Assessing Risks Through the Determination of Rare Event Probabilities
Author | : Allan R. Sampson |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 47 |
Release | : 1980 |
Genre | : |
ISBN | : |
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We consider the problem in risk assessment of evaluating the probability of occurrence of rare, but potentially catastrophic, events. The lack of historical data due to the sheer novelty of the event makes conventional statistical approaches inappropriate. The problem is compounded by the complex multivariate dependencies that may exist across potential event sites. In order to evaluate the likelihood of one or more such catastrophic events occuring, we provide an information theoretic model for merging a decision maker's opinion with expert judgment. Also provided is a methodology for the reconciling of conflicting expert judgments. This merging approach is invariant to the decision maker's viewpoint in the limiting case of exceptionally rare events. These methods are applied to case studies in likelihood assessment of Liquid Natural Gas tanker spills and seismic induced light water nuclear reactor meltdowns. (Author).