An Empirical Analysis of Semi-Month and Turn of the Month Effects in Indian Stock Market

An Empirical Analysis of Semi-Month and Turn of the Month Effects in Indian Stock Market
Author: Dr. P. Nageswari Sathish
Publisher:
Total Pages: 1
Release: 2020
Genre:
ISBN:

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The efficiency of the capital market raises various issues all over the world. Earlier research studies give evidence that the capital markets are informational efficient and hence, cannot outperform the market consistently on the basis of price change predictions. However, some researchers have also brought into light seasonal effects/calendar anomalies in the developed markets. This paper investigates one such anomaly (Semi-month and Turn of the month effects) in an emerging Indian Capital Market. The S&P CNX Nifty and BSE Sensex Index data have been collected and analyzed for a period of six years from 1st January 2005 to 31st December 2010. The analysis of the study found that the semi-month and turn of the Month Effect not exists in Indian Stock Market during the study period.

An Empirical Study on Seasonal Analysis in the Indian Stock Market

An Empirical Study on Seasonal Analysis in the Indian Stock Market
Author: Dr. P. Nageswari Sathish
Publisher:
Total Pages: 1
Release: 2020
Genre:
ISBN:

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The presence of the Seasonal or Monthly Effect in stock returns has been reported in several developed and emerging stock markets. This study investigates the existence of seasonality in India's stock market. The Efficient Market Hypothesis suggests that all securities are priced efficiently to fully reflect all the information intrinsic in the asset. The Seasonal Effects create higher or lower returns depending on the Time Series. They are called Anomalies because they cannot be explained by traditional asset pricing models. Examples of such patterns include e.g. the January Effect, the Day-of-the Week Effect and the Week of the Month Effect etc. Studies on the Seasonal Effects in the Indian Stock Market are limited. In an attempt to fill this gap, this study explores the Indian Stock Market's Efficiency in the 'weak form' in the context of Seasonal Effects. The objective of this paper is to explore the Seasonal Effect on the Indian Stock Market. For the purpose this analysis BSE Sensex index was chosen for a period of ten years from 1st April 2000 to 31st March 2010. The study found that the Day of the Week Effect and Monthly Effect Pattern did not appear to exist in the Indian Stock Market during the study period.

Market Efficiency in Emerging Economies

Market Efficiency in Emerging Economies
Author: Deepa Mangala
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2013
Genre:
ISBN:

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This paper investigates the presence of month-of-the-year effect in the stock index returns and volatility of emerging stock markets using GARCH (1, 1) model. The results show that the months around the end of the year and beginning of the New Year are marked by significant positive mean returns. This is evident from the presence of November/December/January effect in Argentine, Indian, Malaysian and Russian stock market returns. The months in the third quarter of the year, i.e., August and September, exhibit statistically significant negative mean coefficients for a majority of the stock markets. The volatility patterns are country-specific and no general trend can be discerned.

An Empirical Analysis of January Anomaly in the Indian Stock Market

An Empirical Analysis of January Anomaly in the Indian Stock Market
Author: Dr. P. Nageswari Sathish
Publisher:
Total Pages: 1
Release: 2020
Genre:
ISBN:

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Any anomaly, including January Anomaly, would enable the investors and speculators to gain abnormal returns. The presence of January Anomaly defeats the basic premises of the efficient market hypothesis. Besides, it has greater implications for the design of investment strategy in the long run. This paper seeks to find out whether the 'January Anomaly', found in many countries, is also found in the fast developing Indian Markets. The study used the logarithmic data for S&P CNX Nifty and S&P CNX 500 sample indices and applied the Dummy Variable Regression Model from 1st April 2002 to 31st March 2011. It is found that the highest mean return was earned in December and the lowest/ negative mean return earned in January Month for S&P CNX Nifty index. The S&P CNX 500 Index recorded the Highest Mean Return in the Month of March and the Highest Negative Mean Returns in the Month of January. It is found that there was significant difference in the mean returns among the different months of the year. The analytical results of seasonality indicate the absence of January Anomaly during the study period.

Study of Calendar Anomalies in Indian Stock Markets

Study of Calendar Anomalies in Indian Stock Markets
Author: Neeraj Amarnani
Publisher:
Total Pages: 16
Release: 2014
Genre:
ISBN:

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Stock market anomalies can be broadly categorized as calendar, fundamental and technical anomalies. Calendar anomalies however are among the most discussed issues in the financial literature. This is because these anomalies are the primary contributors towards the abnormalities in the stock returns. Calendar anomalies are basically defined as an irregular pattern of stock returns which are based on a calendar year. This paper attempts to determine the existence of calendar anomalies, namely, Day of the week effect, Turn of the month effect and Month of the year effect in Indian stock market. Daily data of Sensex and Nifty for the period of 1993-2013 is analyzed using different statistical techniques. The tests indicate absence of significant day of the week effect and month of the year effect, while significant turn of the month effect is observed. There are multiple hypotheses associated with anomalies, but only turn of the month stands valid for Indian context.

Price Earning Ratio Effect

Price Earning Ratio Effect
Author: VDMV. Lakshmi
Publisher:
Total Pages: 8
Release: 2013
Genre:
ISBN:

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Proponents of Semi strong form of Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) claim that security prices fully reflect all publicly available information in a rapid and unbiased manner. Opponents of this Hypothesis question its validity by explaining various anomalies in stock markets. One such anomaly that they elucidate is Price Earning (P/E) ratio Effect, which is based on the premise that P/E ratios are indicators of the investment performance of a security and low P/E stocks have a tendency to outperform high P/E stocks even after adjusting for underlying risks.The purpose of the study is to empirically test the relationship between P/E ratios and equity returns in Indian stock market based on monthly stock returns of 90 companies during the period April 2006 - June 2012 and thereby to examine the validity of semi strong form of EMH. The study applies Jensen, Sharpe and Treynor measures, which are based on Sharpe-Linter Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) to test the risk- return relationships of these portfolios and to compare whether portfolio of low P/E stocks outperforms the portfolio of High P/E stocks. The study attempts to test, if there is any statistically significant difference between the returns of such a portfolio and a simple buy and old strategy. The study also attempts to examine if there is any statistically significant difference between the returns of Lowest P/E portfolio and Highest P/E portfolio using an alternative specification of CAPM. The findings of the study explain the superior performance of low P/E portfolio to high P/E portfolio, indicating the premium associated with cheap stock.

Efficient Market Hypothesis and Calendar Effects

Efficient Market Hypothesis and Calendar Effects
Author: Harish Kumar
Publisher:
Total Pages: 17
Release: 2017
Genre:
ISBN:

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The Efficient Market hypothesis is a cornerstone of modern investment theory that essentially advocates the futility of information in generation of abnormal returns in capital markets over a period of time. However, the existence of anomalies challenge the notion of efficiency in stock markets. Calendar effects, in particular, violate the weak form of efficiency, highlighting the role of past patterns and seasonality in estimating future prices. The present research aims to study the efficiency in Indian stock markets. Using daily and monthly returns of NIFTY 50 data from its inception in January 1995 to December 2015, we employ dummy variable multiple linear regression technique to assess the existence of calendar effects in India stock markets. To correct for volatility clustering and ARCH effect present in the daily returns, the results are modeled using the EGARCH estimation methodology. The study reveals the existence of calendar effects in India in form of a significant Wednesday Effect as well as a significant 'December effect', thereby suggesting that the Indian stock markets do not show informational efficiency even in the weak form, a trait observable in emerging markets.

Turn-of-the Month Effect for the European Stock Market

Turn-of-the Month Effect for the European Stock Market
Author: Firoozeh Kolahi
Publisher:
Total Pages: 64
Release: 2006
Genre: Stock exchanges
ISBN:

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A central challenge to the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) is the existence of stock market anomalies. The current study tries to examine turn of month effect on two European markets. This allows us to examine whether the seasonal patterns usually found in US data are also present in European data. According to the results, the average return for European stocks is higher for the last day of calendar months and the very first days of the following calendar months. The monthly effect is independent of other known calendar anomalies such as January effect documented by others, and also the results are consistent with the US results.

Semi-Strong Form Efficiency of Indian Stock Market in Post-Reform Period

Semi-Strong Form Efficiency of Indian Stock Market in Post-Reform Period
Author: Dr Madhuchhanda Lahiri
Publisher: Walnut Publication
Total Pages: 277
Release: 2021-06-26
Genre: Antiques & Collectibles
ISBN: 9391145787

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The Efficient Market Hypothesis is an elegant edifice that provides a basis on which the efficiency tests of a stock market are performed at three distinct levels: weak - form, semi-strong form and strong - form. This magnificent edifice of EMH rests on the Random Walk Theory which contends that all price changes reflect a random departure from previous prices. The weak form of the hypothesis states that prices efficiently reflect all information contained in the past series of stock prices whereas the semi-strong form efficiency contends that security prices factor in publicly available information in the market and that the price changes to new equilibrium levels are reflections of that information. The book checks the weak-form and semi-strong form efficiency of the Indian stock market by examining the behaviour of the stock prices in the Indian stock market after the introduction of the various financial sector reforms using different methodologies. By using NSE data over the period 1998-2005 - the period which witnessed some major crises, scams, intense capital market activities and introduction of many new financial instruments - the study examines the information contents of historical stock price data, quarterly earnings announcements, and stock splits. The book also checks for the presence of the Day-of- the- Week Effect in the Indian stock market and enquires whether the introduction of the various instruments and policy changes have made the Indian stock market weak-form and semi-strong form efficient i.e., whether the efficiency of the stock market has been restored in the post-reforms period compared to the situation in the pre-reform period.