories in relation to current problems.

Commodities and Development Report 2017

Commodities and Development Report 2017
Author: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
Publisher: Food & Agriculture Org.
Total Pages: 98
Release: 2018-11-08
Genre: Political Science
ISBN: 9251099693

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Commodity prices are projected to increase marginally until 2030. The challenge for developing countries is to foster an environment that combines fiscal, sectoral and social policies to prevent price volatility from impacting national economies.

Commodity Prices and Development

Commodity Prices and Development
Author: Roman Grynberg
Publisher: OUP Oxford
Total Pages: 368
Release: 2007-11-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0191528560

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More than 50 developing countries depend on three or fewer commodities for more than half of their exports and, in fact, many rely on a single commodity for a large share of export earnings. This reliance inevitability exposes countries to the risk of export earnings instability as a result of price shocks and, perhaps even more significantly, the falling purchasing power of exports over the long run due to declining real prices. Presenting for the first time a complete analysis of the issues surrounding commodity prices and development, this book is the culmination of three years of research commissioned by the Commonwealth Secretariat to look at various aspects of commodity prices. The problems faced by commodity dependent developing countries are formidable. Although diversification is the most appropriate response to the problem of the secular decline in commodity prices, long-term transformation in the economy can be a slow process and its success will depend on a host of factors such as the development of human resources, institutional capacity building, poverty alleviation, and appropriate domestic policy and environment. By granting increased aid flows and debt relief, and providing assistance to encourage production of non-traditional export items, the international community can play a proactive role in the development of the commodity dependent poor countries. Only concerted efforts both at the domestic fronts of these countries and via co-operation extended by the international community can help mitigate the problems of the world's most vulnerable economies.

Using Markets to Deal with Commodity Price Volatility

Using Markets to Deal with Commodity Price Volatility
Author: Donald Larson
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2012
Genre:
ISBN:

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Commodities are often at the heart of local and sometimes national economies. Commodity prices are notoriously volatile, creating instability and uncertainty for commodity-dependent developing countries. Commodity price instability undermines economic growth and skews the distribution of income. As a result, nearly every government has tried to manage commodity price risks. This Note discusses different sets of commodity pricing policies and the barriers to their risk management.

Commodity Markets

Commodity Markets
Author: John Baffes
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Total Pages: 311
Release: 2022-12-07
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1464819122

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Commodity markets are integral to the global economy. Understanding what drives developments of these markets is critical to the design of policy frameworks that facilitate the economic objectives of sustainable growth, inflation stability, poverty reduction, food security, and the mitigation of climate change. This study is the first comprehensive analysis examining market and policy developments for all commodity groups, including energy, metals, and agriculture, over the past century. It finds that, while the quantity of commodities consumed has risen enormously, driven by population and income growth, the relative importance of commodities has shifted over time, as technological innovation created new uses for some materials and facilitated substitution among commodities. The study also shows that commodity markets are heterogeneous in terms of their drivers, price behavior, and macroeconomic impact on emerging markets and developing economies, and that the relationship between economic growth and commodity demand varies widely across countries, depending on their stage of economic development. Policy frameworks that enable countercyclical macroeconomic responses have become increasingly common—and beneficial. Other policy tools have had mixed outcomes. Discussions about commodity-exporting emerging markets are often based on ideas without empirical or analytical support. This book is a great contribution to improve our understanding of those economies, based on rigorous research. It provides robust empirical evidence including a long-term perspective on commodity prices. It also contains very thoughtful policy analysis, with implications for resilience, macroeconomic policies, and development strategies. It will be a key reference for scholars as well as policy makers. José De Gregorio Dean of the School of Economics and Business Universidad de Chile Former Minister of Economy, Mining and Energy and Former Governor of the Central Bank of Chile A sound understanding of commodity markets is more essential than ever in light of the COVID-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine, and the transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy commodities. This volume offers an excellent, comprehensive, and very timely analysis of the wide range of factors that affect commodity markets. It carefully surveys historical and future trends in commodity supply, demand, and prices, and offers detailed policy proposals to avoid the havoc that turbulent commodity markets can cause on the economies of commodity exporters and importers. Rick Van der Ploeg Research Director of Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource-Rich Economies University of Oxford

Global Commodity Markets and Development Economics

Global Commodity Markets and Development Economics
Author: Stephan Pfaffenzeller
Publisher: Routledge
Total Pages: 197
Release: 2018-01-29
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 131748360X

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The early 21st century has seen a prolonged price boom in non-fuel commodities, coupled with a volatile performance in fuel prices. This new collection presents the latest research on commodity prices and economic development in the context of this changing globalized economy. Global Commodity Markets and Development Economics brings together analyses from a number of perspectives in order to explore commodity price developments. Chapters explore long term commodity trends, the evolution of relative price developments, the relationship of the domestic commodity sector with global supply chains, agri-food prices, and the role of oil markets in the global economy. Through considering a diverse range of countries including China, Russia and the United States, the authors examine key fuel and non-fuel commodity markets and offer a window into important trends and developments. This book will be relevant to those with an interest in development economics, international economics and energy markets.

Links Between Growth, Inequality, and Poverty: A Survey

Links Between Growth, Inequality, and Poverty: A Survey
Author: Ms. Valerie Cerra
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 54
Release: 2021-03-12
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1513572660

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Is there a tradeoff between raising growth and reducing inequality and poverty? This paper reviews the theoretical and empirical literature on the complex links between growth, inequality, and poverty, with causation going in both directions. The evidence suggests that growth can be effective in reducing poverty, but its impact on inequality is ambiguous and depends on the underlying sources of growth. The impact of poverty and inequality on growth is likewise ambiguous, as several channels mediate the relationship. But most plausible mechanisms suggest that poverty and inequality reduce growth, at least in the long run. Policies play a role in shaping these relationships and those designed to improve equality of opportunity can simultaneously improve inclusiveness and growth.