Revisiting the demand and profitability of chemical fertilizers amid global fuel-food-fertilizer crisis: Evidence from Ethiopia

Revisiting the demand and profitability of chemical fertilizers amid global fuel-food-fertilizer crisis: Evidence from Ethiopia
Author: Assefa, Thomas
Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Total Pages: 40
Release: 2024-07-16
Genre: Political Science
ISBN:

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We revisit the state of smallholder fertilizer demand and profitability in Ethiopia in the face of the recent global fuel–food–fertilizer price crisis triggered by the Russian–Ukraine war and compounded by other domestic supply shocks. We first examine farmers’ response to changes in both fertilizer and food prices by estimating price elasticity of demand. We then revisit the profitability of fertilizer by computing average value–cost ratios (AVCRs) associated with fertilizer application before and after these crises. We use three-round detailed longitudinal household survey data, covering both pre-crisis (2016 and 2019) and post-crisis (2023) production periods, focusing on three main staple crops in Ethiopia (maize, teff, and wheat). Our analysis shows that fertilizer adoption, use, and yield levels were increasing until the recent crises, but these trends seem halted by these crises. We also find relatively large fertilizer price elasticity of demand estimates, ranging between 0.4 and 1.1, which vary across crops and are substantially larger than previous estimates. We find suggestive evidence that households with smaller farm sizes are relatively more responsive to changes in fertilizer prices. We also document that farmers’ response to increases in staple crop prices is not as strong as perceived and hence appears to be statistically insignificant. Finally, we show important dynamics in the profitability of chemical fertilizer. While the AVCRs show profitable trends for most crops, the share of farmers with profitable AVCRs declined following the fertilizer price surge. Our findings offer important insights for policy focusing on mitigating the adverse effects of fertilizer price shocks.

The Effects of Changing Fertilizer Production Costs on U.S. Agricultural Markets

The Effects of Changing Fertilizer Production Costs on U.S. Agricultural Markets
Author: Braydon Minear
Publisher:
Total Pages: 85
Release: 2015
Genre:
ISBN:

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This and prior studies of the U.S. fertilizer industry have been motivated by possible environmental risks associated with the over-application of fertilizer and the uncertainty surrounding volatility in fertilizer prices. Previous research, which mainly focused on demand, econometrically analyzed the U.S. fertilizer industry in a simultaneous supply and demand, partial equilibrium framework. This study builds on prior work by estimating a partial equilibrium model with a simultaneous supply and demand framework of nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium fertilizer markets and linking it to an existing U.S. agriculture model system in order to quantify and examine the impacts of fertilizer production cost changes on crop prices and other key agricultural economic variables. More specifically, this study evaluates the effects of a natural gas, sulfur and electric power price change on key economic variables in the U.S. fertilizer and agricultural commodity markets. The results of these three scenarios indicate that an increase in domestic fertilizer production costs might cause agricultural producers to shift production acres from crops with intensive fertilizer usage to other alternatives. Additionally, changes in domestic fertilizer production costs have a small to nearly nonexistent effect on fertilizer usage and agricultural commodity markets. These observations could provide useful insight for environmental policy makers. The observed low responsiveness demonstrates that a large domestic fertilizer input price change would be required to invoke changes in the agricultural sector. This finding also attests to the inelasticity of demand for fertilizer, supporting the common notion that U.S. agricultural production is highly dependent on fertilizer use.

Expected impacts of increases in international prices of fertilizer in Rwanda: Estimates from a microsimulation

Expected impacts of increases in international prices of fertilizer in Rwanda: Estimates from a microsimulation
Author: Spielman, David J.
Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Total Pages: 12
Release: 2022-03-21
Genre: Political Science
ISBN:

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International fertilizer prices have increased rapidly since 2020 due to multiple factors. This note assesses the impact of these price increases on Rwanda’s agriculture sector, with an emphasis on implications for crop production, subsidy costs, and the Government of Rwanda’s agricultural budget. Using data from the Seasonal Agricultural Surveys, we simulate the impact of increasing fertilizer prices on fertilizer demand and use, which in turn affects fertilizer value-cost ratios at the plot level and, ultimately, maize, rice, and Irish potato output and the Government’s fertilizer subsidy bill. Findings indicate the following • At current subsidy rates and market prices, national output across all seasons could decrease by up to 3 percent for maize, 2 percent for rice, and 12 percent for Irish potato under strong assumptions about farmers’ sensitivity to fertilizer prices. Weaker assumptions about their sensitivity result in much smaller decreases in output. • At current subsidy rates and market prices, the fertilizer subsidy bill may increase from 7 percent of MINAGRI’s budget—inclusive of funds earmarked for districts—to 12 percent. Ultimately, the policy challenge will be to determine whether a return to the original subsidy levels and rates is feasible and under what conditions. In the short term, volatility in international fertilizer prices may continue, particularly in light of the conflict in Ukraine, making it necessary to maintain the current subsidy regime. But I the medium term, it is possible to move towards market prices for fertilizer without dramatically affecting output, thereby providing more fiscal space for other priorities.

Fertilizer Supply, Demand, and Prices

Fertilizer Supply, Demand, and Prices
Author: United States. Congress. Senate. Committee on Agriculture and Forestry. Subcommittee on Agricultural Credit and Rural Electrification
Publisher:
Total Pages: 520
Release: 1974
Genre: Fertilizer industry
ISBN:

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Fertilizer Pricing

Fertilizer Pricing
Author: Vidya Sagar
Publisher:
Total Pages: 188
Release: 1993
Genre: Agricultural subsidies
ISBN:

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Articles, chiefly related to the Indian scene.