Climate change, agriculture, and potential crop yields in Central Asia

Climate change, agriculture, and potential crop yields in Central Asia
Author: Thomas, Timothy S.
Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Total Pages: 39
Release: 2021-12-31
Genre: Political Science
ISBN:

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Agriculture in Central Asia is vulnerable to climate change due to rising aridity, declining availability of water resources for irrigation, and low adaptive capacity. We use climate data from CMIP5 with RCP8.5 for greenhouse gas emissions and the DSSAT crop model to investigate how yields of key crops in Central Asia will be affected by climate change. We distinguish changes in yields between spring and winter plantings, between irrigated and rainfed crops, and between crops grown with high and low amounts of fertilizer. The results suggest that countries (and areas within countries) that either have moderate summers or grow a number of crops in a relatively cold winter will benefit from climate change, while countries that grow many of the crops in the summer will experience losses.

Looking Beyond the Horizon

Looking Beyond the Horizon
Author: William R. Sutton
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Total Pages: 202
Release: 2013-04-04
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0821397680

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Agriculture is one of the most climate-sensitive of all economic sectors. In many countries, such as the four examined in Looking Beyond the Horizon, the risks of climate change are an immediate and fundamental problem because the majority of the rural population depends either directly or indirectly on agriculture for its livelihood. The risks of climate change to agriculture cannot be eff ectively dealt with--and the opportunities cannot be eff ectively exploited--without a clear plan for aligning agricultural policies with climate change, developing the capabilities of key agricultural institutions, and investing in infrastructure, support services, and on-farm improvements. Developing such a plan ideally involves a combination of high-quality quantitative analysis; consultation with key stakeholders, particularly farmers and local agricultural experts; and investments in both human and physical capital. The diverse experiences of Albania, the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, Moldova, and Uzbekistan, highlighted in this book, show that it is possible to develop a plan to meet these objectives--one that is comprehensive and empirically driven as well as consultative and quick to develop. The approach of this volume is predicated on strong country ownership and participation, and is defi ned by its emphasis on "win-win" or "no regrets" solutions to the multiple challenges posed by climate change for the farmers of Eastern Europe and Central Asia. The solutions are measures that increase resilience to future climate change, boost current productivity despite the greater climate variability already occurring, and limit greenhouse gas emissions--also known as "climate-smart agriculture." Looking Beyond the Horizon draws on the experiences of applying this approach to these four nations in Eastern Europe and Central Asia with the goal of helping each country mainstream climate change adaptation into its agricultural policies, programs, and investments. The book also highlights the projected impacts of climate change on agriculture in these countries through forecast variations in temperature and rainfall patterns, which are crucial to farming, and off ers a map for navigating the risks and realizing the opportunities. Finally, a detailed e xplanation of the approach, as well as lessons learned from its implementation, is provided for those who would like to implement similar programs in other countries of Europe, Central Asia, or anywhere else in the world.

Climate Change and Terrestrial Carbon Sequestration in Central Asia

Climate Change and Terrestrial Carbon Sequestration in Central Asia
Author: Rattan Lal
Publisher: CRC Press
Total Pages: 512
Release: 2007-08-02
Genre: Nature
ISBN: 0203932692

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This book brings together current knowledge of terrestrial C sequestration in Central Asia. The themes treated include: biophysical environments, water resources, sustainable agriculture, soil degradation, the effects of irrigation schemes on secondary salinization, soil management and its relationship to carbon dynamics; the relationship between f

The Effect of Climate and Aerosol on Crop Production

The Effect of Climate and Aerosol on Crop Production
Author: Mehmet Ozdes
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2012
Genre: Agricultural ecology
ISBN:

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The effect of recent climate change in Central Asia poses a significant and potentially serious challenge to the region's agricultural sector. An investigation of the aerosol-climate- crop yield correlation in this region is essential for a better understanding of the effect of aerosols and climate on Central Asian agriculture. Our goal is to investigate the linkages between aerosol, climate and major crop production (cotton, maize, wheat, and rice) in specified agricultural regions in the five Central Asian countries. Our approach is to perform the Pearson's Correlation Coefficient analysis in order to observe the statistical correlation between crop yield, temperature, precipitation, and aerosol optical depth (AOD), for each indicated agricultural region in the selected countries. Besides, using NASA GIOVANNI website tools, we retrieve distribution maps and time series of temperature, precipitation and AOD to facilitate the analyses. The research shows that in some aspects, the relation between AOD, climate, and crop yield is different in Central Asia than in previous global or large scale research hypotheses. The statistical correlations vary not only across countries but also across agricultural regions. For example, in Kazakhstan, opposite correlations exist between precipitation and AOD in two different agricultural regions even though both regions are rain-fed. In the more arid countries (with lower rain rates) such as Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, no correlation exists between crop production and temperature, precipitation, and AOD, while the less arid (with higher rain rate) countries (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan) indicate a positive correlation.

Adaptation to Climate Change in Europe and Central Asia Agriculture

Adaptation to Climate Change in Europe and Central Asia Agriculture
Author: William R. Sutton
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2009
Genre:
ISBN:

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To ensure the viability and competitiveness of agriculture and forestry and sustain rural livelihoods, it is critical to take stock of the impacts of climate change on rural sectors in Europe and Central Asia (ECA) countries and implement appropriate adaptive measures. The interactions between the weather-sensitive agriculture and forestry sectors, climate change, and the natural resource base are highly complex and deserve special attention. Globally, the increased frequency of heat stress, droughts and flooding events caused by climate change threaten to reduce crop yields and livestock productivity in many areas, while increased risks of fires and pest outbreaks will have negative consequences for forests. In this paper, the authors examine the exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity of ECA agriculture to climate change, and provide recommendations for addressing the challenges of climate through adaptation. We have made use of the best available climate change projections to categorize countries in the region by likely agricultural sector impacts. We have also attempted to synthesize information from the literature on climate change adaptation in agriculture in order to identify the most relevant points for ECA countries, including options for technical, institutional and policy measures. Based on this initial assessment, there are plans to support World Bank clients in carrying out assessments and developing strategies at the country level in the near future.

Climate Change

Climate Change
Author: Nelson, Gerald C.
Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Total Pages: 30
Release: 2009
Genre: Political Science
ISBN: 0896295354

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This Food Policy Report presents research results that quantify the climate-change impacts mentioned above, assesses the consequences for food security, and estimates the investments that would offset the negative consequences for human well-being.

Reducing the Vulnerability of Uzbekistan's Agricultural Systems to Climate Change

Reducing the Vulnerability of Uzbekistan's Agricultural Systems to Climate Change
Author: William R. Sutton
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Total Pages: 146
Release: 2013-11-26
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1464800006

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This study brings together the forecast climate change impacts, costs vs. benefits of adaptation measures, and recommendations from the work conducted in Uzbekistan under the World Bank’s program, “Reducing Vulnerability to Climate Change in European and Central Asian Agricultural Systems”

Reducing the Vulnerability of Georgia's Agricultural Systems to Climate Change

Reducing the Vulnerability of Georgia's Agricultural Systems to Climate Change
Author: Nicolas Ahouissoussi
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Total Pages: 139
Release: 2014-05-13
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1464801487

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The impacts of climate change on agricultural systems and rural economies are already evident throughout Europe and Central Asia. This study, Reducing the Vulnerability of Georgia’s Agricultural Systems to Climate Change, provides a menu of options for climate change adaptation in the agricultural and water resources sectors in Georgia.

Crop Adaptation to Climate Change

Crop Adaptation to Climate Change
Author: Shyam Singh Yadav
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Total Pages: 630
Release: 2011-10-25
Genre: Technology & Engineering
ISBN: 0813820162

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A major task of our time is to ensure adequate food supplies for the world's current population (now nearing 7 billion) in a sustainable way while protecting the vital functions and biological diversity of the global environment. The task of providing for a growing population is likely to be even more difficult in view of actual and potential changes in climatic conditions due to global warming, and as the population continues to grow. Current projections suggest that the world's temperatures will rise 1.8-4.0 by 2100 and population may reach 8 billion by the year 2025 and some 9 billion by mid-century, after which it may stabilize. This book addresses these critical issues by presenting the science needed not only to understand climate change effects on crops but also to adapt current agricultural systems, particularly in regard to genetics, to the changing conditions. Crop Adaptation to Climate Change covers a spectrum of issues related to both crops and climatic conditions. The first two sections provide a foundation on the factors involved in climate stress, assessing current climate change by region and covering crop physiological responses to these changes. The third and final section contains chapters focused on specific crops and the current research to improve their genetic adaptation to climate change. Written by an international team of authors, Crop Adaptation to Climate Change is a timely look at the potentially serious consequences of climate change for our global food supply, and is an essential resource for academics, researchers and professionals in the fields of crop science, agronomy, plant physiology and molecular biology; crop consultants and breeders; as well as climate and food scientists.